The next two decades will witness tensions and an increase in international competition
"Central Intelligence" expects to surpass China by 2035
Beijing will be able to challenge Washington's strategic allies.
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More countries will need Chinese investment in the future.
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The geopolitical competition between the United States and China will dominate over the next two decades.
A report by the CIA, in cooperation with other US security agencies, sheds light on what the world will be like in 2040. The report suggests that the world will witness greater imbalances and more divisions.
Around the world in 2040, the document outlines, according to the intelligence agency, five scenarios that represent the most future possibilities.
One of them is a "world towards drift," and this scenario assumes that Western democracies will never fully recover from the "Covid-19" pandemic, that their societies will be increasingly divided, and that the world will slowly slide into chaos.
The international system there is described as "directionless, chaotic and unstable."
And China, in this scenario, would be in the lead.
And Beijing will take advantage of the difficulties faced by the West to extend its international influence.
The report's authors wrote that its increasing aggression in Asia "increases the risk of armed conflict with other regional powers, especially over vital resources."
On the other hand, developing countries, which have a young and unemployed population, feel compelled to satisfy Chinese demands, hoping to obtain much-needed investment and aid.
A future full of nightmares
“The uncertainty surrounding crises and erratic government responses has stifled investment and job creation, plunging North America and Europe into a period of slow growth, compared to the lost decade of Japan,” the intelligence report said. The nineties, and countries collapsed, especially in Africa and the Middle East, and some turned to China. ”The report adds,“ International challenges have escalated, from terrorism to the deterioration of human development. During this period, China experienced many of the same environmental and societal problems, but it was more resilient due to strong social cohesion and confidence, flexible leadership, central authority, stable ability to provide jobs, goods and services, and a political system that suppresses competing voices.
Although domestic demand was on a smaller scale, than it was during the boom of the 1990s and 2000s, domestic demand generated sufficient growth in GDP that allowed China to overtake the United States and enabled it to become the largest economy in the world by 2030. 2030. The "CIA" believes that huge infrastructure projects to deal with the effects of climate change, such as the "Great Shanghai Wall", have won the hearts of the world.
Similar infrastructure development programs, as well as regular foreign aid and investment, have helped China gain influence in the developing world.
International entanglements
Despite these developments, Beijing has continued to focus on addressing perceived security threats to its periphery and within its territory.
China has always been wary of international entanglements and leadership roles outside its immediate region.
Instead of trying to shape a new world order, China has focused on strengthening industries and setting technological standards that advance its development goals.
Many governments were content to take advantage of the vast Chinese market and bring other benefits, such as assistance with domestic surveillance and security systems, but few wanted to live under an international system ruled by China.
For its part, the United States has attempted to maintain ties with its established allies in the region, but Japan and South Korea have pursued increasingly independent military modernization programs and even their own nuclear weapons programs, in part because of their concerns about the United States' credibility and shield against China and North Korea.
In 2035, China's position will become strong and unchangeable, according to the report, especially after it is able to persuade the Taiwan government to sit at the negotiating table to discuss unification.
Chinese supremacy in the military and environmental spheres will be a turning point in the region, by showing Beijing's ability to provoke a close American ally and spread fear in the hearts of its neighbors, that it will not hesitate to resolve some regional differences.
Meanwhile, no country will be able to stand up to the rise of Chinese power in the region.
The US intelligence report expects that Russia will conform to China's interests, but it will become a less important partner over time.
Although India has benefited from development, it will take years to confront or contain its more powerful neighbor.
Constant tensions
Relations between governments and their people, in all regions of the world, will witness continuous tensions, according to the report, due to the growing mismatch between the needs or expectations of the population, and the possible or desired supplies from governments. In many countries, populations whose expectations have risen due to past booms will face greater tensions and disruptions due to slowing economic growth, uncertain employment prospects, economic downturn and population growth. These pressures will test states' capabilities and resilience, drain budgets, and make governance more complex. In the coming years, this disparity between government capacity and citizens' expectations is likely to spread and lead to further political instability. We expect to see a split in society, an increase in populism, waves of protest, and in extreme cases, more violence and internal strife, and even the collapse of some countries.
The trend towards democracy erosion is likely to continue for at least the next decade, if not longer.
The long-term legitimacy of democracies depends on two general conditions: maintaining a fair, inclusive and equitable political process, and obtaining positive outcomes for the population.
Responding to public concerns about corruption, elite monopoly, and inequality can help restore public confidence and strengthen institutional legitimacy.
In addition, the provision of efficient services, economic stability and personal security - historical advantages of democracies - increases public satisfaction.
Exorbitant cost
Authoritarian regimes will face the threats of democracies themselves, and many will struggle to adapt to them, increasing the likelihood of a sudden and violent change of government after a period of apparent stability.
Although authoritarian regimes have displayed resistance, they show major structural weaknesses, which are widespread corruption and over-reliance on raw materials.
Over the next two decades, the competition for global influence is expected to reach its highest level since the Cold War.
In this more competitive global environment, the risk of interstate conflict is likely to increase due to technological advancement, expansion in the number of targets, the wider diversity of actors, and deterrence dynamics.
Also, treaties and standards will be weaker.
It is possible that the armies of the great powers will seek to avoid intense conflicts, and even all-out wars, because of their high cost in human resources and lives.
But the risk of such conflicts is likely to increase as a result of miscalculation or a refusal to compromise on core issues.
• Although domestic demand was on a smaller scale, than it was during the boom of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century, domestic demand generated sufficient growth in GDP, allowing China to bypass the United States and enable it to become the largest economy in the world. By 2030.
• The United States has attempted to maintain ties with its established allies in the region, but Japan and South Korea have pursued increasingly independent military modernization programs, and even their own nuclear weapons programs, in part because of their concerns about US credibility and shield against China and North Korea.
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