If, after 16 years of Angela Merkel, the Union were not exhausted in terms of content and, as can be seen in corruption scandals, morally too, it would be easy for a pragmatic and intelligent Prime Minister to win this election.

But the surveys show a clear picture. On the day of the showdown, numbers from Armin Laschet's homeland became known that could hardly be more devastating. The CDU lost nine percentage points in the polls. The tasteless dismantling of their new party leader by the Chancellor was only the culmination of the lack of fortune of the cheerful Aachener.