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Göttingen (dpa) - With comparatively low case numbers and vaccination progress, according to calculations by Göttingen researchers, clearer opening steps could be possible from June onwards.
Then "moderate measures" such as hygiene rules and the renouncement of larger events would be sufficient, said Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization.
It relates to a seven-day incidence “well below 50”, so that health authorities can still follow up contacts well and in good time.
"If the number of cases was high, we wouldn't be ready until late summer," said the physicist.
The prognosis would change if a mutated variant of the coronavirus emerged that is largely insensitive to the vaccination.
"That would set us back a few weeks or months," said Priesemann.
In their model calculations, the Göttingen researchers assumed that there is no so-called escape variant.
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"It is an illusion to think that we will now open earlier and only have a little more cases," explained Priesemann.
Unfortunately, the vaccination of those over 80 is not enough to relieve the intensive care units sufficiently.
Every younger person has only one percent or less risk of having to go to the intensive care unit.
"The problem is simply the sheer number."
In addition, there are several aspects to consider: Even with a vaccination, severe disease courses are possible.
Not everyone accepts a vaccination offer.
Children would not be vaccinated and could act as a kind of reservoir for viruses and infect other people, Priesemann listed examples.
"The vaccination is not perfect."
With a view to autumn, it is unclear whether immunity will decrease over time after a vaccination.
There are initial indications of this, said Priesemann.
In addition, the weather then changes again and could favor the spread of the virus.
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© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210330-99-30841 / 2
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