Afhganistan: The danger for the Bundeswehr is growing every day

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It was supposed to be a special day for Allianz.

After 20 years of service, 10,000 NATO soldiers officially began preparing for the final withdrawal from the Hindu Kush on May 1st.

While the soldiers started packing at the weekend, horror reports from Afghanistan arrived almost every hour at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

At least 30 people were killed in a car bomb detonation in eastern Logar province.

On Saturday morning, Islamists captured an army base in southern Ghazni province and killed numerous Afghan soldiers.

A few hours later, strangers fired mortar shells at Kandahar Airport, where US soldiers are also stationed.

At least eight Afghan soldiers were killed in the attack on their army post in Badakhshan province in the northeast.

Unidentified persons murdered four police officers, a university lecturer and a government official on the street in the capital Kabul on Saturday.

The government soldiers hit back.

They killed more than 80 Taliban within 24 hours.

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Everything was planned very differently. The Taliban, together with representatives of the Afghan government, should have spoken again on Saturday about cooperation and reconciliation at a high-level peace conference in Istanbul. The Islamist terrorist militia canceled the conference at short notice. The reason: the US troops would not have withdrawn by April 30, as originally agreed in an agreement between the Trump administration and the Taliban under certain conditions. Instead, the 36 NATO countries and their partners want to stay a few months longer. At the latest on September 11th - the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in the USA in 2001 with several thousand deaths - there will then no longer be any Western soldiers in the country.

But it could be faster.

US commander Scott Miller is apparently already planning the withdrawal for July 4th - the US national holiday, which commemorates independence in 1776.

US President Joe Biden has not yet made a decision.

Everything remains open.

Confusion instead of clear targets - the withdrawal from Afghanistan will be a shaky game.

1067 German soldiers are still on site, over the coming weeks the number should decrease.

The Bundeswehr soldiers are preparing to relocate.

800 so-called container equivalents are available.

One thing is clear: In the end, the Bundeswehr will have to leave something behind.

But that's actually not a problem.

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Much more important: Nobody knows exactly what the Taliban are planning to do in the coming weeks.

In February they had threatened a “great war” if the Allies did not withdraw by April 30th.

Last weekend, a Taliban spokesman tweeted that they would “take all necessary measures against the occupying powers”.

The Taliban leadership does not yet seem to have finally decided what that will be.

The Taliban's calculation

There is great concern at Allianz in Brussels, even if people are reluctant to talk about it.

“The Taliban may want to give their own supporters the impression that they have driven NATO out of the country.

To do this, you need appropriate images.

That can be very dangerous, ”said a diplomat.

Hans-Lothar Domröse, a former German four-star general who, as Commander-in-Chief of the Allied Joint Force Command in Brunssum, Netherlands, played a key role in organizing the withdrawal of the ISAF combat mission and the establishment of the 'Resolute Support' training mission in 2014, also sees this Dangers: “The fewer soldiers there are still in Afghanistan, the more likely they are to be targeted if the Taliban set it up. The last step by NATO in Afghanistan is full of dangers, ”he told WELT. Domröse emphasized that the terrorist attacks took place in the USA 20 years ago and that exactly ten years ago, Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan: "From the point of view of the Taliban terrorists, these are two symbolic dates."that in the eyes of the radical Islamists, NATO has broken the US-Taliban agreement. “All together, I fear, the Taliban may want to avenge themselves in a terrible way when the NATO troops withdraw and rely on renewed violence. But the West is prepared for that. "

Bundeswehr sends mortar train

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A critical phase is now beginning for the German soldiers.

That is why Berlin sent a so-called mortar train to Mazar-e Sharif to protect its own soldiers.

In the coming days, at least 30 men from the KSK elite unit are to follow.

Combat troops (hunters) are also available in Germany in the event of an emergency.

But would these forces really be able to prevent the Taliban from destroying the departing Bundeswehr transport aircraft of the Antonov type with rockets in the event of a surprise attack, so that the “success” can then be presented worldwide on social networks?

Washington is nervous too.

"It would be irresponsible of us not to assume that this withdrawal of troops can be attacked by the Taliban," said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.

As far as is known, the Americans have sent an aircraft carrier group, rocket artillery, around 650 Ranger soldiers and four B 52-H long-range bombers to the Hindu Kush.

The message is clear: do not dare attack us.

"Potential attackers should know: If they attack us or our trigger, we will defend ourselves and our partners with all means available," warned Biden's vice spokeswoman a few days ago.

Questions remain. What has NATO achieved in two decades? And what's next for Afghanistan now? Ex-General Domröse says: "We have achieved a lot in Afghanistan." The Western community of states has built schools, hospitals, roads and wells, improved school education, significantly strengthened the position of women and trained 350,000 security guards. “But what we haven't achieved is social security. That means: a family still cannot lead a normal life. If a man leaves the house in the morning, he cannot be sure that he or his children will return safely in the evening. "

The West also failed to contribute to reconciliation between the various groups in Afghanistan.

“In 2015, when we started the training mission, we had the feeling that we were on the right path towards a stable order.

We were optimistic.

Statistically speaking, not much has changed for the better since then.

In retrospect, it was an illusion. "

The danger that Afghanistan will become a terrorist state again is great.

Experts expect that only the few excellently trained Afghan Special Forces will be able to defend their country on their own.

In addition, observers warn of renewed ethnic tensions within the security forces and of the theft of ammunition and heavy weapons by members of the armed forces.

The US commissioner for reconstruction, John F. Sopko, also warned that the security forces would not be able to act for long without the approximately 18,000 foreign contractors. The prospects in the Hindu Kush are bleak.