Despite the Taliban’s pledge to prevent him from using its areas
The danger of Al Qaeda is present .. and the American soldiers are preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan
General Zia (center) said that the US war against "Al Qaeda" is not the first priority for his country.
Archives
Al-Qaeda militants whose threats have decreased dramatically since the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001. Archive
Biden made it clear in his statements that US soldiers and contractors would leave Afghanistan with the exception of a small battalion to protect the US embassy.
Father
Sohail Shaheen said: We are committed to not allowing anyone to use Afghan soil against the United States or its allies.
Father
picture
In a hidden corner of Hamid Karzai International Airport, about six military officers sat on their seats staring intently at surveillance screens displaying high-resolution video images, in addition to surveillance images provided by drones, warplanes, as well as helicopters, taken from around the country.
This interest in surveillance images comes after the recent transformation that led to placing Al-Qaeda organization, and not Taliban, in the crosshairs of the American army and NATO forces, which forced the Afghan forces to develop their method of operations.
After years of focusing on fighting with the Taliban on the battlefield, the Afghan army must assume full responsibility for providing air support to its forces, in which it relied on the US Air Force, which provides and integrates surveillance and air power into the Intelligence Operations Center.
The Afghan Army Chief of Staff and Acting Defense Minister, General Yasin Zia, said: “We have formed this force to protect our soldiers and our bases and move from one place to another. He uses American terminology in this regard, and he talks about finding militia groups and Al Qaeda members in the vast deserts of Afghanistan and its long mountain ranges.
It appears that the future of the state's fight against terrorism will be broad.
Neither soldiers nor contractors
For the first time in two decades, the United States says it will not have any soldiers or contractors on Afghan soil.
CIA teams and US Special Forces that were leading the search for Al Qaeda personnel no longer operate at bases in eastern Afghanistan.
In recent days, the Pentagon began "assembling" its forces in Afghanistan in preparation for their withdrawal, which include about 2,500 soldiers, a few hundreds of special forces and about 18,000 contractors. NATO is also implementing the withdrawal process for its forces. The withdrawal process will be completed by approximately July. US President Joe Biden said that the date of September 11 will be the date for the start of the withdrawal.
Biden administration officials say that the threats of "Al Qaeda" have decreased dramatically since the United States led the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and that it is possible to monitor the presence of this group in Afghanistan from the outside. Even before the killing of its leader, Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011, the group suffered heavy losses, with many of its leaders killed and captured. Biden administration officials said that if threats to attack US interests were revealed, the Pentagon or "CIA" could direct air strikes for the organization inside Afghanistan from bases far away from it, or bring US special forces teams into Afghanistan on a mission they launched. It has the name "Arrest and Kill."
Warplanes can fly from aircraft carriers, or even giant bombers from distant bases in the Indian Ocean, or even from the United States itself, to strike those who threaten the United States, who will be located by drones, intercepting communications and informant networks.
Doubts
But there are still many uncertainties about this strategy, which includes whether the countries neighboring Afghanistan can allow US forces and drones to pass over it.
If these countries do not allow, the United States must rely on manpower from American bases in the Indian Ocean, and the Pentagon must rely on methods that were approved before the invasion of Afghanistan, as they relied on local networks of informants, monitoring satellites and intercepting communications networks to monitor the organization. Al-Qaeda, and other militias in the country.
In those years before the invasion of Afghanistan, a small team of CIA employees monitored from the agency’s headquarters in Virginia bin Laden’s site in Afghanistan, but they failed to discover his plans to prepare for the September 11 attack, despite many warnings.
The CIA prepared several attempts to kill or arrest bin Laden before 2001, according to a 2004 report from the 9/11 Commission.
But these attempts were being canceled by agency officials, or by the White House, for fear of many civilian casualties.
In 2021, however, Al Qaeda has become a much smaller organization than it was in the past, with about 200 members, most of them in Afghanistan, said Lieutenant General Scott Barrier, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, last Thursday.
Taliban pledge
Under the withdrawal agreement concluded by the administration of former US President Donald Trump, the Taliban movement pledged to prevent the use of the lands it controlled by terrorist groups to launch attacks against the United States or its allies. US officials assert that the agreement requires the Taliban to cut ties with Al Qaeda, but US intelligence officials do not expect this to happen. It is unclear what happened to this agreement after Biden.
Despite the Taliban’s public distance from al-Qaeda, the Taliban maintains close ties with the militias, through family relations. After several years, the marriage relations have become very intertwined between the two parties, which strengthens the ties between them.
A statement posted on the Taliban website known as "Voice of Jihad" last October said that the movement has no obligations to sever its ties with "Al Qaeda" according to an agreement with the United States, but "Taliban" representatives insist that they will not accept any existence. An extremist on Afghan soil.
"(Al Qaeda) was in Afghanistan before (the Taliban)," said Suhail Shaheen, a representative of the movement.
And all of these countries that complain about (Al Qaeda) were providing him with support during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. ”
He added, "We are committed to not allowing anyone to use Afghan lands against the United States or its allies."
good chance
Some Afghan officials see a good opportunity in the integration of the "Taliban" movement with the Afghan state, but this remains an unlikely view given the Taliban’s rejection of the Afghan government as a puppet of the Americans, so that the movement views the Afghan government leaders as a group of traitors to their country.
"If the government security forces work with (the Taliban), Al Qaeda and ISIS will not pose any significant threat," said a former official in the Kabul government's Security Directorate, who declined to be named.
But US officials say that unless the Afghan government and the Taliban reach an agreement to share power, the "Al Qaeda" organization can regain its capacity and work to threaten targets within the United States and its allied countries, within two or three years.
During this period, US officials say, the Biden administration will have enhanced its capabilities in the region.
The White House promises to continue providing assistance to the Afghan army, and the "Pentagon" is making plans to continue exchanging information and training Afghan forces as long as the government in Kabul continues.
Biden was clear in his statements when he said that the soldiers and contractors will leave Afghanistan, with the exception of a small battalion to protect the US embassy.
And if the withdrawal of forces between the United States and the "Taliban" is violated, then the United States will send agents from the "CIA" in the event of the emergence of the threats of "Al Qaeda".
Not my fight
Pentagon and intelligence officials are concerned that Afghan government forces could face quick setbacks without the help of US forces. If the Afghan army can prevent the Taliban from taking over the country, it can work to contain the dangers of Al Qaeda and ISIS, as the latter has a minor presence in Afghanistan. It could also help the Afghan Special Forces, which provide a lot of intelligence on the threats of extremist organizations, to continue their work of reporting to US analysts outside the country. The military can also help the Afghan government hire its own contractors by using US financial aid to replace those leaving the country.
On his return to the operations center, General Zia said that the departure of the Americans will not have a significant impact on gathering information, although Afghan officials have acknowledged that the withdrawal of the US military will reduce their ability to forensic analysis and understanding the signals.
"We have the best intelligence personnel because we are from this region, we are the children of this culture and we have the same skin color, and we have no problem gathering information," Diaa said.
Afghan officials continue to focus on the relations between Taliban fighters and al-Qaeda militants, as they remind US officials of the ongoing relationship between the two groups, and the emphasis on the usefulness of Afghan forces.
But General Zia said that the US war against "Al Qaeda" is not the first priority for his country.
"This is not my battle, it is the war of the international community," Diaa said.
Nabih Boulos: Head of the Los Angeles Times' Middle East bureau
David Cloud: Covering the Pentagon and the US military from Washington, DC
- CIA teams and US Special Forces that were leading the search for Al Qaeda personnel no longer operate at bases in eastern Afghanistan.
- US officials say that unless the Afghan government and the Taliban reach an agreement to share power, then Al Qaeda could restore its capabilities and threaten targets within the United States and its allies within two or three years.
Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news