According to several American media, Joe Biden would be on the verge of officially recognizing the Armenian genocide on Saturday, April 24, while until now, no president of the United States had yet risked angering Turkey, Washington's historic ally and member of NATO.

A campaign promise from the Democrat that risks poisoning already tense relations between the West and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has already warned those who propagate a "lie", while the genocide of 1915 perpetrated by the troops of the Ottoman Empire is recognized by some thirty countries, including France, and the community of historians.

While, according to estimates, nearly 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed during the First World War, Ankara refuses the use of the term "genocide" and rejects any suggestion of extermination, citing reciprocal massacres on the background. civil war and famine that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides.

To understand the stakes of a possible recognition of the Armenian genocide by Joe Biden, France 24 interviewed Christian Makarian, columnist and essayist, specialist in international issues.

France 24: How important can the recognition of the 1915 genocide by the President of the United States be in the eyes of Armenians and the descendants of survivors?

Christian Makarian:

There are two dimensions to take into account. The first is at the stage of justice and the universal principles of human rights. It is obvious that for all the descendants of the survivors of the 1915 genocide, this recognition is a quest for justice and historical truth. As such, the Biden administration, which has engaged in a diplomacy strongly marked by the question of human rights, has an interest in reaffirming that 'America is back' under the banner of great principles, in giving Armenians around the world the satisfaction of seeing the historical truth finally proclaimed by the most powerful man in the world, namely the President of the United States.

The second dimension is more geopolitical. It is obvious that President Joe Biden does not maintain the same relationship with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan as his predecessor, Donald Trump. The Democrat, who has repeatedly expressed reservations about Turkish power, pledged during the presidential campaign to recognize the Armenian genocide. Joe Biden, who was twice vice-president of Barack Obama, cannot therefore be satisfied with repeating, with regard to the genocide of 1915, the empathic formulation, but politically limited, chosen by Barack Obama, who had pronounced the Armenian terms of "Medz Yeghern", for "great calamity",then going as far as possible in the sympathy that an American president could show without explicitly recognizing the genocide. Since then, the situation has changed, since the two chambers of the American Congress voted in turn, in 2019, to recognize this genocide. There is therefore an opportunity for Joe Biden, who holds, thanks to Congress, an additional argument to stand out from Barack Obama and go further than him in recognition, by being more categorical. We can say that he has all the cards in hand to do so.an additional argument to stand out from Barack Obama and to go further than him in recognition, by being more categorical. We can say that he has all the cards in hand to do so.an additional argument to stand out from Barack Obama and to go further than him in recognition, by being more categorical. We can say that he has all the cards in hand to do so.

Isn't such recognition in a tense international context with Turkey risky for the United States? Can they afford to get angry with the Turkish president, who could get a little closer to Russia?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is no longer in a position to brandish threats since he has placed himself at odds with Washington. And this, by taking several decisions which strongly offended the American strategic sensitivity, in particular by acquiring Russian missiles S-400, a decision in contradiction with the statutes of NATO, of which Turkey is a member. The US Congress voted sanctions against Ankara in December, which saw a major military program halted as a result of the move. In this context, the Turkish president today finds himself deprived of significant means of retaliation, and seems rather asking for a rapprochement with the United States, while Joe Biden has nothing to gain from a reworking with the president. Turkish. In addition,the American administration is well aware that the game between Russia and Turkey is crippled by ambiguities, rivalries and ulterior motives, which reduces the scope of the threats of a closer rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara.

Why has no American president ever taken the step to recognize the Armenian genocide so far?

Because of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's mistakes, Joe Biden is more master of the game than any of his predecessors were. Turkey had so far played on three factors which are the strength and dynamism of the country's modernization model, the perpetual threats made in the name of NATO membership which the Americans strongly needed, as well as the will to promote mutual economic interests in constant growth. This juxtaposition worked perfectly until the Turkish president went too far in Joe Biden's eyes. Turkey no longer has the economic power it had and is going through a major economic crisis, while its strategic interest within the framework of NATO remains - even if it is diminished by the acquisition of the famous Russian missiles S- 400. As for threats,we have been able to verify that they have never given rise to effective measures. And for good reason: Turkey is a country that needs the rest of the world in a fundamental way and is not in a position today to apply sanctions to the Americans, since it is itself on the edge of the razor's edge. Western sanctions.

The summary of the week

France 24 invites you to return to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 application

google-play-badge_FR