Ankara will remain under the European "focus" until next June
Several factors dictate the tendency of European-Turkish relations to calm down
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, upon his meeting with President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Lien, in Ankara to negotiate ways to solve the outstanding problems between the two sides.
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A group of Syrian refugees crossing the Evros River on the border between Turkey and Greece.
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The meeting of European Union leaders on March 25 came out with a number of decisions on how to deal with Turkey in the coming period, based on the "dual track" approach that was discussed in the October and December 2020 meetings, and was reflected in the report, "The status of political, economic and commercial relations between Turkey." The European Union »prepared by the Vice President of the European Commission, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, and included the following:
1 Punitive Tools
The Union called on Turkey to refrain from renewing provocations in the eastern Mediterranean, warning that if Ankara chooses otherwise, the bloc will use the tools and options available to it to preserve its interests and those of its members, and preserve the stability of the region, provided that Ankara is placed under the European "microscope" until The next leaders meeting next June.
2 economic incentives
European leaders indicated that the European Union is ready to deepen economic cooperation with Turkey, through increasing intra-trade, discussing the modernization of the Turkish customs union (it has been in operation since 1995), in addition to cooperation in other areas such as public health and the freedom of movement of people between Turkey and the countries of the Union. Climate and counterterrorism.
3 Enhancing cooperation in the field of illegal immigration
The European Commission was mandated to present a proposal for a financial framework that would allow a continuous offer of financial aid from the European Union to Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, while intensifying cooperation in curbing illegal immigration.
Ankara's position
It was remarkable that no sharp Turkish positions were issued towards European Union decisions, unlike what had happened in recent years, in a clear indication that the former accepts the formula adopted by the Union, as part of the new policy aimed at reducing tension with the outside world.
In this regard, it is noteworthy that a statement was issued by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to European decisions, focusing on the following determinants:
1 Attacking the "opponents of Turkey" in the union
The importance of the European Union’s leaders not complying with some countries whose relations with Turkey are characterized by tension, especially France (no specific countries were mentioned) were indicated, and this was reflected in the statement in which it stated that “Relations between Turkey and the European Union (contained in the Josep report) Borrell) has been approached and formulated from a one-sided view, influenced by the narrow-minded allegations of a number of member states.
2 Focus on strategic relationships
The statement stressed the importance of developing Turkey's relations with the European bloc on the basis of cooperation and mutual interests, in light of European membership, and Ankara hopes that linking the steps to reducing tension and opening dialogue channels will not lead to the circumstances mentioned in the summit statement, or to address only certain areas, which indicates Turkey rejects the EU’s interference in its internal affairs with regard to the fields of human rights and democracy, as well as criticizing its presence in a number of regional files (whether in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, or the Caucasus), a message aimed at directing the Union not to rely on these files for separation. In the form of relations between the two sides.
3 Continue external interventions
The statement indicated that «Ankara will continue its efforts to resolve regional crises such as Libya, Syria and the South Caucasus», and in this regard pointed out the possibility of cooperation with the European Union in such files, which will contribute to the promotion of regional peace and stability, allegations that do not correspond to the data found on The ground indicating that Ankara's interventions were a major reason for fueling these crises and impeding efforts to settle them.
Several variants
In the context of assessing the above, it is possible to refer to the most important changes that may govern relations between Turkey and the European Union during the coming period, as follows:
1 push toward calm
It is evident from the trends of the European Union and Turkey that they seek calm and rely on the pattern of cooperation rather than conflict, which was referred to in the Turkish statement as the "positive agenda", which includes cooperation in many areas, not just economic ones, due to multiple considerations related to the historical relations between the two sides, And the importance of Turkey to the economies of the Union countries, as well as strategic considerations related to combating terrorism and illegal immigration, in addition to the fact that Ankara is an emerging country in the fields of transport of all kinds (goods - energy ..), whether by land or sea, which strengthens the supply chains to Europe, especially since the alternative It is the exertion of pressure from both sides that, according to the allegations of trends in Ankara, will not result in a tangible change in Turkey's policies.
2 De-escalation
The statement of the summit of the leaders of the European Union reflects the avoidance of some phrases such as the word "sanctions", where another formula was used, which is "the tools and options available to preserve its interests and the interests of its members," which highlights the tendency of the two parties to reduce the tone of tension between them, in order to avoid a media escalation and contain the adoption Any populist rhetoric affecting relations between Turkey and the Union, with the exception of any escalation in bilateral relations, especially with France.
3 The thorny files are not resolved
Especially the conflict with Cyprus and Greece, where it is likely that Ankara will seek to prolong the period of negotiations with them as much as possible, without reaching final solutions to end the conflict between them, and in this context it is referred to Turkey's call for the European Union to activate its role as a partner in some regional files, which it hopes for. Ankara turned a blind eye to the European side of its moves in these files, or not linked it to the level of relations between the two parties, which in turn will lead to the failure to resolve any of these files.
This is in parallel with the attempt to give priority to mutual interests in some files, as they represent the main incentive for the continuation of positive relations and the reduction of tension, and therefore it is not ruled out that the importance of the controversial files in the list of priorities of the Union and Turkey relations will decline further during the coming period.
US support 4
Given the relations of the United States and Turkey during the recent period, and the positive signs between the two sides, including the contact between the defense ministers of the two countries, the meeting with their foreign ministers, and the American emphasis on the importance of Turkey's presence in NATO, this will have a tangible impact on European-Turkish relations, especially as Washington and Brussels are seeking to restore their traditional alliance, after relations between them were affected during the era of former President Donald Trump.
Calming path
Many indicators reveal that the European Union and Turkey will adopt the path of calm during the coming period, by giving priority to the language of interests to face the challenges resulting from global developments, but this depends on Turkey's acceptance of European conditions, and the European partner's tendency to turn a blind eye to some of the files that it interferes in. Ankara, in order to overcome any disagreement that arises between them, but this does not mean the end of the conflict between the two parties in some files, but rather that the calm path will put a ceiling for any possible escalation between them, especially with the presence of a new variable which is strengthening the paths of the American-European movement towards some vital files, This pushes Ankara to become close to that alliance instead of being hostile to it.
The European Commission was mandated to present a proposal for a financial framework that would allow a continuous offer of financial aid from the European Union to Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, while intensifying cooperation in curbing illegal immigration.
It was remarkable that no sharp Turkish positions were issued towards European Union decisions, unlike what had happened in recent years, in a clear indication that the former accepts the formula adopted by the Union, as part of the new policy aimed at reducing tension with the outside world.
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