If the cabinet takes the first step in the relaxation plan too quickly, a higher corona peak will follow, which will also last four weeks longer than with a later relaxation.
The Outbreak Management Team (OMT) warns about this in an advice to the cabinet on Wednesday.
The abolition of the curfew and the reopening of terraces are part of the first relaxation.
"Implementing all of the eases from step 1 in the roadmap too early will extend the peak occupancy time by approximately four weeks," said the experts.
The OMT, the government's most important advisory body in this area, therefore argued in favor of not implementing any major easing yet.
The experts expect the corona peak to occur at the end of April or the beginning of May, because the cabinet has maintained the current package of measures.
"Only when the peak has been passed with certainty, the OMT advises to implement easing", outgoing Minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Health) quotes the experts in a letter to Parliament.
See also: This is the roadmap for a society without measures in August
Great uncertainty about expected corona peak
However, it is uncertain how high the peak will be.
The OMT says the number of ICU admissions can reach from 800 to 850, but also seriously takes into account 1,000 corona patients on the ICs.
The number of hospital and IC admissions depends on the effect of the current measures and the extent to which the vaccination campaign is progressing according to plan.
The OMT had not yet taken into account the injection break and the decision to stop administering the AstraZeneca vaccine in sixty-year-olds.
In addition, deliveries by pharmaceutical company Janssen have also been halted, because research is being done into a possible link between the corona vaccine of this Leiden company and rare thrombosis.
Gommers: 'Really don't relax until all over-60s have been vaccinated'Keywords: