• Once again, the executive risks not keeping one of its ecological promises ... and losing votes at the polls.

  • The government, which was supposed to submit a referendum on the climate to citizens, says it cannot do so due to a blockade in the predominantly right-wing Senate.

  • For the opposition and political experts, the announcement of this referendum was above all an announcement effect that had very little chance of seeing the light of day.

The Head of State's promise may never be honored. According to information from the

JDD

, Emmanuel Macron is about to bury the referendum on the climate. A ballot that he had yet promised last December. The French had to decide whether or not to include this sentence in Article 1 of the Constitution: “The Republic guarantees the preservation of biodiversity, the environment and the fight against climate change. "

After a bill on the climate accused of being distorted and a step backwards on the ban on glyphosate, this umpteenth step backwards is perhaps that of too much for the presidential election - although the Elysee ensures that the project is still relevant today.

"We have the impression that Emmanuel Macron uses the environment, but does not serve it, so it will necessarily have an electoral effect," said Juliette Grange, a philosopher specializing in political ecology.

The climate, a crucial issue for the presidential election

In 2021, failing to keep an ecological promise has much more impact than in the past. "The environmental issue has become much more crucial and concrete since the European elections of 2019. We have alerts from scientists almost every week", analyzes Daniel Boy, emeritus research director at the Center for Political Research of Sciences Po (Cevipof) . “And lately people have recognized that the Covid-19 disaster is more or less associated with an environmental disaster. "

The political scientist notes, however, that the environmental issue, which was recently at the top of the priorities for the French during the elections, was third in a recent national Opinion Way poll concerning the regional elections.

Security now ranks first, ahead of economic development and job creation.

“We don't know if it will stay that way until the next presidential election.

We will see it at the time of the electoral campaign, but for the moment it is not recorded.

"

"A nice political coup"

For experts, this referendum affair hides political manipulation. "I believe that Emmanuel Macron played a nice political stunt with the promise of this referendum to give himself an environmentalist image and thus seduce a green public, the electorate of the left, and a young public that we have a lot seen in the demonstrations for the climate, observes Juliette Grange. Which seems to have worked because there was a fairly strong favorable opinion for the referendum. They will be disappointed and, perhaps, turn away. "

A nice shot, therefore, but a surprising stroke, because the referendum remains a dangerous ballot.

"It is often said that the people do not answer the question, but answer the one who asks it, and can therefore always turn against him," explains Daniel Boy, for whom Emmanuel Macron does not necessarily have an interest in what this ballot is held.

But then why propose it?

"Because the probability of this happening is low," continues the political scientist.

Double-edged poker

Indeed, for the referendum to be proposed to the French, the Senate and the National Assembly must vote on the proposal in the same exact terms. However, the senators rejected the verb “guarantees” in the sentence to be added to the Constitution. "It was quite clear that this would happen, given that the Senate has a right-wing majority which does not want this referendum," says Juliette Grange.

The executive and the Senate are already transferring responsibility for the announced failure of the referendum.

"The right-wing senatorial majority has chosen to empty the proposal of the Citizen's Climate Convention of its substance, and therefore to prevent the agreement," criticized the LREM rapporteur for the bill to the National Assembly, Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade.

"Even before the Senate has voted anything and the discussion with the National Assembly begins, Emmanuel Macron accuses us of blocking to justify the cancellation of a referendum he did not want", retorts on Twitter Bruno Retailleau, president of the LR group in the Senate.

"It can completely backfire on him"

“Young people and even part of the general public only vaguely know the role of the Senate and do not care. The situation is complex, so it can completely turn against him, ”says the philosopher, author of the book 

Little Philosophy of Ecology

. "There is a risk that it will be too complicated for the public, and it will be easier to say that it is Macron's fault," adds Daniel Boy.

It is difficult, however, to predict whether this political coup, whatever its outcome, will have a real impact on the presidential votes.

Although some polls have been able to give LREM as the first party among 18-24 year olds, “there is still a lot of abstention among young people, recalls Daniel Boy.

The latest studies to which I had access also show a lack of interest among young people for the presidential election, which is striking ”.

"In any case, if there is any disappointment, it is already recorded by the climate convention and the use made of it by Emmanuel Macron, so the referendum will not radically change things," he concludes.

Planet

Climate: Uncertainty over the constitutional referendum, one more reason to march for the demonstrators

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Climate: An LREM deputy thinks that the referendum will not take place

  • Presidential election

  • Referendum

  • Youth

  • Weather

  • Climate change

  • Emmanuel Macron