The Navalny case, a thorny diplomatic issue for the EU vis-à-vis Russia
The fate of Alexeï Navalny was one of the predominant topics of the videoconference meeting of the 27 European foreign ministers on April 19, 2021. AP - Francois Walschaerts
Text by: Anissa El Jabri Follow
5 mins
After an avalanche of statements calling for de-escalation in Ukraine and warnings on the state of health of Alexei Navalny, but also sanctions decided in Washington, the 27 decided on Monday to delay and not to take new sanctions against Russia.
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Alexeï Navalny is now hospitalized, the opponent who stopped eating three weeks ago
was transferred to a hospital prison unit
. His state of health is "
satisfactory
" say the Russian prison authorities, which would be a "
lie
" say some of the opponent's relatives. European diplomacy for its part called on Moscow to give Alexeï Navalny "
immediate access
" to doctors in whom "
he trusts
".
This repeated pressure from the West should in any case be handled with care. This support for Alexeï Navalny could indeed also become very cumbersome for him, explains Florent Parmentier, secretary general of Cevipof and director of the Eurasia Prospective site. "
Power does not fear criticism from abroad, power would even feed on it, quite simply with the idea that if foreign, European and American powers do not agree with us, it is is that we defend our interests to us Russia
”, explains the researcher.
“
Even if it is necessary for Europeans and Americans to clearly show a red line, we find ourselves in a complicated situation: it is unthinkable not to support Navalny in his requests for release, it is nevertheless difficult not to pass Alexeï Navalny quite simply for a candidate who would have the favors of the foreigner but not necessarily of Russia
”, continues Florent Parmentier.
New call to demonstrate
A new test could perhaps be played out this Wednesday, April 21, with this call for the demonstration of the supporters of Alexeï Navalny.
A relative test all the same because in February when the announcement of his detention, many Russians had been dissuaded upstream from going out in the street and many are also the demonstrators to have been arrested.
Especially since, this time, these demonstrations must take place on the day of Vladimir Putin's annual speech. The Russian president is speaking this Wednesday in front of the two chambers of the Parliament, he must evoke the “
objectives
” to develop Russia and the legislative elections of next autumn. The opportunity also, Judge Florent Parmentier, to again develop an anti-Western rhetoric. "
The damage caused by the economic crisis since 2014 and the effects of sanctions have, in the representations of power, consequences for Russian citizens," he
underlines.
The best way to ward off this weakening, when we have not been able until now to set up national production chains, when we have, on an economic level, had difficulties in showing its effectiveness, it may be simpler. to show its effectiveness on the outside, that is to say to take sufficiently solid and aggressive positions to show that we are well at the helm
”.
Uniting a country against the outside is a classic tactic, but it is not the only objective.
With this deployment of troops on the borders of Ukraine, deployment "
the most massive ever recorded
", according to Josep Borrell, the EU's high representative for foreign policy, Russia also wants to test its new partner in Washington.
In this phase, the only partner that interests the Kremlin today is the Biden administration.
"
The relationship between the 27 and Russia is a two-stage rocket
"
The agenda for the next few weeks is this American offer for a Poutin-Biden summit meeting in the summer that remains unresolved. However, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the 27 are not negligible partners. “
The relationship between the 27 and Russia is a two-stage rocket, of which only the first stage works,”
explains Cyrille Bret, professor at Sciences Po.
The first stage of this rocket is the sanctions taken by the EU. They are taken very seriously in Moscow, because they deprive Russia of a number of vital needs for its very undiversified economy. They deprive it of a certain technology, in particular for the extraction of hydrocarbons, of access to international markets, and we know that there is chronic underinvestment in the Russian economy. Of course, the EU was
humiliated during Josep Borrell's visit
on February 5, but it was humiliated precisely because it is taken seriously for its capacity to harm Russian prosperity.
"
Finally, Paris and Berlin remain partners.
Germany is in particular an interlocutor to which the Kremlin will turn this fall, because of the economic ties between the two countries but also because of another very specific issue.
After the September elections, it is the new German government which will have to decide whether or not to complete
the work on Nord Stream 2
, this Russian gas pipeline which must bring gas to Germany bypassing Ukraine.
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Russia
Alexei Navalny
Diplomacy
European Union