In the coming days, the effectiveness of anti-Covid-19 restriction measures will begin to be evaluated in France.

According to an optimistic scenario, the drop in the reproduction rate could allow it to fall to 5,000 identified contaminations per day in about four weeks.

It all depends on the level of the reproduction rate. 

At the end of March, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced the extension of additional restrictive measures against Covid-19 to the entire territory.

In the 19 departments where these measures had been taken a few days earlier, the decline in epidemic indicators seems to have already started.

Nationally, however, we should know a lot more at the end of this week.

>> LIVE -

Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Tuesday, April 13

The equation is simple.

To observe a possible stabilization of the indicators after the establishment of a containment, it generally takes two weeks.

Among these indicators, the reproduction rate, that is to say the average number of people infected by a patient, will thus be looked at with particular attention.

If we observe that it remains above 1, it will mean that the epidemic continues to increase.

But this hypothesis does not seem privileged.

5,000 cases a day in three weeks?

The measures announced at the end of March, including the closure of schools, could cause the reproduction rate to drop back to 0.7.

As part of this projection, certainly optimistic, the epidemic would decline quickly, as explained by epidemiologist Antoine Flahault on Tuesday on Europe 1.

>> Find the morning show of the day in replay and podcast here

"If this rate is around 0.7 (what we saw in Portugal for example recently), we can hope for a reduction by two in the number of new infections every week," he said.

"That is to say, it will take three more weeks to carry out the new infections of 40,000 to 5,000 cases per day."

CORONAVIRUS ESSENTIALS

> Covid-19: is there really a risk of contamination outside?

> Coronavirus: why can a PCR test be positive one month after infection?

> Are private parties really prohibited with the curfew?

> The English variant would cause slightly different symptoms

> Audio, webcams ... When technology adapts to teleworking

Or in three months?

In this scenario, France would therefore find itself with 5,000 new cases per day around May 10, a reasonable level to properly trace the chains of contamination and control the epidemic.

On the other hand, if containment is less effective and the reproduction rate is 0.9 at the end of the week, it would not take three weeks but three months to return to these 5,000 daily contaminations.