Paris (AFP)

New significant losses before a return to the green hoped for in 2022: airlines are still expecting a difficult year, marked by an uneven recovery depending on the geographical areas and remaining at the mercy of the pandemic.

Companies, to which the Covid-19 epidemic has already caused cumulative net losses of more than $ 126 billion in 2020, are still expected to see their accounts remain in the red of $ 47.7 billion this year, the company said on Wednesday. International Air Transport Association (Iata).

"Reduced losses" compared to 2020, "but suffering which will continue," summed up the organization, which had so far counted on 38 billion net losses this year.

"We believe that it will be necessary to wait until 2022 for the sector to return to equilibrium or to profits", underlined the chief economist of Iata Brian Pearce, during a videoconference.

Iata nevertheless revised its forecast for global passenger traffic slightly upwards, to 43% of the 2019 level, against a range of 33 to 38% mentioned in February.

The companies, burdened by significant fixed costs, "will consume another 81 billion dollars of cash" this year, noted the general manager of the Iata Willie Walsh.

"The pace of the recovery is slower than our forecasts" in December, he noted during the video conference.

Walsh, however, praised the "good news" he said was the expected reduction in company losses compared to 2020.

The 43% of pre-pandemic traffic, expressed in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), would translate to an increase in attendance of 26% over one year, "but this is far from representing a recovery", noted the Iata, stressing that "domestic markets would improve faster than international travel", dependent on border closures and quarantines.

And the recovery will be very uneven depending on the geographic area, with consequences for the financial situation of the companies which operate routes there, explained Mr. Pearce.

- Europe lagging behind?

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In North America, for example, "we expect losses to be reduced dramatically" in 2021, as passenger traffic resumes in the wake of a vigorous vaccination campaign in the United States. , he said.

Overall, the recovery in the regions "will depend on the size of the domestic markets", and Europe is likely to lag behind because its air activity depends a lot on international links, warned the chief economist of Iata.

The organization therefore forecasts passenger activity (in RPK) for North America this year at 68.5% of the 2019 level, but only 33.7% for Europe.

And the domestic American and Chinese markets will have regained their pre-health crisis activity by the end of 2021, she said.

The projections on the situation of the Old Continent are consistent with the figures released earlier Wednesday by the organization federating more than 500 airports in the area, ACI Europe.

According to her, passenger traffic in this equipment should remain 64% this year below its level of 2019, a deterioration of 12 points from its previous forecasts.

Pre-pandemic levels would not be restored until 2025 instead of 2024.

This pessimism was fueled by the results for the first quarter of 2021: passenger traffic at European airports fell by 81.7% compared to the same period two years ago.

Globally, some 2.4 billion passengers will fly in 2021, according to Iata, compared to 1.8 billion in 2020. In 2019, there were 4.5 billion.

The very good performance of freight traffic, whose prices are particularly high, will help companies, but will not be enough on its own to balance their accounts, according to the organization.

The cumulative airline turnover is expected to reach $ 458 billion this year, 23% better than the 372 billion generated in 2020, but still far from the activity of 2019, with 838 billion, according to Iata, which brings together 290 airlines representing 82% of the world's traffic.

© 2021 AFP