Because there is nothing in Korea worth risking American cities
Biden must leave North Korea if he wants a pragmatic approach to it
Kim Jong Un worked to develop North Korea's missile capabilities.
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Biden is right to seek negotiations with North Korea, especially to curb its nuclear ambitions.
A.F.B.
Like his parents, Kim Jong Un made many threats against the United States.
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The administration of the US President, Joe Biden, has completed its review of its North Korea policy, and the result was surprisingly logical. A senior administration official, who declined to be named, told the Washington Post: “We are not seeking a big bargain or an approach It provides us with everything or nothing, ”an approach that led to the failure of former President Donald Trump’s efforts in personal diplomacy. Threats to the United States ».
It is fair to wish the administration success in its efforts, but Biden officials are more likely to succeed if they can accurately diagnose the problem.
Although it is common to talk about North Korea's threats to America, the question arises: How dangerous is this threat?
rationality
Although North Korea’s leaders are usually described as a bunch of madmen and ready to launch a suicide attack against the United States, Kim Jong Il, the father of the current president Kim Jong Un, viewed matters with his big glasses with rationality, and it is known that North Korean rulers From the three Kim family, they acted rationally, playing an important role in transforming a small, poor and isolated country into a global cause.
Although the founder of the state, Kim Il-sung, launched a powerful war, he did so only when he felt capable of winning it, after winning the support of the Soviet Union and China. And Kim Yong Il made major military incitements in 2010, but he showed skill and ingenuity in stopping before the military response from South Korea, and was distinguished by his liberal thinking, but he had a military threat and worked to develop North Korea's missile capabilities, but he avoided starting a conflict that could not win. in it. The "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" appears to be a classic case of displaying the effect of deterrence, so assuming that the leadership of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is rational, but also evil, but what else?
Kim Jong Un did not plan to launch nuclear missiles at America, and he did not plan that even before his "love story" with former President Donald Trump, and he will not do so in the future even if he gets all the weapons he wants, and Kim has not shown any indications that he wants to leave This world is amid a holocaust of nuclear radiation in Pyongyang.
Like his parents, Kim Jong Un made many threats against the United States, but not because he wanted to strike North America.
In fact, he did not show any interest in threatening other countries, just as neither he nor his predecessor promised to turn major cities into "seas of fire" in China, Russia and India, or Europe and Africa, South America, Canada, Cuba, Australia, and other places, and he does not proceed. Residents of these countries live in hiding in war shelters, fearing the arrival of the victorious North Korean army after a nuclear bombing.
Essential question
But the key question: Why is North Korea so focused on the United States?
None of the other countries have allied themselves with North Korea's biggest enemy, which is the "puppet" regime in Seoul, and none of these countries have deployed their army along the border with North Korea and threaten it with war, and none of them have attempted to change the regime in North Korea, nor have they threatened any of them. These countries eliminate the Kim family, and based on all of the above, the easiest way to deal with the "threat to the United States" is to stop the threat from Pyongyang.
Certainly, North Korea is a terrifying regime that has a terrible record in what it does to its people, and the threats it directs to South Korea, which carried geopolitical repercussions during the Cold War and prompted the United States to intervene, but these circumstances have now changed.
Although the two Koreas are currently working on threatening each other, and this is bad news of course, it does not require the intervention of the United States, and let's imagine that Pakistan and India are fighting again, the result will be a geopolitical catastrophe, which leads to instability in the region and constitutes a humanitarian crisis, but it will not It would lead to a change in the international balance of power between two rival superpowers, and it would not push anyone in the United States to intervene militarily and form a security alliance and establish front lines for the forces, as is the case between the two Koreas.
Accordingly, if the US administration wants to defuse North Korea's "threats", why not give up the security guarantee on the Korean Peninsula and bring its soldiers home?
These days, South Korea surpasses North Korea in everything, with its GDP reaching 50 times that of North Korea, and its population twice that of North Korea. Although the armed forces in South Korea are smaller, they are more It is technologically superior, and can be increased in size when necessary.
Of course, it is said that the situation will be terrifying when the US deterrent force is removed, but that is no more frightening than at any time during the past 86 years, and if the United States faces an unnecessary threat then the reasonable response is to get rid of it, and not to create excuses in order to deal with it as The new normal.
Undermining credibility
There is an opinion that the withdrawal of US forces from the Korean Peninsula could undermine the credibility of the United States in other places and encourage its enemies to act against it. But this opinion, even if it is repeated in more than one place, is not correct, because it assumes that no policy can Never change under any circumstances, which is an unreasonable position, as the moves must be a reflection of interests, and every superpower, including the United States' competitors, adjusts its policy when circumstances change, and this constant process of reassessing interests and changing resources has not Cause endless global disasters.
For example, in 1975 Washington was subjected to a humiliating exit from Vietnam, and we do not forget the sight of the embassy being evacuated from its roof by helicopters, yet nothing happened.
The Soviet Union did not invade Europe and the Middle East, China did not seize Taiwan or Japan, North Korea did not attack its southern neighbor, and did not invade communism in various parts of the world.
On the contrary, after 70 years of the Soviet Union’s founding it collapsed, communist Eastern European regimes became in the memory of history, the Warsaw Pact disappeared, market reforms spread in a sophisticated way around the world, and the People's Republic of China replaced Karl Marx with the American economist Milton Friedman, and is proceeding according to His instructions and theories, and the United States and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam moved towards establishing diplomatic relations between them.
North Korea is working to threaten America only to the extent that the United States appears ready to intervene in another round of the Korean Civil War, and the price may have seemed modest in the past, despite the disastrous traditional costs of the Korean War, but North Korea's development of nuclear weapons changes the geopolitical calculations in a way. Exciting, as Pyongyang's impending ability to strike American soil, in addition to the islands it owns in the Pacific Ocean, with nuclear weapons, makes it necessary for the United States to get out of the Korean impasse, and there is nothing very important on the Korean Peninsula worth risking American cities and millions of lives. . In fact, the Biden administration is right to seek negotiations with North Korea, especially to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions at least. But America's participation is basically a matter of choice, and it is better for Washington to start the exit process militarily, leaving the responsibility for dealing with North Korea to South Korea.The most important commitment for this administration, and the administrations that will succeed it, remains the American people, which requires ending the nuclear threat to North Korea by handing over the task of ultimately defending South Korea to Seoul.
• Kim Jong Un did not plan to launch nuclear missiles at America, and he did not plan that even before his "love story" with former President Donald Trump, and he will not do so in the future even if he gets all the weapons he wants, and Kim has not shown any indications that he wants Leave this world amid the holocaust of nuclear radiation in Pyongyang.
De Gobando - Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and Expert at the Cato Institute for Policy Research
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