The Russian military escalation in eastern Ukraine raises many questions about the backgrounds of the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine for 7 years, and the reasons that drive the continuation and complication of this crisis.

The following are answers to some of these questions, and he mentioned the causes of the crisis and the ongoing escalation:

How important is Ukraine to Russia?

Ukraine has great importance to Russia, of course, as it is historically the cradle of the civilization of the "Kievan Rus" kingdom, and the Slavic race spread between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.

Politically and economically, Ukraine is a major neighbor for Russia, and it enjoys vast and huge military, industrial and agricultural wealth and capabilities, and a geographical location that separates it from the "camp of Western powers."

As for culturally and socially, the two countries are linked by great relations, especially in the border areas.

All these things have made Ukraine a "back garden" for Moscow, which refuses to give it up and turn it into a "guardianship of the West" after decades of subordination and loyalty, if you will.

When did the crisis start?

Since the independence of Ukraine in 1991, the Ukrainian-Russian relations have witnessed many events and periods of tension, but they did not reach the point of hostility until the end of 2004, when the Ukrainian Orange Revolution inclined towards the West flared up.

Then, the West entered strongly on the line of relations, supporting the bias of the revolution towards it;

But the ruling returned strongly to the pro-Russia in 2010.


With the outbreak of the "European Square" protests at the end of 2013, the Ukrainian scene took another dimension in which the Western orientation and the national role increased, at the expense of the decline of the roles and influence of the "pro-Russian".

What are the causes of war?

Under the pretext of protecting the Russian citizens, Russia annexed the lands of the Crimea peninsula to it in March 2014, and supported a military separatist movement in the eastern Donbas region, although it denies that support altogether.

Many believe that the reason for "annexation and war" is due to the fact that Russia (after 2014) is no longer able to keep Ukraine on its side politically, and its feeling that Ukraine's growing inclination towards the West poses a threat to it, especially since Kiev has abandoned the trait of non-alignment and is openly seeking To NATO membership.

And an expert on Ukrainian affairs at the "Atlantic" Center for Studies, writer Peter Dickinson, believes that "the fact that the popular desire to return to past relations with Russia and the absence of nostalgia for periods of unity with it (under the Soviet Union) is absent is a matter that separates the two countries, and may constitute an infection between member states in The Russian Federation also, so it should be "fought" according to the Russian political mentality, he said.

Ukraine's President Zelensky speaks at a press conference with European Council President Charles Michel about the crisis (Reuters)

What does Russia want from Ukraine?

Based on the foregoing, Russia refuses Ukraine's membership in any Western bloc, especially NATO, and considers this a direct threat to its security.

This is why - according to many experts - it seeks to obstruct Ukraine’s efforts in that direction, and to keep it as a buffer zone with Western powers as much as possible, after the option of "returning loyalty" has become unlikely.

Experts also believe that this made Ukraine an undeclared battleground between Russia and the West, which is still in the stage of cold and stalemate to this day.

What pressure is Moscow on Kiev and the West?

Kiev does not have many tools for pressure on Moscow, and the reverse is not true, because the latter holds on to several tools, files and issues, among the most prominent of which we mention: - The


annexation and breakdown of Crimea, which is what Ukraine considers an occupation of its lands.


Supporting separatists in the east of the country, who do not hide expansionist dreams that amount to almost half the size of Ukraine.


The gas paper represented by the "Nord Stream2" project, which threatens the Ukrainian transport networks.


- Of course, the Western camp fears the growing military and economic influence in the region. Here, the Baltic states and Poland, which was once part of the Soviet Union as well, are most concerned about the "ambitions to restore Putin's former glories."

How does the West face Russia?

Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis since 2014, the European Union, the United States, Canada and other countries imposed many political and economic sanctions on Russia, which was excluded first from the "G8" group, and then from participating in the corridors of the European Parliament.

Those countries supported Ukraine with large financial aid, directed mainly towards reforms aimed at implementing the membership standards of the European Union and NATO, as well as towards the field of assistance to people displaced from war and tension areas.

Perhaps the largest and most "powerful" of this aid - if you will - was from the United States, and it came in the form of military aid, weapons systems, missiles (Javelin) and joint training, with a volume of about $ 2 billion, according to the US embassy in Ukraine.

What are the factors for escalation in 2021?

Russia is massing its forces on the borders of Ukraine in a large and unprecedented manner, and this is due to several factors and developments, the most important of which is the


change of the US administration, the Biden administration's tightening with Moscow regarding the Ukrainian crisis, the possibility of Russian interference in the elections, in addition to the growing military relations between Ukraine and Turkey, where Turkey has become a major source of drones for the Ukrainian army, and the last factor is a campaign launched by the Ukrainian authorities weeks ago against the influence and symbols of the pro-Russian opposition.

Many describe the recent escalation as a show of muscles between Moscow and Washington, and this may explain the volume of statements and the exchange of accusations between the two sides, in addition to the Ukrainian statements.

Observers are watching with interest the development of Ankara's position on the crisis, which is also concerned with curbing the growth of Russian influence in the north and south, in the Black Sea and Syria.

The crisis erupted after Ukraine announced the death of one of its soldiers by the Russian-backed separatist fire in the east of the country (European)

What are the limits of escalation?

According to the White House, it is difficult to predict the reality of the Russian objectives from this large crowd, but it is certain that Washington and NATO deal with it seriously.

Ilya Kusa, an expert in international relations at the "Ukrainian Institute for the Future", believes that "Russia does not want a large war, but it is preparing for it, and today - at a time when it is internally spreading fears of" threatening the West "- it is practically threatening it (the West and NATO).

The expert says, "We expect to increase US support for Ukraine, without risking its annexation to NATO, which will open the gates of hell; in return, Russia will gradually advance its forces, preparing for a war that seems inevitable in the near or distant future."