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April 10, 2021 "Exports of goods and services in the Confindustria scenario, after a fall of about 14% in 2020, will rise by more than 11% in 2021 and 7% in 2022. The international market continues to provide significant momentum the recovery of European areas and the competitiveness of Italian goods. Sales of goods abroad, after a fall of about 10% in 2020, are expected to fully recover in 2021 with a rebound and further growth of about 5% in 2022 . The decline in Italy in 2020 was larger than that of world trade, around -5.3%, because it was supported by the good dynamics of trade in Southeast Asia where Italy is not very present ".

This was stated by the President of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi at the opening of the presentation of the forecast report of the Confindustria Study Center "Unleashing the Italian potential. Reforms, businesses and work for a sustainable relaunch".

The President of Confindustria then added: "This is not only true for Italy, but also for the other exporters of European goods: France -15%, Spain -10%, Germany -8%. On the contrary in 2021 Italian exports are destined to rise more than world trade, also thanks to a rebalancing of growth in favor of Europe and the United States ". 



Bonomi continued: "At the end of the two-year period envisaged, Italy will return close to the world dynamic in line with the medium and long-term trend. At the end of 2022, the full recovery of the Italian economy will lead to the closing of the gap generated by the pandemic crisis. In the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP will be 0.3% lower than at the end of 2019, but other European countries such as Germany will recover earlier, already at the end of 2021 ".


#RapportoConfindustria |

At the end of 2022, the economy should fill the chasm opened in 2020 by the pandemic with a gradual recovery of GDP, concentrated in the second half of this year, reaching + 4.1% in 2021 and + 4.2% in 2022 # April 10 pic.twitter.com/5sxj4WdA1N

- Confindustria (@Confindustria) April 10, 2021


"Investing in competence and objectives for the future"

"There are 4 unknowns on the European economic recovery and two are significantly dependent on the political choices of the Union and the European States: the speed of the vaccination plan and the effective and rapid implementation of the Next Generation Eu and some crucial financial policy choices such as the extension of bank loans to businesses and the reconsideration of the sustainability criteria of the same. All these things depend on European decisions and can revive consumption, tourism and public and private investments. The other unknown that is emerging is that of high costs and the scarce availability of raw materials and semi-finished products requires medium and long-term choices for the commercial and industrial policy of the European Union "explains Bonomi.



The report we present today addresses all four unknowns with analysis and scenario-based situations for some of them. Shifting their gaze to the future, the jobs and jobs they have held today in industry, while paying duty in closures, especially in services, will require a commitment to planning and investment in skills. The report tries to illustrate that only a glance towards the future and a re-composition of public and private spending in the direction of new skills and ambitious goals will be able to respond to the changes underway "he concluded.



" Tourism: a negative year, a strong relaunch policy is needed "

"The developments in recent months have seen the two poles of the world economy, the United States and Asia, resume their pre-Covid path, Continental Europe is lagging behind and the Mediterranean countries have a greater risk of not quickly resuming their previous growth path . The second wave of contagions has prompted governments to take new strains to contain the virus that have had more serious effects in the service sector. The manufacturing industry, after driving the rebound of the third quarter of 2020, has better withstood the impact of the second wave of infections. The contraction in Italian GDP stopped at -1.9% in the fourth quarter, while industrial production fell by 0.6% ", the President of Confindustria underlined.



" In services - he continued - the decline in turnover decreased by 2.2%. The most significant drops were recorded in the fashion, mechanical, furniture and other sectors. In particular, tourism has come out of a very negative year and requires the utmost attention on the economic policy front as announced by the Prime Minister Draghi to ensure its stability and revival. The trend is less positive than what was estimated by the Confindustria Study Center in October when a recovery of 4.8% was calculated. The downward revision of about three-quarters of a point is due to the worsening of the health crisis starting from January ".



Covid. Gentiloni:" EU has given a strong and timely response "

" I continue to claim that the EU has given this crisis a strong and timely response ". Thus the EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, speaking at the presentation of the report of the Confindustria Study Center. He then explained:" Economic policies must remain supportive. We cannot go back to our budgetary rules too soon, but we need to make support more and more selective. Better to risk withdrawing the support measures too late than not doing it too soon and this principle is valid for all countries and certainly for Italy. The stop to the Stability Pact is likely to continue in 2022 "." The acceleration of vaccination plans, on which all governments are committed, like the Italian government, is fundamental "for the recovery of the economy" adds Gentiloni.



"This crisis has created strong differences: some sectors have won over and we know what they are, others have recovered easily like manufacturing, others like textiles less well and finally others like services and tourism are in dramatic conditions. there are huge differences and the risk of an accentuated gap between countries and the gap ", stressed the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs.



"We are working in collaboration with the Italian government which is working hard to speed up the presentation of the Plan" also announces the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, regarding the transmission of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan to the European Commission. "In the next few years it will be the time to heal social wounds but also the time for courage, which has never been lacking for Italian companies" concludes Gentiloni. "Post-pandemic growth can be a great opportunity," he added.