• IMF: "Italy needs a credible plan to reduce debt when recovery is consolidated"

  • IMF cuts Italy's GDP estimates: in 2021 only + 3%.

    As in the Great Depression, 22 trillion billion burned

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06 April 2021 The IMF revises its growth estimates for Italy for 2021 upwards. After a contraction of 8.9% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow this year by 4.2%, or 1.2 points percentages higher than the January forecasts.

Compared to the estimate of 5.2% in October 2020, growth is instead one percentage point lower.

For 2022, the Fund expects GDP to increase by 3.6%, unchanged compared to January but one percentage point more than in October 2020.



The Italian public debt

it is expected to rise to 157.1% of GDP in 2021 from 155.6% in 2020. The IMF predicts this by improving its estimate compared to October 2020, when it had forecast a debt of 158.3% for this year.

For 2022, the debt is estimated at 155.5% (151.0% in 2026).

The deficit is expected to drop from 9.5% in 2020 to 8.8% this year, and then drop to 5.5% next time.



The IMF improves

unemployment estimates

in Italy for 2021 and 2022. This year the unemployment rate is expected to reach 10.3% compared to 11.8% forecast in October 2020. Next year the rate is expected to rise to 11.6%.

In Europe, only Spain and Greece do worse than Italy, while the euro area average is 8.7% unemployment in 2021 and 8.5% in 2022.



The world economy is

running more than expected, with world GDP expected to grow by 6.0% this year, or 0.5 percentage points more than in January and 0.8 percentage points more than October 2020. The IMF predicts this, estimating growth at the next year. 4.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points compared to both January and October.

However, the Fund warns: "There is great uncertainty about the estimates" and even if growth accelerates "the future presents difficult challenges".

"The pandemic is not yet defeated and cases are accelerating in various countries. The recovery is at different speeds."



"At the international level, countries must work together to ensure

universal vaccination,

" says IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, stressing that accelerating vaccination requires an increase in production and distribution, avoid export controls, and finance Covax. and ensure a fair transfer of excess doses.



The American economic recovery

accelerates with the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan launched by the Joe Biden administration, which drives the world economy.

American GDP is expected to grow by 6.4% this year, or 1.3 percentage points on the January estimates, and by 3.5% in 2022 (+1.0 points).

Euroland, on the

other hand, will grow by 4.4% in 2021 (+0.2 points) and by 3.8% next year (+0.2).



Against this backdrop,

Germany's

GDP

is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022, up 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points respectively on January estimates.

This is what the IMF predicts, which also revises growth in

France

upwards

to 5.8% this year and 4.2% in 2022.

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