10 days is the most prominent in the history of modern Chad, where the killing of Chadian President Idriss Deby changed the scene and confused accounts and brought scenes of bloody conflicts to the fore again.
Is the country at a historic turning point?
Or are old scenarios being repeated without reaching a solution to the conflicts between the conflicting forces?
What is the role of the allies in what is happening?
In this report, we present an assessment of the repercussions of the killing of Idriss Déby on the situation in Chad and the region, in the form of a question and answer.
Who is the FACT?
The Chadian armed opposition is made up of a number of factions that oppose the regime in N'Djamena, some of them are old and others are newly established. "FACT" was established in 2016 after the leader of the front, Mohamed Mahdi, split from the regime, after he entered into a reconciliation with Déby in 2005, and the front took over From Libya, a site to organize its ranks, and a starting point to search for strength, training, arming and preparation.
What is new carried by the armed Chadian opposition this time?
This was not the first time that the opposition entered the war, and it aimed to confront the regular army and uproot its rule, but this time it was distinguished by a number of advantages that may have played and will play in the coming days a role in influencing the political scene in Chad. , And the quality and quality of the armament that enabled it to penetrate to the depth, despite the availability of the air force and the exposure of the desert nature, which gives an advantage to warfare.
The opposition managed to shoot down 3 fighter jets during the intensification of the fighting, in addition to communicating with the opposition parties at home in order to provide an internal support that contributes to weakening the regime, and blocking the road to it before the launch of a new term of clutching military rule.
Why didn't France intervene this time?
France saved the late Deby by direct intervention twice: the first was in 2008, when opposition tanks knocked on the doors of the presidential palace, defeating the rebels and dispersing their power.
And the second time in 2019, when the opposition entered the northern border and bombed it for three consecutive days, destroying the entire military strength of the opposition.
However, France did not move this time to save its ally Deby, despite the availability of information via satellite monitoring, which opened the doors to many questions and questions that may indicate a French desire to end the era of Deby.
But Deby's sudden departure puts France, which has its largest military base in Chad and has nearly 5,000 soldiers, facing new challenges to ensure the continued role of Chad in fighting militant groups on the African coast.
France also seeks to maintain a state of balance, in exchange for the increasing influence of other international parties such as the United States, Russia and China.
What is the truth about the Chadian scene after the absence of Deby?
The army announced the formation of a military council to run the country for an 18-month period, and took a number of decisions, including dissolving the government, abolishing the constitution, and closing borders.
The parties interacted with the announcement of the army at various levels, but the political and military opposition dealt with it with suspicion and suspicion, for fear of the military’s tendency to inherit.
The reactions to the military announcement were as follows:
He was welcomed by France and the Western powers as he kept the country from slipping into another wave of violence and strife, in the absence of an alternative unknown to them, and perhaps in search of attempts to restore the Deby regime, which is their strongest ally in the region and the one with great services in achieving their agendas.
Chadian political forces, represented by more than 30 parties, rejected the military council and dissolving the constitution, because it undermines the democratic process, even in its minimal forms.
The armed opposition, for its part, rejected the military council, and considers it a circumvention and a repetition of Deby's rule, explaining that it will escalate its military operations and continue fighting until the remainder of Deby's rule is overthrown.
A group of army officers announced their rejection of the head of the military council and not the military council itself, but it is part of the post-Deby scene, which is considered by some to be a dispute within the ruling family.
The important observation here is that all parties have embarked on an attempt to raise their ceiling and their positions in preparation for the transitional phase, in search of greater gains in the post-transitional phase, and the matter will necessarily depend on the nature and conditions of the transitional phase, and the accompanying movement and re-formation of alliances between the various parties at home and abroad.
What is the effect of Deby's absence on the home and abroad at this time?
At the internal level, there is an opportunity to move away from the army's hegemony over the reins of power for long periods, and backwardness in all areas of life, due to spending on armaments and preparation for internal and external confrontations, especially since the political arena witnessed the growth of political awareness among different sectors of society, despite the sharp polarization attempt that it practiced. The late Deby, and the purchase of political leaders' receivables to empty the parties of leaders with capabilities that may pose a threat to his rule, provided the cohesion of the political forces and their circumvention around a program for civil transition and the rejection of the army’s continued rule.
On the external level, the Sahel region lost the most important, fiercest and strongest fighters in the face of armed groups, which provides the opportunity for the expansion of armed movements in the Sahel region, in the absence of the main force that they were facing, at the time when the demand for the return of Chadian forces to the country began. The lion’s share in the forces of Operation Barkhane led by France from Chad.
France and the Western powers lost the most important ally in the region, as it was not skeptical in responding to the demands of the Allies in the West in the Sahel region, in the north in Libya, and in the East to support the Sudanese movements, and to open the Chadian territories to the bases of friends and sites for monitoring and dealing with the African ocean, for its central location on the continent, which provides ease Movement in all directions.
Where does the African Union stand from developments in Chad?
It seems that the African Union has fallen into a dilemma of describing the Chadian case, and has expressed its follow-up of the situation with deep concern, and that it rejects the opposition's attacks on the government, without going into details of what the military authority should follow, which dissolved the government and abolished the constitution, perhaps because the chairperson of the African Union Commission Musa Faki, a man close to the late Deby, who is most likely thinking about inheriting power after his friend, and his kin ties to the elements holding the state's knuckles support him, his long service experience in a number of ministries, and the satisfaction of Deby's allies with him.
How to imagine the fate of the situation in Chad?
It is difficult to determine the direction of events in Chad in light of a volatile region in all directions, in the north, where the situation is pounding in Libya, and to the west, the Sahel region, where armed movements proliferate day after day, and to the west, where the Darfur region is intertwined with Chad and is very expert in the rebel movements from both countries. And to the south, to Central Africa, where Russian "Wagner" gangs and transnational militias are laid off, and in the interior, where confrontations can resume at any moment.
In addition to the recent disagreements within the Zaghawa themselves with the Idris Deby family (Itno), the proliferation of armed movements, and the absence of a leading figure at Deby's level among the ruling group, all factors make it difficult to understand the future of Chad.
However, this scene opens up great opportunities if the conflicting parties reach understandings for the entry of elements from the civil elites and political parties to lead the next stage, at least through equal governance in the first period, and gradually to reach civilian rule in Chad, which is possible, but it needs strong will and alliances. A wide range of political forces, preventing any opportunities for the army to enter power again.
Then what?
Despite the bleak picture presented, the opportunity is great to overcome the current crisis, by not repeating the state of exclusion, rejecting the domination of the tribes in power, and removing the army from domination of the reins of power.
The Chadian situation today needs the auspices of the African Union to help bring about a peaceful transition of political life and provide opportunities for all equally, in addition to the ECOWAS group, with which Chad has participated in the wars in search of stability.