The "longest war" of the United States has disrupted Afghanistan for 20 years, and it is the turn of the United States to lose in the "Grave of the Empire"
[Global Times reporter Ding Xuezhen, Li Zhun, Yang Mingjiao, Liu Yupeng] In Afghanistan, known as the "Empire’s Tomb," the United States has fought the "longest war" in its history for nearly 20 years.
Now, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan really looks like the countdown is about to begin.
On April 14, US President Biden announced that the US troops in Afghanistan will withdraw before September 11 this year.
At the same time, NATO also announced that it would withdraw along with the US military.
Afghanistan has been in deep suffering for the past 20 years. Not only has the war caused at least 100,000 civilian casualties, but this fragile country is still facing arduous economic reconstruction and difficult political peace talks.
In this regard, the United States bears an unshirkable responsibility.
Some analysts believe that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is to shift its energy to competition among major powers, but the "burden-ridden" type of U.S. withdrawal will exacerbate the chaos in Afghanistan and even stimulate the world's extreme terrorist forces.
The Afghan and Pakistani experts interviewed by the "Global Times" reporter said that the US war on terrorism was a failure, and the US must withdraw its troops from Afghanistan on a responsible basis.
And 20 years after Afghanistan was disrupted by the United States, how to seek peace and a future will ultimately depend on the Afghans themselves.
It's America's turn to lose at the "Empire Tomb"
The Biden administration chose to complete the withdrawal before September 11 this year, which has many symbolic meanings.
Twenty years ago, the "September 11" incident dealt a heavy blow to the United States. In order to retaliate against the "Al Qaeda" organization, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan on October 7 of the same year.
The U.S. forces quickly captured Kabul, disintegrating the Taliban regime.
However, the US military was deeply mired in the war and continued to increase its troops to Afghanistan in 2010. At its peak, the number of troops stationed in Afghanistan reached 100,000.
In May 2011, the U.S. military began to reduce its presence in Afghanistan after the death of bin Laden in Pakistan.
In 2001, the then US President George W. Bush announced the launch of the war in Afghanistan in the presidential study on the second floor of the White House. He vowed to say, "This is a different war" and "No matter how long it takes, the victory will ultimately belong to the United States."
Nearly 20 years later, in the same study, Biden announced that he would end the war in Afghanistan and said that the United States had completed its anti-terrorism goal. "It is time to end the longest war in the United States and it is time to let the US military go home."
But American public opinion believes that "the war in Afghanistan was a failed war."
Over the past 20 years, more than 20,000 American soldiers have been injured in Afghanistan and more than 2,300 soldiers have been killed.
This longest war has made the United States lose its "prudence."
"After September 11, there will be no foreign troops in Afghanistan." The Russian "Independence" commentary said that Afghanistan is often referred to as "the tomb of the empire." Historically, foreign invaders who believed in their military superiority lived in mountainous terrain. After fighting and encountering the tenacious resistance of the Albanian tribe, they were defeated. "The British army in the 19th century and the Soviet army in the 20th century ended in failure in Afghanistan. Afghanistan played a certain role in the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the British Empire is also the same now. It's America's turn."
The "Independent" article also believes that the United States may still lose the future in Afghanistan, "almost certainly, in the future political situation in Afghanistan, the Taliban will play a greater role than the United States."
The US intelligence agency recently released an annual assessment report that believes that if there are no US and NATO forces to support the Afghan government forces, the Taliban may have an advantage in combat with the government forces.
The report also believes that the two sides are unlikely to reach a peace agreement in 2022.
Bilal Shaukat, a researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict at the University of Peshawar in Pakistan, told the Global Times: “If the purpose of the United States in launching this war was only to eliminate Al Qaeda, then maybe they succeeded. But from In a broader sense, the so-called'war on terrorism' is a failed war, and the United States has got nothing. Terrorist attacks continue on a global scale, and the civilian casualties and refugee issues caused by the war are difficult to deal with." He also Said: "If the United States invests the large sums of money spent on this war into education, medical care and other humanitarian peace in Afghanistan, the benefits of such money will be incalculable."
Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Afghanistan Research Center of Lanzhou University, told the Global Times that about half of the civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan in the past 20 years were related to the US military. The war also caused more than 2 million refugees to become refugees and caused immeasurable direct and indirect economic losses.
Due to the self-interest of the United States, what is left is a torn and chaotic Afghanistan, which will have a negative impact on Afghanistan and the region for a long time.
"The narrative of the failed American war on terrorism"
Compared with the May 1 withdrawal deadline agreed by the Afghan Taliban and the Trump administration in peace talks last year, the Biden administration’s withdrawal timetable has been postponed for several months.
In this regard, Danyuk, deputy director of the Institute of Strategic Research and Forecasting of the Russian People’s Friendship University, stated that the United States is deliberately refusing to fulfill its obligations and finding reasons to continue to use the military infrastructure established during its 20-year stay in Afghanistan.
In any case, the United States, which is about to leave, is likely to leave Afghanistan with a mess.
Some Russian media believe that the United States has always claimed to be the "arbitrator and policeman of the world", but "the Afghanistan War has become a costly and enduring geopolitical humiliation for Washington."
After fighting for 20 years, the US military had to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban and withdraw from Afghanistan, which was also a betrayal of the Afghan government.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, worries that the withdrawal plan may lead to civil war, ethnic cleansing, and national division in Afghanistan, putting Afghanistan at the risk of becoming a safe haven for terrorists.
Afghan "Daily Observatory" columnist and political analyst Hujatula Zia told the "Global Times" reporter that the current Afghan people are generally disappointed and worried about the Biden government's troop withdrawal arrangements.
Zia said: "The problem now is that the withdrawal of the U.S. forces is likely to create a security vacuum in Afghanistan, and cause public concern, such as fear of a civil war." He believes that the United States waits until a breakthrough in internal negotiations in Afghanistan before announcing its withdrawal will be negative. Responsible approach.
Zia said: "The narrative of the US government's war on terrorism is a failure, so the US military and its allies want to withdraw. The Afghan war cost the Afghan people heavy sacrifices, and the warring parties caused incalculable harm to civilians."
Among the countries in the region, Pakistan is most concerned about the situation in Afghanistan.
Amina Khan, a senior researcher on Afghanistan at the Islamabad Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Global Times: “With the Biden administration’s announcement of the withdrawal plan, there is a risk of civil war in Afghanistan. The United States must ensure that Afghanistan can enter some form before its withdrawal. A stable state is the responsibility of the United States. Washington needs to put pressure on Kabul and the Taliban to advance the peace talks between the two parties, or force any one or both parties to compromise. Specifically, the United States needs to persuade the Kabul government to give up power to accept the new The political arrangements of the country also need to pressure the Taliban to effectively reduce violence."
Musharraf Zaidi, chief executive of Pakistani think tank Tabadrab, emphasized that “the United States has repeatedly refused to accept the reality of the high political complexity of Afghanistan” as the main reason for the protracted war. Whether Afghanistan is good or bad depends on the direction of the peace process. Once the Taliban uses this to increase their offensive, it will cause "troublesome consequences" to Afghanistan and neighboring countries and regions.
Afghanistan covers an area of approximately 650,000 square kilometers, has a population of approximately 32.2 million, and more than 85% of Sunni Muslims.
After stepping down in 2001, the defensive Taliban have not given up their armed struggle, and even recently threatened that the United States and NATO troops will not withdraw as scheduled and will re-launch their attacks.
In some Pashtun areas in eastern and southern Afghanistan, the Taliban still have a certain influence.
In Kabul, most ordinary people believe that all US troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, but some people also said that “the existence of the US military is a deterrent and can ensure that Afghanistan will not fall into the hands of the Taliban again”.
According to Amar, the public relations manager of Afghanistan's C4A think tank, Afghans are full of expectations for a real peace situation.
Before the outbreak, the Afghan government encouraged foreign investment to enter, so foreign businessmen, including Chinese investors, have successively "tested the waters" of the Afghan market.
According to his understanding, the Afghan government once provided free land use rights for a Chinese businessman to open a factory for 20 years.
In the past few years, due to lack of electricity, the Kabul government had to provide electricity to various neighborhoods in turn, and most of the newly built buildings were in relatively safe and wealthy areas.
Amar said that with the entry of foreign investment, some new conditions have emerged in Kabul. For example, roads and buildings are being built in many places, and there is basically no power outage at present.
At present, the per capita GDP of Afghanistan is only more than 580 U.S. dollars.
According to a reporter from the Global Times, the livelihood of Afghanistan has not changed significantly in the past three to four years.
The reporter had communicated with ordinary police in Kabul. The monthly salary they got was about 1,200 yuan, but the price of 1 kilogram of beef and mutton in the supermarket was about 40 yuan.
The monthly income of university teachers is about 1,500 to 3,000 yuan, which is considered to be a middle-to-high income in the local area.
Due to terrorist attacks from time to time, there are still checkpoints in important neighborhoods of the capital Kabul.
Will the "Proxy War" be staged in Ahmedabad?
A recent comment from the Russian Satellite News Agency mentioned that after the United States announced its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration will also be entangled in whether Pakistan, Russia, China, India, and Turkey will "do more" in Afghanistan, and "worry about countries that are not friendly to the United States." It may fill the vacuum after the U.S. withdrawal."
The Washington Post and other American media exaggerated that “Biden ended the nightmare in Afghanistan”. While the Biden administration announced its decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, it also emphasized “shifting the global strategic focus to current priorities”, including "Responding to China's competition."
In response, Niu Xinchun, director of the Middle East Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, wrote an article that some public opinion in the United States advocates that the U.S. withdrawal is to concentrate its efforts against China. The main reason is to "borrow the donkey on the slope" to find a personal excuse for the embarrassing retreat of the United States. .
For some time, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan has been regarded as a "chicken rib" by some international observers, but in Zhu Yongbiao's view, the U.S. has reaped huge benefits from the 20-year war in Afghanistan—not only through the anti-terrorist alliance. He has gained the hegemony system of the United States, and has also expanded its overseas military presence, taking the opportunity to station in the central and western regions of Asia, and experimenting with many new weapons and tactics in Afghanistan.
He believes that through the Afghanistan War, the United States has strengthened its strategic threats to China, Russia, Iran and other countries, and has contained or consumed the strategic resources of relevant countries.
Zhu Yongbiao told the "Global Times" reporter that after the United States withdraws, Afghanistan may be dragged into the "proxy war" stage, and even regional powers such as India and Pakistan will increase support for proxies either overtly or secretly.
At the same time, various extreme terrorist forces and drug-related forces will also find "paradise" in Afghanistan.
He believes that the complete withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan will also stimulate the world's extreme terrorist forces.
Some analysts believe that if the situation in Afghanistan is unstable in the future, the negative impact of China's western border area will be long-term and complicated.