Analysis: "The future of the British Union is at stake"

If there was a Queen of Scotland, her name would be Nicola Sturgeon.

The Prime Minister and leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party SNP is by far the most popular politician in Scotland.

Opponents also say they admire her way of communicating with voters and getting her message out.

That message has a single cornerstone: independence for Scotland. 

Sturgeon will demand a new referendum

And there is no doubt that the SNP will be the largest party in the election.

What is uncertain in the end is whether the party will get its own majority.

Why does it matter?

Well, because that could determine whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson can continue to say no to a new referendum on independence.

He is the one who decides, and he does not want to be known as the one who divided the British Union.  

If the SNP gets its own majority, then Nicola Sturgeon will demand a new referendum by the end of 2023. And it will be the starting shot for a battle between Edinburgh and London that risks becoming both dirty and protracted. 

Boris Johnson unpopular

This is the first election after Brexit, which a majority of Scots voted against.

Not least Scotland's young people are mourning the British exit from the EU, and they feel more like Scots than British.

The SNP is at its strongest in the younger electorate, and it is also here that support for independence is greatest.  

Another important factor is Boris Johnson himself.

He is hugely unpopular with the Scots, so much so that his own election strategists have made sure to keep him out of Scotland during the election campaign.

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, the Scottish Tory Party was sensational about Labor, which ended up in a degrading third place.

Now the Conservatives are fighting hard to retain second place. 

The SNP has been in power for 14 years

The corona pandemic has affected the election from start to finish.

Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the crisis is highly rated by the Scots, but the sex charges against her representative and former couple's horse Alex Salmond have given the Queen's Crown a thorn in the side.

His new party Alba and SNP are fighting over the same voters, which could affect the election result.  

The SNP has been in power in Scotland for 14 years.

The previous referendum on independence in 2014 was won by Unionist supporters.

Since then, while support for independence has increased, according to opinion polls, about half of Scots want to remain part of the British Union.  

If the SNP gets its own majority in this election, it is a first step towards the long-awaited independence. But the Nationalist Party must still convince a respectable number of Scots that the only right way forward is to break away from Britain.