He reached the edge of the abyss and then backed off
Putin withdraws his forces stationed near Ukraine after the scientist tested
Observers expected Putin's announcement to merge with Belarus.
A.F.B.
The decision to withdraw troops from the front line surprised everyone.
EPA
Russian dissident Alexei Navalny announced the end of his hunger strike.
A.F.B.
picture
On Friday, official television footage showed how the Russian vehicles and armored vehicles that gathered near Ukraine are loaded onto trains and ships to be towed, and on the same day the detained opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, announced that he had ended his hunger strike for a period of three weeks, because his demands With access to independent medical care that was ultimately adequately met, and there was a mixture of fear, suspense and strength, the President, Vladimir Putin, used it to assert his authority, highlighting the more militant tactics he could resort to to consolidate his influence. By Friday, it was clear that Putin saw the anxiety he was able to induce at home and abroad as a tool that could be modified depending on changing circumstances, or in the service of a broader goal.
In short, it was a summary of Putin's high-stakes tactical base, which evokes his past as an officer in the KGB, of preserving the opponent’s guesswork and losing his balance, while also preparing to exercise restraint as long as he is able to do so. Former Putin's senior adviser, Gulip Pavlovsky, referred to last week's drama: "This is partly theater," explaining, "But theater is important to our system."
The New Cold War Logic
It was a week that shed light on the Russian president's new Cold War logic, a term his former prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, used in an article published on Friday.
In his struggle with the West, Putin relies on the threat of escalation, a tactic that has taken increasingly harsh forms as the conflict intensifies, and recent days have seen 100,000 Russian troops mobilize on Ukraine's doorstep.
As Navalny faces death in prison, according to his comrades, Putin was preparing an annual speech on the state of the nation, in which analysts predicted that he might unveil a plan to annex part of Ukraine, or merge with neighboring Belarus, and the president did not do any of that, in his speech on Monday. Wednesday, when he spoke most of the time on local issues, like summer camps for children.
On the same night, when thousands of Navalny supporters staged protests across the country, police in several cities took a hands-off approach, unusually, arresting only 32 people in Moscow, for example, compared to the more than 1,900 at a pro-opposition rally. Russian, end of January.
Partial withdrawal
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced a partial withdrawal of troops, on Thursday, a move welcomed by the Ukrainian president, thus Putin presented an olive branch to the US President, Joe Biden, by appearing at the Climate Summit on the Internet.
On Friday, Navalny said his hunger strike to demand better medical care "has achieved enough", after civilian doctors examined him twice.
In Medvedev's article, which explains the events of the week, he compared the current state of world affairs to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, when the United States and the Soviet Union were on the brink of a nuclear war, and the former prime minister wrote that the problem today, unlike the Cold War, is that the United States is no longer Russia respects the strength of Russia, and Medvedev wrote: "If the consequences of victory are so great that they raise questions about the continued existence of the victor, then this is not a victory."
The risks of Russia's escalating approach to foreign policy are that Putin may need more escalation in order to achieve the desired effect, and this was the case with the mobilization of Russian forces near Ukraine, and while the war has continued in eastern Ukraine since 2014, when Moscow sent Weapons and troops to the separatists it supports, not since the beginning of hostilities has the Kremlin openly threatened to invade Ukraine, as it has in recent weeks.
Last week, Putin sent his message, and Ukraine prepared for the possibility of a full-scale war, and Biden called, last week, with his Russian counterpart and invited him to a meeting, which gave the Kremlin a welcome opportunity with the possibility that Putin would not accept the dialogue. Words from our American counterparts regarding their willingness to conduct a dialogue on issues of common interest, ”he said, adding,“ But unfortunately, the Americans ’statements did not coincide with concrete actions.”
Tensions continue
Putin's next crisis may not come with a smooth path to stop the escalation, and orders were issued to some Russian forces that were withdrawn from places near the Ukrainian border, Friday, to leave their armored vehicles behind, which confirms the continuing tensions in that conflict, and in this context, says the policy fellow at the European Council on Relations State Department in Berlin, Kadre Lake: "The danger is that he (Putin) has this complete obsession with not appearing weak."
At home, the easing indicated by Putin, the benevolence of the opponent Navalny, and the light police touch in the Wednesday protests are likely to be short-lived, and next week a Moscow court will consider prosecutors ’attempt to ban Navalny’s organization, immediately, a step that could pave the way. The way to a new wave of criminal cases against the opposition.
Difficulty defining strategy
It seems that even those close to Russia's ruling elite find it difficult, at times, to define a coherent strategy for the Kremlin's actions.
Konstantin Remchukov, the director of one of the newspapers behind the re-election campaign of the Moscow mayor in 2018, said that some powerful factions are pushing Putin toward tougher policies, and he is willing to follow them, explaining: “While the country as a whole is suffering economically from sanctions, Some people in the elite benefit from companies that provide an alternative to prohibited imports, under these procedures, or from military contracts. ”These groups also include strong leadership in the security services, who gain more resources and leverage when tensions escalate.
Remchukov added that these groups are seen as pushing for confrontational policies, which Putin sometimes has to rein in, stressing that the dynamic is pushing Russia into an era of "geopolitical isolation."
• Internally, the easing indicated by Putin, the good treatment of the opponent Navalny, and the light police touch in the Wednesday protests are likely to be short-lived.
• The risks of Russia's escalating approach to foreign policy are that Putin may need to escalate further, in order to achieve the desired effect, and this was the case with the mobilization of Russian forces near Ukraine.
• 100 thousand Russian soldiers are mobilized near the border with Ukraine.
• 1900 supporters of the Russian opposition were arrested at the end of January.
Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news