In Ukraine, the law on an all-Ukrainian referendum comes into force.
On the eve, on April 10, its text was published by the official newspaper of the Verkhovna Rada "Voice of Ukraine".
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced this initiative to parliament in June 2020, and in January of this year, the Rada approved the bill.
255 parliamentarians expressed their support for him, with the required minimum of 226 votes.
On April 8, 2021, Zelensky signed the document.
According to this law, the initiator of a referendum can be the president or parliament.
In addition, the 15th article of the law provides that representatives of society can initiate a plebiscite if they manage to collect at least three million signatures of Ukrainian citizens who have the right to vote.
At the same time, signatures in support of the referendum must be collected in at least two-thirds of the regions and at least 100 thousand signatures in each of them.
Ukrainians vote at polling stations
globallookpress.com
© Mykola Tys
The law allows the referendum to be held in electronic format, but for this it is necessary to create an appropriate infrastructure.
It will be possible to submit a whole range of topics to the national vote, including the issue of changing the territory.
At the same time, as the portal STRANA.ua notes, during the consideration of the law, the deputies did not accept the amendment stating that the country's territory can only be changed in the direction of its increase.
This point is not specified in the corresponding article of the law itself.
In addition, the law makes it possible to submit to a referendum the question of repealing already adopted laws and initiating new ones, as well as amending the Constitution.
No more than one issue may be put to the vote at a time.
If this or that proposal was supported during the plebiscite, it will be possible to re-vote on the same issue only after three years.
If the initiative was rejected, then it is allowed to re-submit it to a referendum in a year.
At the same time, it is prohibited by law to submit to an all-Ukrainian referendum initiatives that may contradict the Constitution and the norms of international law.
Also, it will not be possible to put to a vote proposals aimed at eliminating the independence of Ukraine, violating its state sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as creating a threat to national security, inciting interethnic, racial, and religious enmity.
In addition, the referendum cannot touch upon issues of budgetary policy, taxes, amnesty and those functions that are attributed to the jurisdiction of law enforcement agencies, the prosecutor's office or the court.
In the event of martial law or a state of emergency in Ukraine or in some of its localities, the conduct of an all-Ukrainian referendum is prohibited.
Voting is considered valid if the turnout is at least half of the voters eligible to vote.
The results of a referendum are binding, not consultative.
Direct Democracy Instrument
It is worth noting that earlier in Ukraine there was no law defining the mechanism for holding an all-Ukrainian or local referendum.
This situation has arisen due to the fact that at the beginning of 2018 the Constitutional Court of the country recognized the law "On the All-Ukrainian Referendum" of 2012 as inconsistent with the main document of the country.
And the initiative that had been in force before him from 1991 became invalid after the approval of the 2012 law.
The adoption of the new referendum law was one of Zelenskiy's main promises during his presidential campaign.
The candidate's program stated that he intends to take this initiative as a matter of priority after taking office.
However, in reality, the fulfillment of this promise was delayed - the president introduced the bill to the Rada only a year after coming to power.
It is noteworthy that by that time Zelensky had already signed a high-profile bill on the turnover of agricultural land, which, according to polls, was opposed by most of the population and the decision on which was proposed to be put to a referendum.
A few months before the adoption of the land law, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology published data according to which 62% of citizens would vote against the bill if a plebiscite was organized on this matter.
Vladimir Zelensky at the inauguration
Reuters
© Vladyslav Musiienko / Ukrainian Governmental Press Service
It is worth noting that even after the approval of the law on the referendum by the Rada, Zelensky was in no hurry to sign it despite the fact that, according to the Constitution, the president must do this within 15 days after receiving the document or return it to parliament for reconsideration.
It took the Ukrainian leader more than two months.
According to political analysts, the law was adopted only two years after Zelensky came to power, as the Kiev authorities feared that the opposition could initiate a referendum on a number of "inconvenient" issues for them, including land reform.
"Rely on the decision of the population"
Another issue that Zelensky has repeatedly promised to put to a referendum is Ukraine's accession to NATO.
However, experts do not expect such a vote to take place in the foreseeable future.
“The main task for which the law was adopted was joining NATO.
However, it is now unlikely that the Ukrainian authorities will decide to put such a question to a referendum, since recent opinion polls indicate that this is not the most popular idea in society.
Even if, according to the results of the referendum, it turns out that the majority of the population is in favor of joining the alliance, it will look unconvincing, "Oleg Nemensky, a leading researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a conversation with RT.
In addition, as experts note, such a vote would not make sense, since even under Petro Poroshenko, at the beginning of 2019, amendments were made to the Constitution to consolidate Ukraine's course towards joining the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU.
In addition, the Kiev authorities are actively taking steps to join the alliance even without any referendum, in particular, seeking to obtain an action plan for membership in the bloc.
NATO military on exercises in Ukraine
globallookpress.com
© US Army
According to polls, there is no consensus in Ukrainian society about membership in the alliance.
In 2020, the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, together with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, conducted a study.
According to its results, only 42% of Ukrainians support Ukraine's entry into NATO.
The non-aligned status is supported by 34% of the respondents.
Another 11% of Ukrainians are in favor of a military alliance with the Russian Federation.
According to a RT source in the President's Office, the Kiev authorities can use a hypothetical vote on NATO as a lever of pressure in negotiations with the EU and the United States.
“This is one of the instruments of influence on Western partners.
For example, Ukrainian citizens may express unwillingness to join NATO or implement any other decisions.
In this case, Vladimir Zelensky does not bear any responsibility: he can always remind Europeans and Americans that he must take into account the opinion of the people, ”the source says.
Boris Mezhuev, associate professor of the Faculty of Philosophy at Moscow State University, adheres to a similar position.
At the same time, he noted that Zelensky may try to use the NATO issue to put pressure on Russia.
“He needs to rely on the decision of the population, which, with the help of a referendum, would demonstrate a desire to join NATO, an orientation toward joining Euro-Atlantic military structures.
Zelenskiy wants to put pressure on the Russian side in this process, because he knows that a change in Ukraine's neutral status is unacceptable for Russia.
In addition, in this way, Zelensky is trying to prevent the West from refusing to include Ukraine in NATO, "Mezhuev emphasized in an interview with RT.
At the same time, analysts believe that Kiev is unlikely to hand over into the hands of the people the right to resolve such a fundamental issue as joining NATO.
So, Boris Mezhuev believes that the current Kiev regime is not capable of holding an honest referendum on this issue, since most of Ukraine's residents may speak out against joining the alliance, which will be a verdict on the entire political course launched by Ukraine after the “Euromaidan”.
The same applies to other sensitive topics for Kiev, for example, the law on the land market.
“It can be expected that the hypothetical referendum will be held unfairly, it will not reflect the real distribution of forces,” concluded Mezhuev.