For Russian President Vladimir Putin, warfare seems to be a normal political tool.
This he has shown both at the borders of his country and far from them.
Thus, concerns about Russia's troops moving along the Ukrainian border should not be underestimated.
For seven years now, Russia has kept the occupied Crimea as its own.
The rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine are also virtually under Kremlin command.
There is no reason to doubt that Putin would be prepared to issue new deadly orders if he deems it necessary.
Still, the situation is astonishing.
What has made Russia distress its neighbor right now?
One possibility is simply that the increase in fighting on the Eastern Ukrainian front will make Russia nervous.
Even broader plans are possible.
Volodomyr Zelenskyi was elected President of Ukraine in his second year.
Before that, he was best known as a TV comedian.
Zelenskyi appealed to voters by promising years of peaceful end to the conflict.
The leaking wound in eastern Ukraine is a disaster for a poor country.
The front eats money and kills soldiers.
However, Zelenskyi has not made progress with Russia.
The demands of superpower may be too great for any Ukrainian president to approve.
The stalemate continues.
In recent days, Zelenskyi has appealed to Western leaders for support.
It has been insured from both the United States and the EU.
What this would mean in practice is another matter.
Zelenskyi has appealed to NATO leaders to facilitate his country’s path to membership in the organization.
Russia does not want this at all.
It may not play its cards right when it annoys Ukraine.
The great danger is that Russia will resort to increasingly tough measures to cut Ukraine's way to the west.
That was the original reason for Russia's involvement in Ukrainian affairs in 2014.
A full war between Ukraine and Russia is still unlikely.
It is possible.
For Europe, this would be a disaster.
Refugee flows would set in motion.
NATO forces would certainly move east, but how far?
Conversations between the West and Russia would be severed.
This would be relevant to the big game that the United States and China are playing about world power.
Russia would drift more and more into China.
Finland's position as an EU member next to Russia would suddenly become a nuisance.
The crisis would hit us too, when the fight with the pandemic is under way.
The spring of Europe is darkened by warlike clouds.
It is best for everyone that the thunder does not break out.