- Everyone can probably agree that it is good if we vaccinate those who need it as soon as possible.
Therefore, we made calculations on what effect it would have if everyone who is already immune postpones their own vaccination for a while to leave the place to others, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematics and one of the researchers behind the study.
Clearly less on iva
Anyone who has had corona develops antibodies to the virus is protected against serious illness and death for at least six months, several studies show.
In the study, mathematicians have estimated that between 15 and 20 percent of the population have active antibodies.
If all of these were to postpone their own vaccination in favor of those without antibodies, it would reduce the spread of infection and thus the number of covid cases in intensive care by between 3 and 14 percent.
The number of deaths would decrease by about the same percentage, the researchers say.
- This is a decent reduction, nothing that will mean a total turnaround, but I am convinced that the care would appreciate this, says Tom Britton.
Today's new figures from the Swedish Public Health Agency show that almost a quarter of the population now carry active antibodies.
If all of these were last in the vaccine queue, the effect of this would end up in the upper range of the researchers' calculations, ie up to a 14 per cent reduction in the need for care and death.
"Think of others, not just yourself"
Doing such mathematical calculations on the spread of infection and morbidity contains a lot of uncertainty because it is not possible to know how the virus behaves or which mutations appear.
But the researchers' purpose with these calculations is to get those who are already immune to covid 19 to perhaps wait a bit to give second place sooner.
- In any case, you can encourage those who have antibodies to look after the benefits of society and not just themselves, says Tom Britton.