A prominent Turkish analyst:
Erdogan faces an unexpected rival set to topple him in the upcoming elections
Erdogan's party would win the elections if they were held today.
A.F.B.
The "pandemic" affected the purchasing power of the Turks and made them reconsider the election of Erdogan again.
Archives
picture
Amidst an economic crisis that Turkey is currently witnessing due to sometimes unsuccessful economic policies, the Corona virus pandemic came to increase these problems to burden the average citizen, as poverty has become troublesome for many Turks, and this is clearly reflected in the ratios of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Burak Bakdil, a prominent Turkish analyst and fellow at the Middle East Forum in the United States, said in a report published by the US Gatestone Institute that after 19 years of continuous rule, it seems that the Islamic strongman in Turkey, President Erdogan, is still politically unchallenged. With the presidential and parliamentary elections approaching after two and a half years, reliable research has shown that he is still the most popular politician, with his closest competitors far below him in opinion polls, but he is now facing an unexpected rival that may topple him.
The Metropole Foundation, an independent polling firm, recently revealed that Erdogan's popularity stands at 31%, followed by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) at 17.4%.
If elections are held today, the MHP, Erdogan's partner in the ultra-national coalition, would win by 7.2%, bringing the government bloc's vote to 38.7%.
The opposition bloc, a fragile coalition of six parties of different ideologies, will win a total of 36.1%.
Polls say Erdogan's followers are following him without question.
At a new height of the national currency crisis in November, Ali Karahasanoglu, a pro-Erdogan columnist, wrote that "even if the dollar rose to 15 pounds (from 8.50), we will not give in to the executioner."
He wrote, "We prefer one dollar for 15 pounds instead of 8.50, so that we do not see Turkey follow America's orders."
Since then, things have not gone well for Turkey, and in March, the pace of inflation in Turkey accelerated for the sixth month in a row, as the weakness of the lira led to a rise in the cost of imports, which made it difficult for the new central bank governor in the country to fulfill Erdogan's desire for Easing monetary policy.
Consumer prices increased by 16.19% year-on-year.
For most of the past three years, the country's inflation rate has remained stuck in double digits.
Shihab Kafcioglu, appointed by Erdogan in March, is the fourth central bank governor since 2019. Nagy Aghbal, Kafcioglu's predecessor, was appointed less than five months ago.
The fate of 128 billion dollars
All this turmoil came at a time when the main opposition is demanding to know what happened to the $ 128 billion it says were sold from the central bank’s reserves.
The disappearance of such a large sum of money remains a mystery.
It appears that the central bank has been selling dollars constantly to defend the falling lira, but it does not disclose to the banks to which it sold its dollars and at what exchange rates, thus raising suspicions about corrupt deals.
On March 19, the central bank raised the one-week repurchase rate by 200 basis points to 19%, bringing the cumulative increase in the past four months to 875 basis points.
This makes Turkey one of the top 10 countries in the world to borrow at more cost.
Turkey's sovereign credit default swap was at 444.69 points on April 5, the highest among western and emerging economies.
These clear examples of mismanagement come when most Turks feel crushed by severe economic hardship and the prospect of further poverty, as the country also faces problems in its management of the "Covid-19" pandemic.
On April 2, Turkey confirmed the registration of 40,809 new cases of "Covid-19", setting a record in one day of injuries since the outbreak of the pandemic.
The shutdown has already put a lot of economic pressure on small businesses.
A total of 125,000 small businesses and shopkeepers went bankrupt during this pandemic.
This leaves an estimated 500,000 people in Turkey severely affected by the unfortunate mix of economic mismanagement and the pandemic, including shopkeepers and their families.
The increasing poverty is seen in other official numbers as well.
Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said that electricity distribution companies cut off electricity supplies to 3.7 million families last year due to unpaid debts.
This leaves more than 10 million Turks forced to live without electricity due to the inability to pay the bills.
As of December 11, there were 22,759,000 cases of legal proceedings of unpaid debts on companies and individuals.
Unemployment is another urgent problem, and the official unemployment rate in Turkey in November was 12.9%.
But Disk-R, a trade union, said that the unemployment rate in the same month was actually 28.8%, based on the ILO's calculation.
Erdogan's Dilemma
Erdogan faces a difficult dilemma, as the double dose of vaccinations has been given to only 5.8% of the population, while the country aims to vaccinate 50 million people by the fall, or 59.5% of the entire population.
This means that Turkey must maintain its own lockdown rules, but more closures will mean more economic contraction, especially in a country that relies on tourism industry revenues.
This pandemic has further impoverished Turkey's fragile economy.
It threatens to inflict worse damage on the budgets of poor households, which are the core of the electorate.
One recent study says that those loyal to Erdogan are the largest number of voters who will vote differently or abstain in the upcoming elections.
The Metropole poll showed that a third of voters who support Erdogan will not vote for him, abstain, or remain undecided.
And Erdogan's biggest political rival appears to be poverty.
• The Metropole poll showed that one-third of the voters who support Erdogan will not vote for him, or abstain from voting or have not decided yet, and it appears that the biggest political rival for Erdogan is poverty.
• The Metropole Foundation revealed that Erdogan's popularity reached 31%, followed by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) with 17.4%. And if the elections are held today, the National Movement Party, Erdogan's partner in the ultra-national coalition, would win by 7.2%, bringing the government bloc vote to 38.7% / and the opposition bloc, a fragile coalition that includes six parties of different ideologies, will win a total of 36.1%.
Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news