Oxfam-Emergency: Variants could render vaccines ineffective in less than a year

• Covid vaccines.

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March 30, 2021 Without a

mass vaccination

campaign

globally

, in a short time the variants of Covid19 are destined to take over, greatly extending the time needed to defeat the pandemic and dramatically increasing the number of infections and victims.

This is revealed by a new survey - carried out by the People's Vaccine Alliance (PVA) of which Oxfam and Emergency are members - according to which two thirds of the 77 epidemiologists interviewed from 28 different countries warn that we have a maximum of one year to avoid nullifying the effectiveness of the first generation vaccines developed to date and contain the mutations of the virus; a third believes that the time is less than 9 months; only fewer than 1 in 8 estimate that the available vaccines will work whatever the mutation.

The overwhelming majority of epidemiologists, 88%, also think that

vaccine-resistant variants of the virus could arise

in many countries if vaccination coverage is not increased

.

Suspend patents to increase production

According to the PVA's calculations, at the current rate only 10% of the population in most developing countries will be vaccinated in the next year. Nearly three-quarters of the experts involved believe that technology sharing and the suspension of intellectual property are the tools to increase world dose production. “As long as only a part of the world population has access to vaccines, the virus will have the possibility to circulate, to replicate quickly and therefore to mutate. The data we have today suggests that we don't have much time, probably between 9 months and a year, before mutations in the virus develop and spread that reduce the effectiveness of currently available vaccines. This is

a war that rich countries cannot win alone

”, explains Antonino Di Caro, virologist at the Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Rome.

Guaranteeing vaccines for poorer countries

The survey shows how crucial it is to guarantee access to Covid vaccines as soon as possible even in the poorest countries, given that the current inequality of access only gives the virus variants time to multiply . "Although it is now clear that only the sharing of technology and the suspension of intellectual property can guarantee an increase in available doses - said Sara Albiani, global health manager of Oxfam Italia, and Rossella Miccio, president of Emergency -

we still witness the defense of Big Pharma monopolies

by rich countries, resulting in a handful of pharmaceutical giants deciding who should live or die.

At the very beginning of March we saw the blocking of the proposal put forward by India and South Africa to suspend intellectual property rights. Right now the millions of people who have already been vaccinated in the US, UK or European countries feel safer, but as the results of the survey presented today show, there is a very high risk that without a radical change in vaccine access policies, all efforts made so far could be in vain.

Making vaccines accessible even in poor countries means today more than ever to protect us all

”.

Put pressure on the pharmaceutical giants

"We welcome the intention of organizing a mass vaccination campaign in a short time in Italy, announced yesterday by the emergency commissioner Francesco Figliuolo, following the example of the efforts being put in place in Liguria. But even if Italy, together with the EU, does not fully commit to a change of approach on the causes that are determining the lack of doses, every effort for the next few months is likely to be in vain ", Albiani and Miccio add." this

is crucial now to put pressure on the pharmaceutical giants to give up their intellectual property rights

on vaccines. If we were at war with a country called Covid, would governments leave vital decisions on production, supply and price in the hands of arms companies? Since vaccines are the best weapon we have against the pandemic, how long can world leaders still wait to make political decisions that reverse the trend and enable all companies capable of producing vaccines to participate in the effort to win this battle ? ".

Months to approve a possible 2nd generation

vaccine Current vaccines appear to be at least partially effective against the main variants, but if a second generation is needed it will take months before approval and effective use are reached. In the meantime, closures and travel bans will be the only form of prevention to avoid new infections and deaths. But the paradox - Oxfam and Emergency warn - is that at this rate even the second generation vaccines being studied to combat the variants of the virus could be subject to the monopoly regime guaranteed to the pharmaceutical industry, so once again we could face shortages. of production and inequality in access.

A vicious circle that will only end by making vaccines a global public good

. Hence the urgent appeal to the governments of rich countries for a genuine change of course, starting with the talks to be held at the next meeting of the World Trade Organization, scheduled for April. PVA also reiterates its request to governments and pharmaceutical companies to share technology and vaccine development plans through the WHO Covid Technology Access Pool (CTAP).