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A week ago, the Greens were clearly ahead of the CDU and CSU for the first time in a survey by the Forsa opinion research institute on behalf of RTL and n-tv.

Even a week later, the new balance of power between the parties has not changed: The Greens remain the strongest political force with 28 percent, six percentage points ahead of the Union.

Other survey institutes, however, see a head-to-head race for first place.

The values ​​of the party preferences change only minimally: the Union can gain one percentage point, the other smaller parties lose one percentage point. Nothing changes for all other parties. The SPD only just holds its third place in the party structure with 13 percent, the FDP with 12 percent and the AfD with 11 percent almost on a par with the ruling party. Seven percent of those surveyed would each choose the left and some of the other parties.

The Chancellor preference of the German citizens does not change in the week after the candidate's decision.

If the Germans could choose their chancellor directly, 32 percent would still choose Annalena Baerbock and 15 percent Armin Laschet.

Olaf Scholz loses two percentage points;

13 percent of citizens would choose him at the moment.

Four government alliances would be possible

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If elections were to take place now, 707 members would move into the new Bundestag - in line with the voting intentions of the citizens.

Compared to the last federal election, the Greens would win 145 and the FDP 11 additional seats.

All other parties would lose seats, most of them the Union: minus 76. The distribution of seats in the new Bundestag: Greens 212, Union 170, SPD 98, FDP 91, Left 53 and AfD 83 seats.

For a majority capable of governing, 354 seats are required.

Accordingly, four coalition governments are currently conceivable: Greens and CDU / CSU (together 382 mandates), “Ampel” coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP (401 mandates), a green-red-red “left alliance” (363 mandates) and a coalition of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP (359 seats).

The currently ruling black-red coalition would only have a total of 268 mandates and could no longer form a government.

The pollsters have also identified a possible voter migration.

After that, the governing parties lose significantly: only 42 percent of the SPD voters from 2017 would now vote again in a social democratic manner, 28 percent would vote for the Greens, ten percent for the Union, eight percent for another party and twelve percent would not vote at all.

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Even from the CDU, not even half (48 percent) would vote again in a Christian Democratic way: 16 percent lean towards the Greens, 8 percent towards the FDP and 18 would not vote at all.

Ten percent would vote another party.

The CSU can retain significantly more voters than its larger sister party.

61 out of 100 CSU voters from 2017 would currently vote for Christian Socialism again, 12 percent prefer green and 6 percent prefer FDP.

CSU threatens to lose the government majority with the free voters

If the state parliament were to be re-elected in Bavaria, the CSU could achieve 36 percent according to a survey by the Insa Institute on behalf of “Bild”.

In the current Bavaria trend, Alliance 90 / The Greens come to 24 percent.

SPD, Free Voters and AfD are on par with nine percent.

For the CSU this means a loss of ten percentage points compared to the Bayern trend in January.

The Greens were able to gain six points, for the AfD it was up two points, for the Free Voters by one.

The SPD remained constant.

According to the current polls, the CSU and Free Voters would even lose their government majority.

The CSU could only form a coalition with the Greens.

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“In Bavaria, the CSU falls under its state election result.

Only every third voter votes for the Prime Minister's party, ”said Insa boss Hermann Binkert about the survey results.

"The absolute majority is a long way off for the CSU."

For the survey of the RTL / n-tv trend barometer, the market and opinion research institute Forsa interviewed 2507 people from April 20 to 26, 2021. The statistical margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. For the Insa Bavaria trend on behalf of “Bild”, a total of 1400 citizens in Bavaria were surveyed online from April 22nd to 27th, 2021. The statistical margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.