After the Chadian government announced that President Idriss Déby was killed on Tuesday, April 20, due to his wounds on the battlefield as he waged battles against the Front for Accord for Change in northern Kanem (northern Chad), and his son, Lieutenant General Mohamed Idriss Déby, assumed the presidency of a transitional military council that was established in The same day the president’s death was announced, which shocked the Chadian street and the international community, who in turn asked: Where are the situations heading in Chad?
Especially if we take into account the presence of the armed Chadian opposition forces inside the Chadian territories, not far from vital areas and strategic cities such as Kanem and Bahr El Ghazal.
France relies in its policies to change the systems of government in Chad on the model of a military coup through an armed rebellion, as happened in 1975, 1979, 1980 and 1991, and perhaps in 2021 a coup happened in some way with internal and external prior arrangements, and the formation of the military council with such speed and the issuance of French decisions and statements supporting the council This narrative is strongly supported.
We are trying to answer this question despite the scarcity of information and the blurry internal positions in Chad or the regional and international levels.
The reality on the ground indicates that the situation will lead to an escalation by the armed Chadian opposition (the Accord Front for Change), led by Dr. Mahdi Ali, based on its strength and high morale after the announcement of Déby's death.
It may refuse any dialogue with the transitional military council because it does not recognize it and the unconstitutionality of the council, which violates the Chadian constitution, according to the Chadian armed opposition and civil opposition.
On the other hand, the military council that was formed so quickly and installed the president's son, Lieutenant General Mohamed Idriss Deby, as president for an 18-month transitional period suggests that there is a pre-arrangement for this, which pushes us towards understanding France's role in the current conflict in Chad.
France is the main actor in the course of events in Chad, and it is the one that manages affairs in its former colony in Africa in accordance with its interests.
France always relies in its policies to change the regime of government in Chad on the model of a military coup through an armed rebellion, as happened in 1975, 1979, 1980 and 1991, and perhaps in 2021 a coup happened in some way with internal and external prior arrangements, and the formation of the military council with such speed and the issuance of French decisions and statements in support of The Council strongly supports this narrative.
What drives France to have a role in the current change is turning a blind eye to the Chadian opposition’s movement coming from Libya, leaving it, entering deep into Chad, reaching 300 kilometers from the capital, and clashing with government forces. Despite its knowledge of the opposition’s movements, France did not take any step to prevent the opposition’s march into the interior. Chad, as it did with the faction of the Rally of Forces for Change in Chad in 2019 led by Timan Radimi.
Here we wonder: Why does France want to change the government in Chad?
France is living under popular pressure, international organizations and some members of the European Union, especially Italy and Spain, which are demanding that France give up its support for dictatorial regimes in Africa, which in turn cause instability in those countries, and push young people towards irregular migration to Europe, whose burdens are borne by countries. Such as Italy, whose Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio stated in January 2019 about France's role in the waves of immigration arriving in Europe, and the European Union called for sanctions against France because of its policy in Africa and its continued suppression of the freedoms and rights of those peoples, which prompted France To summon Italy's ambassador to France and file a protest against Di Maio's remarks.
On the other hand, there are financial burdens that France bears in supporting the despotic regimes in Africa, especially in its war against the so-called "terrorism", and the instability that these military campaigns have caused in the Sahel and Saharan countries and the displacement of people inside and outside countries.
These and other reasons pushed France to change its policies towards Africa, abandon some of its allies and replace them with other systems in order to calm the African street and international public opinion.
Some examples of France changing its policies and abandoning its allies:
1. The change of the President of Ivory Coast, Laurent Pagbo, in 2011 after his refusal to step down by Hassan Ouatta (and France intervened militarily to change him, arrest him and bring him to the International Criminal Court).
2. The President of Burkina Faso, Bels Compaore, who was toppled by France through the Republican Guard (whom the current government in Burkina Faso is talking about being tried for his role in the assassination of the late Burkinabe African leader Thomas Sankara).
3. The change of Ibrahim Keita in Mali through a white military coup in 2020, replacing it with a temporary military council, and installing a transitional government.
4. Changing the President of Algeria, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and replacing him with a transitional military council.
5. To replace President Mohamed Yousufo in Niger and replace him with Mohamed Bazoum in 2021.
Among the thorny issues that prompted France to change its policies towards the former colonies was the Russian and Chinese expansion in Africa at the expense of French companies and French influence, and the consequence of this intervention from the decline of French influence in those countries, and the inevitability of it completely losing its influence in the long run in case France continues in Its old policy, which is not in line with the demands of the African peoples supported by Chinese interventions under the cloak of development and development and African military partnerships with Russia, as Russia has 19 military cooperation agreements with African countries, including Nigeria, Sudan, Mali, Equatorial Guinea, Angola and Central Africa, and Russian arms companies It is the largest supplier of weapons in Africa, and also energy and mineral companies have strategic projects in Sudan, Angola, Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Congo and Central Africa.
Russia has organized a summit with the Africans for economic partnership, and Russia signed agreements there that amount to $ 12 billion in 2019.
It is worth noting here that Russia provided military and logistical support to the Central African government (colony of France) against the anti-balaka and Seleka rebels led by former President Bozizi and supported by France through Chad in February 2021, and the rebels were defeated through Russian and Rwandan support for the legitimate government.
These and other reasons prompted France to change its policies towards Africa and once used soft and violent methods for change to improve its image among Africans and the international community.
Will France’s plan for change succeed in Chad, or will it deviate from its course and turn into another focus of conflict in the Sahel and Saharan countries that are delayed by their dangerous security and political situations?
But it is certain that France will not give up its presence in Chad easily and will fight for its interests and will not let the military establishment collapse, given the pivotal role that the Chadian army plays in the campaign against terrorism in the Sahel and Sahara countries, and for the sake of this support, the international community and the Sahel group The Sahara and the countries of the African Union will not let the state collapse, and the best person at this stage France can rely on to lead the stage is the son of the late President Lieutenant-General Mohamed Idriss Deby, who was installed today as president of the country through a transitional charter approved by the Transitional Military Council.
It is expected, according to statements by France, the European Union and the African Union, "led by Moussa Faki, a former Chadian foreign minister and an ally of Deby." Because matters in Chad are heading towards stability, and there may be no military escalation, and a comprehensive reconciliation conference will be organized in Chad under international auspices, through which the Sudan or Mali model may be applied, due to the similarity of the situation in Chad with those countries.