my country will gradually delay the legal retirement age in the next five years, expert analysis
Delay in retirement "how to extend" and "how long"
● The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline propose that my country will gradually delay the legal retirement age in the next five years in accordance with the principles of "small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall planning".
● my country needs to introduce a "flexible retirement" mechanism. In addition to the "legal retirement" age set in the future, two more "flexible retirement" ages are set for the common people to choose
● After the statutory retirement age is delayed, the sustainability of the social security system should be enhanced, and more refined management is needed
□ Our reporter Zhao Li
□ Gu Xiaoyan, an intern of our newspaper
"Gradually" is the key word of my country's upcoming retirement plan.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline propose that my country will gradually delay the legal retirement age in the next five years in accordance with the principles of "small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall planning."
Among them, "flexible implementation" is the biggest and most important feature of postponed retirement reform.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security revealed that delayed retirement will not be "one size fits all". It is not that everyone must reach the delayed statutory retirement age before they can retire, but to reflect a certain degree of flexibility and increase the space for individuals to choose early retirement.
Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently said in an interview with the media about the delay of retirement, my country needs to introduce a "flexible retirement" mechanism, and set two more "flexible retirements" in addition to the "statutory retirement" age set in the future. "Age is for the people to choose.
The "flexible retirement" mechanism is an important means and content for implementing the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age.
Taking into account the needs of different groups of people
Guarantee "flexible" options
Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people.
my country has a population of 1.4 billion and a labor force of 900 million. Solving the employment problem has always been a major task for economic and social development.
The number of college graduates in 2021 reached 9.09 million, a record high.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline clearly stated that in accordance with the principles of "small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall planning", the legal retirement age will be gradually delayed and the full use of human resources will be promoted.
At present, many companies and units regard 35 as the upper age limit for recruitment for ordinary positions.
Delaying retirement means increasing the number of jobs and reducing the number of jobs vacated.
Some people are worried that changes in the supply structure and the "35-year-old +" workplace dilemma will make finding a job more difficult in the future?
"From a static perspective, delayed retirement will have a certain impact on employment. The increase in labor supply will reduce the number of jobs that are naturally vacated. The employment market will face a realistic impact. However, this impact is limited and controllable. The employment of young people is not squeezed too much.” said Mo Rong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences.
"The number of working-age population in my country has been declining for eight consecutive years, with an average annual decrease of more than 3 million people, and the rate of decline is still increasing." Mo Rong analyzed that at the rate of a few months a year or one month every few months. As a result, the labor force that is added every year due to delayed retirement will not be too much, and it will even be offset by the annual reduction of labor force.
However, many experts, including Mo Rong, believe that in the short term, older workers and flexible employees may face greater pressure from competition.
In the view of He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, in the context of my country's rapid aging, we should promote the elderly to do something, but there is indeed a certain degree of age discrimination in the job market.
This not only hinders employment fairness and infringes on the rights and interests of workers, but also conflicts with the deployment of reforms to delay retirement.
At the same time, a reporter from the "Rule of Law Daily" noticed that many doctors, teachers, technicians and other positions are rehiring in various ways after retirement.
"Reverse employment and the delayed retirement discussed now are two concepts. Such a phenomenon already existed when the'delayed retirement' policy was not introduced, and it is not part of the discussion of the'delayed retirement' age. Because before that, including During the planned economy period, the state also had such a policy design for re-employment.” Han Keqing, a professor at the School of Labor and Human Resources of Renmin University of China, analyzed that the current delayed retirement age mainly refers to the basic pension insurance for employees after 2004 in response to the aging of the population. Design.
According to Lu Quan, secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Social Security and associate professor of Renmin University of China, the whole society has not yet reached a consensus on delaying retirement, and some people do not know enough about the specific measures.
Especially in our country, the situation is more complicated, and different groups have different demands.
For example, there are different opinions among men and women, and among employees of government agencies, institutions, and enterprises.
Therefore, when studying delayed retirement plans, it is necessary to fully estimate the impact of the reform on different groups, and try to take into account the needs of different groups.
When studying and designing specific implementation and supporting measures, we should give the people "flexible" options as much as possible, give the people "flexible" options, use policy tools to guide voluntary extension, and complete supporting measures to stabilize the job market.
Uniform and flexible mandatory incentives
Plan carefully and carefully
When talking about delayed retirement policies, one cannot go beyond the background of aging.
Taking 2018 as the time node, four things have happened: the number and proportion of the elderly population in my country have exceeded the number and proportion of children and children, the working-age population has fallen below 900 million, the total number of employed people has declined for the first time, and the birth rate has dropped. The first new low since the founding of New China.
"This means that 2018 marks the beginning of an era in which my country has begun to care for the elderly." On March 17, in the "China Business News" Tentacle Life Protection Classroom series live broadcast, Pangu Think Tank Aging Society Research Center Li Jia, deputy director and researcher, said that after 2050, the proportion of people over 60 years old in my country will remain above one-third for a long time.
With the increase in the average life expectancy (as of the end of 2019, the average life expectancy in my country has reached 77.3 years, and the life expectancy of urban residents has reached 80 years), coupled with the postponement of the employment age of the labor force in my country, the shortening of the working period, the reduction in the number, and the pressure on pensions It is quite possible to delay retirement by increasing the status quo.
You Jun, Deputy Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, once said: “Currently, my country’s retirement age does not match the average life expectancy and does not adapt to changes in labor supply and demand, resulting in a waste of human resources.”
On March 12, the extended retirement "16-character policy" was promulgated.
A reporter from the "Rule of Law Daily" noted that across the world, there are mainly three specific methods for delaying retirement in different countries.
First, men and women are of the same age, that is, the retirement ages of different men and women are unified into the same.
Second, walk in small steps.
Third, flexible retirement, early retirement can be achieved, but the pension is less than normal retirement.
Corresponding to our country, after the introduction of the "16-character policy", Jin Weigang, president of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security Sciences, said in an interview with the media that the reform will not be "one step in place", but will adopt a gradual reform, with a few delays every year. Delayed by 1 month every month or every few months.
In addition, delaying retirement will not implement a "one size fits all" approach, and it is necessary to increase the space for individuals to choose early retirement.
According to Han Keqing's understanding, although the implementation is "flexible", a retirement age line should also be drawn to allow employees to have certain options.
For example, he said, for example, some countries stipulate that if employees plan to retire early, they can receive pensions at 90% or 80% of their pensions. If retirement is delayed, their retirement pensions can be higher than expected. "So, Flexibility does not mean that there is no limit to the retirement age, but to give employees the right to choose whether to retire or not before and after the delineated age line."
In this regard, Lu Quan believes that the delayed retirement plan will have a practical impact on everyone's vital interests, and the needs of individuals, groups, and all must be considered.
Therefore, it is necessary to be particularly cautious and thorough when formulating the implementation plan. It is recommended to grasp the following principles:
One is the combination of unity and flexibility.
The so-called unity means to unify the plan across the country to ensure fairness between different regions; the so-called flexibility means to give the people a certain right to choose, not simply "one size fits all", at least a certain range of choices must be given.
Second, the combination of mandatory and incentive.
Now when it comes to delaying the retirement age, it seems that it is mandatory, and different groups have different feelings. Some existing policy tools can be used to improve people’s enthusiasm and initiative to extend the working life, for example, the pension calculation method and the payment period are more closely related. Combine etc.
Finally, we must complete supporting measures, including paying attention to changes in the employment situation.
Many elderly people are willing to help their children take care of their children after retirement. After the implementation of delayed retirement, socialized childcare services should be actively developed.
In addition, we must also pay attention to preventing unfair phenomena between groups. Different groups and individuals have different work characteristics and treatments. The relevant measures must be comprehensive and flexible to obtain the greatest common divisor.
Retirement age covers a wide range
Supporting measures follow up in time
What will happen to pension receipts after delayed retirement?
Some people worry that the longer and more pension insurance paid, although more pensions will be available every month after retirement, the time for receiving pensions will be shorter and they are worried that personal interests will be damaged.
In the face of related doubts, Sun Jie, deputy dean of the School of Insurance of the University of International Business and Economics, introduced that the basic pension insurance system for employees follows the principle of corresponding rights and obligations.
"The reason for the extension of the retirement age is not the'pension crisis'. From international experience, when Germany extended the retirement age, there was a large surplus of pensions. In fact, the extension of the retirement age is to balance intergenerational relations. The age when our country's labor force first entered the labor market has become late, and people's life expectancy has also increased. This is the main reason for the pressure on pension income and expenditure." Lu Quan said.
So, what other policies related to retirement age in the past will be adjusted accordingly or as the retirement policy is delayed?
"I think the major impacts are the labor market, social security payments and population policies, but the most direct impact is on the labor market, employment and pensions." Han Keqing said.
He specifically analyzed that from the perspective of the labor market, companies need to consider what kind of response measures should be taken in personnel recruitment, training, employment arrangements, and welfare system arrangements after the age of hired employees increases;
From the perspective of social security payment, whether the fund collection and payment period after the employee’s delayed retirement needs to be adjusted accordingly, and whether the level of benefit should be correspondingly improved as the time for receiving pensions is shortened.
"Because the retirement age issue involves all aspects, delaying retirement reform is a systematic project." Han Keqing said.
In the view of industry insiders, delaying retirement cannot be "advanced alone", especially since there are many supporting and guarantee policies and measures related to it, and overall planning and coordinated progress must be made.
For example, it involves optimizing childbirth policies, population migration policies, pension system reforms and pension policy adjustments, aging industry and aging service industry policy layout, aging-oriented medical system reforms, and perfecting the employment security system.
Han Keqing also agreed with this.
He believes that it is not necessary to think about delaying retirement too complicated.
Retirement delay is the adjustment of our country's policy plans in response to social phenomena such as population aging and population surplus increase.
This kind of adjustment will inevitably affect the whole body. It will have a greater impact on the labor market, social security, pension insurance payment system and even the families of individual employees. "These are normal performances under policy adjustments."
However, the process of delaying the implementation of retirement reform will face more specific problems.
For example, how to promote the employment and entrepreneurship of older workers through more targeted skills training, employment assistance and other measures?
How to provide more social security subsidies to eligible persons with employment difficulties, especially those with flexible employment, to help them re-employ?
How to ensure the employment of older workers, how to provide social security subsidies for flexible employees, and how to create more jobs suitable for older workers?
“Some necessary supporting measures still need to be followed up, but there should not be too many structural changes.” Han Keqing believes that “posts suitable for the employment of older people” are closely related to the demographic structure, social needs and industrial structure.
"I am more in favor of setting a retirement age limit, and then adopting a flexible retirement policy. Individuals and employers make choices and adjustments according to their employment wishes and other corresponding conditions." Han Keqing said.
Han Keqing mentioned that after the statutory retirement age is delayed, the sustainability of the social security system should be enhanced, and more refined management is needed. "These are the content that should be considered in the policy plan. Of course, it is not just social insurance and pension insurance. Policies related to elderly care services, elderly care and medical care should also keep up."
Cartography/Li Xiaojun