A report in Foreign Policy questioned whether Russia is preparing to go to war in Ukraine, noting continued military buildup near the Ukrainian border this week, which has deepened the world's concern about Moscow's final intentions as senior Russian officials and state media escalate their attacks. Inflammatory.
The magazine pointed out that what appeared to be a show of force in front of the administration of US President Joe Biden may have become something bigger, as videos posted on social media show convoys of military vehicles arriving in the region from as far away as Siberia, according to an analysis by a Russian investigative group known as Team Conflict intelligence, where forces gather south of the Russian city of Voronezh, about 155 miles from the border with Ukraine.
She commented that this gathering of forces is far enough that an immediate invasion appears unlikely, but close enough to stir up tension, and that troop movements from the western and southern military regions far exceed what would normally be expected for a normal maneuver of the type recently carried out by Russia.
What is bewildering and worrying at the same time about the military buildup in Voronezh, said Kirill Mikhailov, a researcher with the Conflict Intelligence Team, is his apparent offensive position, as the region borders government-controlled Ukraine and not the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk where local proxies depend on Russian support.
The American magazine reported that the military build-up was accompanied by the increasing cries of threatening military force by the Russians.
Senior Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak warned Thursday that a major escalation in the conflict would mark "the beginning of the end of Ukraine."
On Friday, Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov warned that his country might be forced to intervene in the event of a "humanitarian catastrophe similar to Srebrenica", referring to the genocide of more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslims by Serbian forces in July 1995.
This gathering of forces is far enough that an immediate invasion appears unlikely, but close enough to stir up tension, and troop movements from the western and southern military zones far exceed what would normally be expected for a normal maneuver of the type recently carried out by Russia.
The magazine pointed out that the reason for the military buildup is still a mystery, but experts point to domestic factors in Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
Including that the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to decline to its lowest levels, and the Kremlin is still grappling with the epidemic and the mass protests that took place across the country in the wake of the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
In Ukraine, its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has taken an increasingly hard line against Russia, with his popularity also declining.
And there is the new administration in Washington headed by Biden who is familiar with the conflict in Ukraine by virtue of his position as Vice President Barack Obama, says Andrea Taylor, director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for New American Security, "I think there may be some concern in the Kremlin that it is with the incoming Biden administration." Zelensky may feel that he has more leeway to do things Moscow does not like. "
The magazine concluded its report that Putin in the end may wish to repeat what happened in 2008, referring to the Russo-Georgian war after a period of deteriorating relations between the two countries, but he does not have the cards on the table.