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Brussels / Ankara (dpa) - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel travel to Ankara this Tuesday.

They want to sound out the possibilities for expanding relations with Turkey - although the country has recently seen blatant setbacks in terms of the rule of law, fundamental rights and freedom of expression.

The visit of the EU leaders to the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a diplomatic tightrope act.

Can he succeed?

Why is the EU considering expanding relations despite developments in Turkey?

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Ultimately, the point is that the EU wants to avert further escalation of conflicts with Turkey.

If this does not succeed, the EU fears that the government in Ankara will stop cooperation on migration policy and encourage the several million refugees from Syria in the country to continue their journey to the EU.

In addition, there is great concern that the sea area dispute between the EU countries Greece and Cyprus and Turkey could escalate again.

It had come to a dangerous point in the past year because of Turkish gas explorations in disputed areas.

In Greece people even feared a new war.

Cyprus has been divided since a Greek coup and Turkish military intervention in 1974.

The island republic is a member of the EU.

Are the EU's attempts at rapprochement made without anything in return?

In order to defuse the conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, the EU gave Turkey a choice last year under the motto “carrot and stick”.

It read: If you show willingness to resolve the disputes through dialogue and in accordance with international law, we can talk about a "positive agenda" in areas such as economy and trade - if not, new sanctions will be issued.

Turkey responded by showing willingness to talk and stopping the search for natural gas in disputed sea areas.

In terms of domestic policy, however, Ankara has not made any concessions so far.

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What do critics say about building relationships?

The human rights organization Human Rights Watch is clear in its assessment and writes: "The bolder Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes, the calmer the European Union will be."

It should urgently review its approach and link visible progress on human rights issues to the start of talks on a customs union.

A “positive agenda” that violates EU values ​​is not positive.

Mithat Sancar, co-leader of the second largest opposition party, HDP, is also calling for the EU to take Erdogan to a harder court.

The HDP is threatened with a ban.

In which areas is closer cooperation between the EU and Turkey conceivable?

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The government in Ankara wants an expansion of the customs union with the EU and calls for an abolition of the visa requirement for Turks when traveling to the EU as well as more EU support for the care of Syria refugees.

The EU is now open to talks on all three points.

At the EU summit on March 25, it was agreed to begin preparations for negotiations on the expansion of the customs union.

In addition, the EU Commission was asked to examine how cooperation with Turkey can be strengthened "in relation to contacts between people and mobility."

A «proposal for the further provision of funds for Syrian refugees in Turkey» is also to be drawn up.

In the EU, too, there is economic interest in expanding the customs union.

For example, it could boost trade in the agricultural and service sectors.

What is the probability that concrete results will be achieved quickly?

Further EU funds for the care of refugees could be quickly mobilized.

Everything else is likely to take time - especially since the commitments are tied to ongoing de-escalation and willingness to engage in dialogue.

Cyprus could also insist that Turkey agree to a settlement of the conflict over the partition of the island and officially recognize Cyprus before any far-reaching decisions are made.

For domestic political reasons, France is unlikely to give the green light for visa easing for Turks before the presidential election next year.

Due to ongoing setbacks in the rule of law, fundamental rights and freedom of expression, the EU decided in 2018 not to talk to Turkey about expanding the customs union for the time being.

Are the current developments a victory for Erdogan?

This should only be clear in a few months, when it comes to the final decision on whether to start negotiations with Turkey.

The EU summit declaration stated that the rule of law and fundamental rights dialogue will remain an integral part of EU-Turkey relations.

The attacks on political parties and the media, as well as other recent decisions, represent major setbacks for human rights and conflict with Turkey's obligations to respect democracy, the rule of law and women's rights.

Can we hope that the EU will make a difference through dialogue?

That Erdogan, for example, withdraws the decision to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention for the Protection of Women from Violence?

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Observers are skeptical about this.

The EU has made it clear that the internal political situation is no longer the guiding principle for action, but the foreign policy, says Günter Seufert, head of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies (CATS) in Berlin.

"There is therefore no reason for Erdogan to be considerate of the EU."

© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210406-99-96226 / 2

Tweet about a visit to Turkey (March 29, 2021)

Declaration by the members of the European Council, 25 March 2021

Human Rights Watch statement

Agenda of the EU Council President with appointments in Ankara