Indo-Pacific: a new zone of influence to counter China?

Ships of a Chinese maritime militia lined up in the South China Sea, March 22, 2021. "China is militarizing archipelagos which are disputed and call into question international law," says researcher Raphaëlle Khan.

© HANDOUT / AFP

Text by: Clea Broadhurst

9 mins

A trilateral dialogue between the foreign ministers of France, India and Australia is being held this Tuesday, April 13 in the Indian capital, New Delhi.

This includes discussing the measures to be taken to strengthen maritime security and collaborate on common challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

The three foreign ministers plan to talk about the environment, global security and the Chinese posture in the Indo-Pacific. 

Publicity

Read more

Since 2019, France has been developing a new geostrategic discourse around the concept of the “Indo-Pacific”, in particular because the region constitutes for it a crucial element: Paris has been investing economic, political and military capital there for decades.

It should be remembered that France has, because of its territories both in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific, the second world economic zone in the oceanic domain

",

 underlines Jean Luc Racine, research director at the CNRS and specialist in Asia.

According to him, we are witnessing a new concentration of power in Asia and the Indo-Pacific and a summit such as this is " 

a way for France to remind people that it is a power, that it has interests. national and international in both the Indian Ocean and the Pacific.

This is one opportunity among others, but the meeting of April 13 is one of the possibilities to reaffirm the legitimacy of the French presence in the major discussions within the framework of what is today called the Indo-Pacific.

"

Economically speaking, " 

it is a region which concentrates a third of international trade, these maritime trade routes are a vital transit space for this international trade and all actors have an interest in securing these lines, considering that the Indian Ocean is characterized through strategic choke points that make these lines particularly vulnerable,

 explains Raphaëlle Khan, associate researcher at the Asia Center at Harvard University.

 “

At the economic level, with regard to France, 40% of non-EU imports come from the Indo-Pacific and 34% of its non-EU exports go to the Indo-Pacific, these are quite significant figures

”, 

 continues -it. 

India, a pivotal country

The fact that the dialogue is taking place in India allows New Delhi to assert its positions on the international scene.

For India, this is one of the affirmations of its desire to be one of the pivotal countries in this Indo-Pacific space and it is above all a way of reaffirming the links with France

",

 explains Jean Luc Racine.

New Delhi is increasing the number of “mini-lateral” (small meetings between different countries, editor's note) “ 

even though India should host the next BRICS summit in a few months (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, editor's note) in which there will therefore be China and Russia

”.

 According to the researcher, geopolitical dynamics are moving more and more and New Delhi intends to recall that India is an emerging power and is increasing partnerships in the name of strategic autonomy. 

India joined France, Japan, the United States and Australia in the naval exercise "La Pérouse" which was held in early April in the Indo-Pacific zone.

These countries deployed warships for a joint maneuver that follows several other Allied naval exercises in the seas of Asia and the Indian Ocean.

France is in the process of seeing how it can interact with the QUAD (Quadrilateral Dialogue for Security, an informal cooperation between the United States, Japan, Australia and India, note), but the QUAD, this are four different countries, with which Paris maintains relations specific to each one

”,

 underlines Cleo Paskal, researcher on the Indo-Pacific at the Chatham House Institute.

In the context of this trilateral summit in New Delhi, we are talking about two members of QUAD, India and Australia, who “ 

have just bought major military aircraft from France, which shows that relations are already well established.

"

In addition, the researcher emphasizes that France is ahead when it comes to its relations with India, “ 

especially in the Indian Ocean.

The two countries have cooperated on subjects such as space, the maritime domain.

For decades, the relationship between France and India has actually been one of the strongest among the QUAD countries

.

Counterbalancing China's Growing Power

The interest of the Western powers is directly

linked to the growing

power of China, continues Raphaëlle Khan: “ 

At the security level, the problem is that we have a mutual insecurity that is growing, with increased military spending and increased militarization of the region.

China is militarizing archipelagos that are in dispute.

More generally, it is calling into question international law, the United Nations convention on the law of the sea and militarization is also an expression of growing competition between the United States and China in the region and regional powers.

According to Cleo Paskal, Beijing is trying to undermine Western countries from within as well as potential regional rivals by using, for example, social media or other means to create division.

“ 

India has suffered in recent months a cyberattack on the Internet network in Bombay.

On the other hand, twenty of its soldiers were killed by Maoists and there was an attack on an iPhone factory.

Everything seems to go back one way or another to China,

 explains the researcher.

According to her, " 

China is trying to make India appear unstable, in order to create so many internal problems that it becomes less able to collaborate with other countries

."

 It's a way for Beijing to try to

break potential partnerships, between Western countries or with countries that may pose a threat to China in one way or another, such as India. 

Today we are witnessing a classic but fascinating diplomatic game.

The QUAD countries and others, including France, speak of Indo-Pacific.

Both China and Russia continue to talk about Asia-Pacific.

Which is not the same thing since it puts India aside, ”

underlines Jean Luc Racine.

The researcher explains that everyone tries not to poison things with speeches but the message is very clear as to the affirmation of the need to have an Indo-Pacific free and open to navigation, according to international rules of law. of the sea. But China still has some assets in hand: “ 

Obviously, first and foremost, its economic power.

We can see this clearly with the somewhat ambiguous place held by the ASEAN countries, which do not want to have to choose between China - which is for many of them the number one economic partner

- and this American alliance which for the India is not supposed to be an alliance but more of a partnership with the United States and its Japanese and Australian allies.

"

Tensions in the region, influenced by alliance games

All this is part of a broader geopolitics in which we must also bring in today the rapprochement between Russia and China: " 

It is a way of responding to the tensions between Russia and Europe after the change of statute of Crimea.

We are far from the ocean shores, but it is this very great game that is being deployed and in this very great game, the QUAD is an important new element.

In parallel with QUAD, this kind of trilateral meeting tends to affirm precisely the multiplicity of channels through which the world is being recomposed,

 concludes Jean Luc Racine. 

The burning issue that comes back on the table is that of Taiwan according to Cleo Paskal: " 

When is China going to launch an attack on Taiwan

?"

Given the way China operates, it will try to erupt tensions in different places.

For example, if Russia goes to Ukraine, if the problems escalate in Burma and if there are other problems with Iran or North Korea, Washington, Paris and London will be concerned about all these other tensions. , which leaves an open door to launch a cyberattack on Taiwan

.

For Cleo Paskal, there is no possible de-escalation, because Beijing is going to stir up a lot of tension and to a certain degree, so will Moscow.

“ 

And in the end, China will have what it wants, which is to take control of Taiwan, but also to try to launch its digital currency in order to undermine the US dollar.

These are the two main goals for Beijing today

.

The researcher explains that there is less and less room for

hedging

- these are strategies consisting in increasing the number of options to minimize risks, in particular through numerous strategic partnerships and "mini-side" agreements.

For Cleo Paskal, “ 

before, countries said they wanted American security and Chinese investments, except that now we are increasingly worried about China, so there are fewer possibilities to navigate between two waters

.

"

Newsletter

Receive all international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

google-play-badge_FR

  • Defense

  • India

  • France

  • Australia

  • Diplomacy

  • Trade and exchanges

  • China

  • United States

  • BRICS

  • ASEAN

On the same subject

Tensions with China: US warship crosses Taiwan Strait

Americans and Chinese face to face in the China Sea

Beijing toughens its tone on Taiwan after military maneuvers in the China Sea