[Depth] "Raul Age" is over, Cuba's "renewal dream" continues
[Global Times reporter Liu Xuxia, Xiao Bailiuzhi] The four-day Eighth National Congress of the Cuban Communist Party has just concluded.
Through this "Unity and Continuation" conference, the Cuban Communist Party elected a new leadership. A few days after Raúl Castro announced that he officially stepped down as the party’s top leader, the 61-year-old "young revolutionary" Diaz -Canel was elected as the first secretary of the Party Central Committee.
In the past few days, the Western media has either hotly discussed the "end of the Castro (brothers) era" or speculated that Cuba will continue to "Castroism", and even some public opinion exaggeratedly said that the new and old leaders of Cuba "the generation gap is very serious." Obviously, Cuba will "change the sky."
These arguments seem to deviate from the basic national conditions of the Republic of Cuba and the changes Raul has tried to bring to Cuba in the past 15 years.
Since Castro announced the start of the socialist revolution in 1961, Cuba has suffered blockades and sanctions from the United States, and has implemented a planned economic system for a long time.
For Cuba, which covers an area of about 110,000 square kilometers and a population of 11.472 million, economic reform is the top priority. However, as Raúl emphasized during his handover, the future ruler "cannot undermine the ideals of justice and revolutionary equality."
The Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba opened in the capital Havana on the 16th of this month.
At the meeting, Raul Castro, the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba, announced that he would step down as the top leader of the party.
The picture shows Diaz-Canel.
"Raul's policy of change will be remembered"
The Castro brothers led Cuba for 60 years and have experienced more than a dozen US presidents.
The US "Time" magazine commented: "Fidel Castro is the heart and soul of contemporary Cuba, and Raul Castro is the fist of the revolution." April 16, this June will turn 90 years old Raul announced that he officially stepped down as the party's top leader.
International public opinion believes that this move marks the end of the "Castro era", but there are also discussions about whether "Cuba will continue to be free of the Castro brothers' "Castroism".
In the inventory of European and American media, Raul left five important achievements during his administration: breaking the ice with the US, lifting some island bans, promoting Internet use, implementing economic reforms, and setting restrictions on the power of Cuban leaders.
On July 31, 2006, Castro handed over the supreme power of the country to Raul for health reasons.
In 2008, Raúl officially succeeded Castro as Chairman of the Council of State and Chairman of the Council of Ministers, and proposed to update Cuba’s economic and social development model, that is, to initiate a series of reforms, including lifting the ban on Cuban citizens to travel abroad and allowing citizens to use it. Buying and selling mobile phones, houses and vehicles have opened the door for Cubans in exile to return to their country, allowing people to use social networks freely, and freely obtain political, cultural, and entertainment information.
In March 2015, the first public place with free Wi-Fi appeared in Havana, the capital of Cuba.
During Raul’s administration, he also adopted a series of economic reform measures, including reducing redundant staff in the state-owned sector, contracting free land to collectives or individuals, expanding the scope of individual households, enacting a new foreign investment law, opening the Marlene Economic Development Zone, and establishing non-agricultural Animal husbandry cooperatives, etc.
External analysis believes that Raul has been in power for more than ten years as the supreme leader, which has opened an era of economic transformation in Cuba, and the once-appearing ice-breaking relationship between the United States and Cuba has also brought a period of prosperity to the Cuban tourism industry.
However, the Cubans also have a clear understanding of the problems encountered in the development of the country.
Ricardo Torres, an economist at the Cuban Economic Research Center of the University of Havana, analyzed that Raul started the "economic renewal" process. Due to many problems encountered in the implementation process, the actual results obtained were relatively limited, but Raul opened up " That commendable door".
Former CIA analyst Brian Lataire once wrote a book about the Castro brothers. He said: “Although Raul has met resistance during these years in power, the transformative policies he tried to implement will Remembered by people."
Raúl led Cuba for nearly 15 years, and through some changes to complete the replacement of the old and the new leadership.
The adoption and implementation of the new Cuban Constitution in 2019 will provide legal guarantees for the renewal of the Cuban model.
According to the 2019 new constitution and the "Elections Law", Cuba has newly established the post of president of the state, and this head of state is elected by the deputies of the National People's Congress.
In October of the same year, Diaz-Canel was elected as the first President of Cuba.
In Raul's view, for more than two years, Diaz-Canel has strengthened the cohesion of the party and the state.
In the eyes of Western public opinion, Raul has passed the torch to "young leaders with the same values."
"Responding to the worst economic crisis since the end of the Cold War"
When it comes to Cuba, tourism and U.S.-Cuban relations cannot be avoided.
Tourism is an important pillar of Cuba's economic development, and it has also become a "barometer" of changes in the relationship between the United States and Cuba.
In December 2014, the then-U.S. President Barack Obama announced the relaxation of restrictions on Cuba.
In July 2015, the United States and Cuba officially resumed diplomatic relations, and the United States opened commercial flights and cruises to Cuba.
After Obama visited Cuba in early 2016, there have been many obvious changes in Cuba.
In the capital Havana cigar store or the "Five Cents Pub" and "Little Florida Bar" frequented by American writer Hemingway, tourists from Spain, Mexico, Argentina, the United States, Canada and other countries have often been seen in the past few years.
According to reports, "American tourists other than Cuban-American citizens" are the second largest source of international tourists after Canadian tourists.
The wife of the current US President Biden visited Cuba after the Obama administration relaxed travel restrictions and visited a local school.
When a reporter from the Global Times visited Cuba in 2019, it was the 500th anniversary of the founding of Havana. At that time, many buildings, museums and characteristic neighborhoods were stepping up repairs. It can be seen that the Cuban government attaches great importance to the “national card” of tourism and wants to attract More international tourists.
Many private restaurants, snack bars, bakeries, souvenir shops, and hairdressers opened their doors to welcome guests, not only bringing convenience to tourists, but also giving the Cuban people more income.
Juan, a resident of Havana, was originally a trainer in the guitar class. In order to support his family, he started part-time as a tour guide and earned some tips.
Juan told reporters: "Being a tour guide for international tourists can make some milk powder money for my little granddaughter."
According to statistics from the Cuban Ministry of Tourism, Cuba received approximately 4.3 million foreign tourists in 2019, but this is a decrease compared with the data of more than 4.7 million in 2018.
The reason is also related to the changes in the relationship between the United States and Cuba.
In January 2017, after Trump took office as President, the US government began to tighten its anti-Cuban policies in areas such as tourism and trade.
In June 2019, Trump ordered the prohibition of people from organizing groups to Cuba for the purpose of humanistic education, and no longer allowed people to travel to Cuba by cruise ships or private jets.
The Trump administration's series of tightening measures have a direct negative impact on the lives of local people in Cuba.
A boss who runs a gallery business on Havana's Ocean Drive complained to a reporter from the Global Times: "In the past, there were a lot of galleries. After the Trump administration prevented Americans from visiting Cuba, my small base business was also at risk.
The sluggish tourism industry has led to a sharp decline in Cuba’s foreign exchange income. In 2019, US dollar remittance income was about 6 billion U.S. dollars. In 2020, it will drop by nearly half year-on-year.
In 2020, after the Cuban economy was severely hit by the global epidemic crisis, its GDP fell by 11%.
In addition to the U.S. embargo and the impact of the epidemic, Cuba’s own weak economic foundation, excessive foreign trade deficit, limited foreign investment, and serious population aging, as well as external factors such as the lack of improvement in the economic situation of Latin American countries, have brought huge challenges to Cuba’s economic recovery.
In early 2021, Cuba achieved currency and exchange rate unification.
Although the Cuban government has taken measures to correct and curb price increases to a large extent, there were still rising inflation rates and shortages of food and medicine at the beginning of this year.
A few days ago, the Cuban government introduced 63 new measures to increase food production and improve food shortages.
According to the "Cuban Daily" report, many Cuban economists advocate increasing flexibility in economic management, reducing dependence on central planning, gradually removing all obstacles to economic development, reforming the Cuban economic structure, and obtaining more foreign investment.
The Russian "Kommersant" reported on the 19th that for the new leadership of Cuba, the pressing issue is how to deal with "the most serious economic crisis since the end of the Cold War."
In the eyes of Western media such as The New York Times, Diaz-Canel is a technocrat. In 2018, he allowed Cubans to use their mobile phones to access the Internet. In January of this year, he also introduced a policy of further opening up private enterprises so that Cubans can access the Internet. Enter more types of businesses.
"Cuba will develop in the direction of a mixed economy. The private economy and the state-owned economy will coexist, and the latter will hold the control of some strategic sectors." Cuban political analyst Carlos Alzugare said, Dias-Canel After mastering the leadership of the party, they will have greater power. The challenge for the new generation of Cuban Communist leaders is to overcome old and rigid ideas. It is particularly important to achieve difficult economic reforms without destroying the image of "continuity."
"Foreign policy will not change significantly"
The United States has imposed an economic blockade on Cuba for nearly 60 years, and Cuba and the international community have continuously condemned it.
Even during the Obama administration, the United States and Cuba resumed diplomatic relations, but the United States has not completely lifted its blockade against Cuba.
The newspaper Grama, the central organ of the Cuban Communist Party, criticized the U.S. blockade against Cuba as a "true genocide" and became a major obstacle to the economic and social development of Cuba.
After the conclusion of the Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, the extent to which the United States has adjusted its Cuban policy and whether the relationship between the United States and Cuba will improve again is still unknown.
A White House spokesperson recently stated that "the adjustment of the Cuban policy is not a top priority for President Biden's foreign policy."
And Diaz-Canel publicly stated in December last year that the United States and Cuba do indeed have political differences and that Cuba is willing to negotiate with the United States on issues other than principled issues such as sovereignty and revolution.
In fact, for the Biden administration, easing the relationship between the United States and Cuba also helps to improve the international image of the United States.
In March of this year, 80 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives jointly urged President Biden to end former President Trump’s "cruel" sanctions on Cuba and end restrictions on travel and remittances.
In an interview with Western media a few days ago, ordinary people in Havana said that they were "disappointed with the slow pace of reform in Cuba", but also emphasized that "the decades-long US embargo has paralyzed the Cuban economy."
Cuba is Russia's strategic partner in Latin America.
The Russian "Viewpoint" recently quoted Kalashnikov, deputy director of the Latin American Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying: "I think that after the power is transferred to the young politician Kanel without a revolution, Cuba will not There will be changes. Canel will not change the current course. In addition, the'Castro political authority' will continue to exist and will affect the situation in the country." Russian "Izvestia" analyzed on the 15th, despite the Cuban leadership People have changed, but they will continue to cooperate closely with Russia, China and other countries. Cuban high-level officials will work on economic reforms, but there will be no obvious changes in foreign policy.
According to public reports, Diaz-Canel is an "old friend of China" and visited China three times from 2013 to 2018.