Concerned tracks that do not lead to a resolution of matters on any of the inflammatory fronts

The time has come to "de-militarize terrorism" in Africa

• A vehicle belonging to the United Nations forces operating in Mali, where the hand of terror is still long.

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• Soldiers of the Italian contingent operating in Somalia stand at a site where one of their convoys was attacked in Mogadishu.

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The latest indicator of the severity of terrorism in the world reveals an escalation of violence in hotspots of terrorism in Africa, as well as an increased risk of terrorist attacks in many countries across the region, including some that were previously considered relatively safe.

Today, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to seven of the 10 most dangerous sites in the world, based on data collected on 198 countries, making it the worst-performing region in the fight against terrorism in the world.

These data also indicate that the expansion and effectiveness of terrorist groups in Africa is increasing.

The last quarter of last year - despite the "Covid-19" pandemic - witnessed a 13% increase in terrorist incidents across the continent, compared to the previous period.

There is no doubt that the course of these trends is a major cause for concern about the efficacy of counterterrorism strategies at the various national, regional and international levels.

Perhaps the most prominent example of terrorist expansion in the depths of Africa and the creation of new hotbeds of flame, the United States on March 11, 2021, put the Ugandan armed group, known as the "Allied Democratic Forces," which has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the mid-1990s, on the list of terrorist groups Associated with ISIS.

Demilitarization demands

According to a recent Pentagon report prepared by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a research institution affiliated with the US Department of Defense, the security situation on the continent is a cause for serious concern, as it shows a 43% increase in the operations of militant armed groups, and a sharp increase in violent incidents during the year 2020. This confirms the trend of continuous escalation over the past decade.

For nearly two decades, US Special Operations forces have fought a - for the most part - covert war across the African continent, cooperating with local allies against a large number of violent terrorist groups.

Accordingly, many experts have questioned the basic premise of US counterterrorism efforts on the African continent, as the funds allocated to American commandos in Africa have been requested to be spent more effectively in the areas of humanitarian aid and economic development in countries where the threat of extremist violence is increasing.

The increase in rates of violent terrorist extremism on the continent indicates, beyond any doubt, that the US Special Operations Command in Africa has made no progress in weakening the structure of terrorist groups and limiting their violent activities.

The "Pentagon" report indicates a number of startling results on terrorist groups across the African continent.

These groups include the terrorist organization "ISIS" in Libya, Algeria and Nigeria, and the groups loyal to it in Tunisia, Morocco, Somalia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Africa, and the countries of the Sahel, as well as the "Al Qaeda" organization in the countries of the Maghreb, and the "youth movement" in East Africa.

The documents confirm that the goal of the Special Forces Command in Africa was to disrupt and limit the movement of "Al Qaeda" and violent extremist organizations affiliated with "ISIS" in East Africa, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, and the Maghreb, through cooperation with African and Western partners.

Nevertheless, the report found that terrorist groups have not undermined their capabilities and disrupted them over the past two years. Rather, what has happened is the exact opposite.

The number of victims of these armed groups has increased by a third compared to the previous year, and areas of concern for a chief of US commando forces such as Somalia, the Sahel region, and the Lake Chad Basin have seen some of the most violent increases in the continent.

Despite ground operations by US Special Forces and Somali partners, in addition to more than 200 air strikes since 2017, Al-Shabaab remains the largest, most active and effective network of Al Qaeda in the world.

This was evident in the 33% increase in violent activities in which Al-Shabaab was involved in the past year, in addition to the 47% increase in the battles fought by youth and security forces in 2020.

"Teams" to combat terrorism

On February 16, 2021, the G5 Sahel summit (which includes Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad) was held, with the participation of the French President, Emmanuel Macron, by default.

This summit may represent a major turning point in France’s strategy to combat terrorism in the Sahel.

After more than eight years of military intervention, France finds itself in the same American predicament in Afghanistan.

This may push it to reduce its military presence in the region, while focusing - in return - on the role of local and international allies.

French public support for Operation Barkhane has never declined to the same extent as it is today.

An opinion poll, conducted by the French Institute for Public Opinion in early January 2021, showed that 51% of the French lost their support for the military intervention in the Sahel region.

This means that the French government faces the lowest level of popular support since it launched its campaign in the Sahel eight years ago.

This public concern was clearly expressed when the National Assembly and Senate called for further discussion on the future of the French role in the Sahel region.

The interesting thing is that this French shift towards gradual withdrawal comes in the wake of the deployment of 600 additional French soldiers in the Sahel region, bringing the number of Barkhane force to 5100. This is in implementation of the decisions of the January 2020 summit in Pau, France.

During this past year, France lost 12 additional soldiers (bringing its total casualties to 57 since the beginning of its intervention in January 2013) in a war that - from the point of view of its citizens - appears to never end.

In essence, this new French approach reflects a move towards the "teams" of the conflict and methods of confronting it in the Sahel.

France wishes the Sahel countries to enhance their economic, social and political approaches to address the roots of violent extremism.

To achieve this, the Sahel states must be able to regain full control of their territories and achieve political stability.

There is no doubt that this goal represents the core of the problem of extremism and terrorism in the region, as the state in the Sahel suffers from general fragility and weakness.

To complicate matters further, a large part of the Sahel residents who are supposed to be beneficiaries of the international campaign to combat terrorism led by France view the French military presence as a form of neo-colonial occupation.

This may not be the opinion of the popular majority, but it is usually amplified by widespread media coverage and repeated protests, especially in Mali, where the French presence is more visible.

Ethnic violence escalated

Counterterrorism policies in the face of violent armed groups have given rise to indigenous ethnic militias.

As a result, sectarian and ethnic tensions exacerbated, particularly near the border triangle between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

It is well known that these three countries are facing the spread of deadly extremist violence by "ISIS" and "Al Qaeda", which has claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands, despite the presence of regional and international forces.

In January 2021, at least 100 people were killed in two villages in Niger, in the midst of the country's presidential elections.

The same was repeated in March 2021 after the announcement of Mohamed Bazoum's victory as president, when gunmen on motorbikes attacked a series of villages near Niger's troubled border with Mali, killing at least 137 people in the most violent attacks in memory. Modern.

There is no doubt that these disastrous results of counterterrorism approaches in African reality have made there almost general agreement that Western counter-terrorism policy in the Sahel region depends on excessive militarization, and that it was characterized by ineffectiveness.

Accordingly, everyone, including the United States and France, suggests, albeit in slightly different language, that this policy should be "rebalanced" or "reconsidered", to emphasize governance issues and political solutions, including "negotiating with terrorists."

Securitization approach

It seems likely that practical practice still confirms the trend of securitization in the face of terrorism, as the institutions investing in military solutions have a much greater impact due to their bureaucratic weight and popular assumptions, such as those saying that military success and the defeat of terrorists must come first.

The interest in the realities of national governments and the context of local societies comes on a seasonal basis, and is not a priority in the internationally supported counterterrorism doctrine.

However, the experience of past years indicates that there are strong incentives for policymakers to abandon militarism not only because it is ineffective, but because it often leads to more violence.

• According to a recent report by the "Pentagon" prepared by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the security situation on the continent calls for serious concern, as it shows a 43% increase in the operations of militant armed groups, and a sharp increase in violent incidents during the year 2020.

• Counterterrorism policies in the face of violent armed groups have led to the emergence of local ethnic militias, and as a result sectarian and ethnic tensions have exacerbated, especially near the border triangle between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

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