The last war complicated relations even more
Reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia has become further than ever
Erdogan went to Baku to celebrate after the end of the war with Armenia.
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Turkish UAVs participated strongly in the last war.
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Former Prime Minister of Turkey: Ahmet Davutoglu.
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The past and the present inhabit the relations between Turkey and Armenia. While the Armenians were killed, by the Ottoman forces, nearly 100 years ago; Turkey helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia in a short war that ended months ago. For decades, the borders between the two neighbors were closed, but last December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his hope for a "new era" in Turkish-Armenian relations. However, the military parade in Baku to celebrate the victory over Armenia did not serve this purpose. Using Turkish weapons, Azerbaijani forces recaptured parts of Nagorny Karabakh, a populated area controlled by Armenians, as well as neighboring areas that Armenia had occupied, for three decades.
Army units passed in front of Erdogan and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the wreckage of Armenian tanks, as well as Turkish drones that bombed them, were displayed.
Erdogan hinted that Armenia may have learned a lesson from its defeat, and later announced that Turkey might open its borders with Armenia.
Nothing of the sort happened.
Conversely, tension increased again, on April 24, when US President Joe Biden officially declared that the killing and deportation of more than a million Armenians by Ottoman forces in 1915-1917 was tantamount to genocide.
Angered Ankara
Most historians agree with Biden, but past US presidents have usually avoided saying this to avoid angering Ankara, which vehemently denies the killings were widespread or systematic, the evidence suggests.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry described Biden's statement as a "vulgar distortion of history."
Turkey’s relations with America may not suffer much.
With its currency at stake, Turkey cannot afford another crisis with its NATO ally.
However, Turkish officials indicate that their country’s offer of detente with Armenia may not last.
Erdogan's advisor, Elnur Sivik, says that the end of the Nagorno Karabakh war removed obstacles to reconciliation.
(Turkey supported Azerbaijan's territorial claims, and now sees it as somewhat stable.)
Nevertheless, he says: "If the Armenians continue to antagonize Turkey and force the Americans to recognize the genocide, it will not help."
Ease tensions
Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told The Economist in March that reopening the borders would significantly ease tensions with Armenia. He also said that Armenia would be ready to establish relations with Turkey "without preconditions." On April 25, Pashinyan resigned and had been criticized and defamed after his defeat in the war, which led to early elections.
Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says that if there is a broad regional settlement, "everyone will win."
Opening the borders would help stabilize the entire Caucasus region, allow Armenia, which is the poorest country in the region, to access markets in Turkey and abroad, and connect Turkey with the energy-rich Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.
Davutoglu, who now heads a small opposition party, was foreign minister when Turkey and Armenia came close to normalizing diplomatic relations, in 2009. The process faltered after a backlash from nationalists in both countries.
Those in Turkey refused to accept any agreement unless Armenia withdrew from Nagorny Karabakh.
The Armenian nationalists demanded that Turkey recognize the events of 1915 as genocide.
Russian influence
Western diplomats have long believed that the settlement between Turkey, a member of NATO, and Armenia would reduce Russia's influence in the Caucasus; Today, the opposite may be true. Instead of dragging Armenia into the orbit of the West, normalization could draw Turkey further into Russia. "Russia's plan is to open borders between the Eurasian Economic Union and Turkey," said a parliamentarian from the Armenian ruling party, who asked not to be named, referring to a trade bloc led by Russia that Armenia joined, a few years ago. Turkey, having learned to do business with the Kremlin, does not seem keen these days to promote Western interests in the Caucasus. Moscow may have a position in the reconciliation process, like Turkey and Armenia.
Russian forces have patrolled the Armenian side of the border with Turkey since the fall of the Soviet Union. There is no doubt that Armenia will continue to do so. "Armenia is closely linked to the axis of Russia, more than ever," says political analyst Richard Geragossian. Normalization with Turkey will only deepen this matter. A regional settlement is as far-fetched as it may appear on paper, as it has always been. Some Armenian officials cautiously welcome the prospects for direct trade with Turkey. But it appears that many members of the political class, and society as a whole, are unprepared for any kind of engagement. Some also fear that the detente with its powerful neighbor will force Armenia to give up its claims in Nagorny Karabakh.
And in a country of barely three million people, which is still suffering from the consequences of the war, the fear of Turkey is greater than it has been in recent memory.
An Armenian official, who preferred not to be named, says: "This was a war that Turkey ignited, instigated by Turkey, and managed by Turkey," adding, "There is no trust."
During the victory parade in Baku, Erdogan praised Anwar Pasha, one of the architects of the "genocide".
Finally, Aliyev oversaw the opening of the "Spoils of War" amusement park, which includes statues of Armenian soldiers with hooked noses and strange faces, and carefully arranged helmets of soldiers killed in the war.
Thus how to reconcile such offers with Azerbaijani peace offerings is difficult.
What Erdogan and Aliyev offer to Armenia may not be so much an olive branch as it is a short part of the end of the stick.
• Western diplomats have long believed that the settlement between Turkey, a member of "NATO", and Armenia would reduce Russia's influence in the Caucasus; Today, the opposite may be true.
Ahmed Davutoglu:
• “If there is a broad regional settlement, (everyone will win).
Opening the borders would help stabilize the entire Caucasus region, allow Armenia, which is the poorest country in the region, to access markets in Turkey and abroad, and link Turkey with the energy-rich Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.
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