Late spring and summer are becoming quite commonplace.
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has published its forecasts for May-July.
The average temperature for the period looks broadly normal in Finland, Foreca meteorologist Joanna Rinne interprets the forecast in her blog.
It may be slightly warmer than usual in southern Finland and on the southwest coast.
The deviation is predicted to be 0-0.5 degrees warmer than average.
- The possible thermal deviation is due to the fact that the Baltic Sea in the southern and south-western part of Finland is forecast to have a three-month average temperature of 0.5–1 degrees warmer than the seasonal average.
The relatively warm sea also warms the air above it, Rinne explains.
The warming effect of the sea is more likely to be seen and felt in summer at night temperatures than at daytime temperatures.
According to the forecast, May – July will be slightly wetter than usual in the southern and central part of the country.
Rainfall is 0-50 miles higher than the seasonal average.
Average rainfall is widely forecast for the northern part of the country.
Joanna Rinne reminds that the seasonal forecast does not take a position on how the forecast materializes.
The forecast does not tell how the deviation from the averages will occur over a three-month period.
The forecast does not take a position on individual days, weeks or months.
The variation can be large.
- The three-month average temperature can remain at the average level, on the one hand, so that the daily temperatures remain close to the averages throughout the period - or with the same number of periods that are clearly colder and warmer than the average.
- The three-month period of power can perfectly accommodate several weeks of heat, cool periods, high pressures, low pressures, rain and sun.
The medium-term forecast also does not show what kind of rainfall is coming to the southern and central part of the country.
It is possible that there is a short, very rainy period in the summer.
Otherwise, it is quite normal weather.
Another option is to rain evenly over three months.