According to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), over the past two and a half months, the rating of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Servant of the People party has grown.
According to a poll conducted by sociologists in the period from April 16 to 22, "Servant of the People" is supported by 14.5% of respondents, "European Solidarity" - 12%, "Opposition Platform - For Life" (OPZH) - 8.3%, "Batkivshchyna "- 7%.
Compared to a study by the same service conducted in February 2021, the ruling Servant of the People party has improved its results - a few months ago it enjoyed the support of only 10.5% of Ukrainians.
In turn, the rating of the party OLE, on the contrary, decreased.
In February, it was preferred by 11.4% of respondents.
The results of Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party turned out to be slightly lower - in February a poll showed that it was supported by 8.9% of the country's residents.
Only Petro Poroshenko's party "European Solidarity" out of the four most popular political forces in the country remained practically in the same positions - in February, KIIS reported about 12.2% of Ukrainian citizens who preferred it.
Experts note that the dynamics of party ratings largely coincides with the change in the popularity of their leaders.
Thus, Vladimir Zelensky, representing the Servant of the People, has been able to slightly correct his personal rating, which had been continuously falling before, over the past few months.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky
Reuters
© Sergey Dolzhenko
Now he is preferred by 23.4% of Ukrainians, while in February only 16.2% of the KIIS survey participants spoke in his favor.
At the moment, he still tops the list of the most popular politicians in Ukraine.
Petro Poroshenko's ratings practically did not change - 13.5% of respondents expressed their support in April.
The February data showed a 13.1% support level.
In April, 8.9% of respondents spoke in favor of Tymoshenko.
In February, 10.3% of respondents expressed support for her.
The popularity of the representative of HLE, Yuriy Boyko, also slightly decreased: in February, 8.1% of the survey participants voted for him, in April - by one percentage point less - 7.1%.
Struggle for rating
According to experts, despite the fact that Zelensky's rating has slightly increased, in general, against the background of his results in the 2019 elections, they look disastrously low.
Recall that in 2019 Zelensky won the presidential race, gaining a record 73.22% of the vote.
Before that, there were no precedents in the history of Ukraine when a presidential candidate would enjoy such support from the population.
In the parliamentary elections following the presidential election, Zelenskiy's Servant of the People party won the majority of votes.
At the moment, it occupies 58.1% of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada.
Thus, Zelensky, in addition to the trust of the country's residents, received a parliament that was loyal to himself in 2019.
However, the Ukrainian president could not hold on to the conquered positions: very soon his rating began to fall - the voters began to turn away from him.
Analysts believe that the main reason for the disappointment of Ukrainians in Zelensky was the inconsistency of the president's actions with his election program.
So, one of the key points of Zelensky's program was the promise to establish peace in the southeast of the country.
He said that he was "ready to do anything for this."
Soldiers of the People's Militia of the DPR in a trench on the western outskirts of Donetsk on the line of contact
RIA News
© Sergey Averin
However, after the elections, it became clear that Zelensky on this issue continues the course of his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, who sabotaged the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Moreover, the actions of the Zelensky administration led in March-April this year to the most serious aggravation of the situation in Donbass since 2015, when there was an active phase of hostilities.
Following Poroshenko, Zelensky continued his attack on the Russian language.
In particular, under him, the law "On complete general secondary education" was adopted, which provides for a gradual reduction in teaching in the languages of national minorities, including Russian.
In addition, the gradual introduction of restrictive measures on the use of the Russian language in all spheres of life of Ukrainians, prescribed in the previously adopted law "On ensuring the functioning of the Ukrainian language as a state language", continued.
Both documents are discriminatory in relation to the Russian language, despite the fact that, according to opinion polls, almost half of the country's population speaks it.
The unpopular land reform, as well as the growth of economic problems and the government's failures in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, also played a role in the fall in Zelensky's rating.
According to a RT source in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, in general, the opinion poll indicates that "Ukrainians do not see any improvement" in the country.
“The hostilities in the east continue, the standard of living is not growing, there are no vaccines.
It is becoming more and more difficult for Zelensky to work - it is impossible to dissolve the parliament that ignores the president, since he will no longer receive a majority in the Rada.
And Western partners are demanding unpopular reforms, which will only collapse the president's rating.
In his place, I would not have dreamed of a second term, ”said the interlocutor of RT.
According to experts, given the current dynamics, according to the results of the next parliamentary elections, Zelensky's Servant of the People party will have to create a coalition.
A RT source in the office of the Ukrainian president agrees with this point of view.
According to him, in this regard, the head of state has very little room for maneuver.
“A coalition is impossible with the party of Petro Poroshenko or the OPLZ - these are Zelensky's opponents.
It is also difficult to come to an agreement with Tymoshenko on support - she wants all sorts of preferences in exchange.
So only the deputies of their own party have to influence, who every day less and less support the president's initiatives, "says the interlocutor of RT.
"Lack of sane competitors"
Analysts believe that the slight increase in Zelensky's popularity may be associated with the aggravation of the situation in Donbass - in the last two months, Ukrainian media have published materials almost daily about the allegedly preparing "attack" of the Russian Federation on Ukraine.
Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities also made various comments regarding Moscow's "intentions".
Zelensky himself several times visited the places of deployment of Ukrainian troops, where he posed for journalists.
“Ukrainian society was scared, people were told daily about the imminent invasion of Russia, which, of course, did not take place.
The TV channels loyal to Zelenskiy practically accused the deputies of the OLE, whom no one gave the floor to, of the "attack" of Russia.
That is why their rating fell, "a deputy from the Batkivshchyna party told RT.
The closure of the opposition TV channels 112 Ukraine, ZIK and NEWSONE, which criticized the actions of his administration, also contributed to the rise in Zelensky's rating.
At the same time, they were not only banned from broadcasting on television frequencies, but at the request of the Ukrainian government, they were blocked on YouTube.
This measure could also lead to a drop in the ratings of HLE, since the channels were closely associated with this party, experts say.
“Perhaps the demonstration of toughness, including the struggle of Zelensky with opponents, in particular with one of the leaders of the HLE, Viktor Medvedchuk, as well as the aggravation of the situation in Donbass in a certain segment of the electorate, were perceived positively.
Zelensky could also secure a rating due to the fact that he was able to establish relations with the new US administration, "Boris Mezhuev, associate professor at the Faculty of Philosophy at Moscow State University, told RT.
Chairman of the Political Council of the Ukrainian party "Opposition Platform - For Life" Viktor Medvedchuk
RIA News
At the same time, Mezhuev believes that the main reason for the growth in Zelensky's rating is "the absence of real political opponents."
“A significant part of information resources have simply been removed from the political field.
If a new politician appeared in Kiev, he could challenge Zelenskiy.
However, this is not the case now.
At the same time, old political figures are losing to Zelensky because they have nothing new to offer, ”the analyst said.
A similar point of view is shared by the Ukrainian political scientist and economist Oleksandr Dudchak.
“In general, Zelensky's rating is maintained due to the absence of sane competitors for whom the people could really vote.
It can be considered that it still exists due to the insignificance of its competitors, ”the expert believes.
At the same time, political analysts believe that although Zelensky was able to slightly raise his rating with the help of militaristic hysteria and pressure on the opposition, in the long term, such actions will not help him restore the level of support for 2019.
“The fact that the rating would fall catastrophically was predictable.
Zelensky was able to slow down the fall, but not because of his strength, but because of the weakness of his opponents, ”concluded Boris Mezhuev.