About a week after the giant Panamanian container tanker "Ever Given" was stranded in the Suez Canal, the Canal Authority announced today, Monday, that the ship will be floated again, and traffic has resumed in the shipping channel that has been suspended since last Tuesday.
About 12% of the volume of global trade passes through the Suez Canal, in addition to what represents 10% of the volume of oil trade across the seas globally, and the delinquency of the tanker and the failure of efforts to float it for days caused the increasing disruption of the international economy, which is actually affected by the repercussions of the Corona pandemic that entered its third wave.
Egypt has also lost between 13 and 14 million dollars from the daily revenues of the canal since the suspension of navigation, according to what the head of the canal authority, Osama Rabie, announced in a press conference on Saturday, while it is still unclear the size of the losses due to the ship stranding for six consecutive days and causing the disruption of navigation. .
The closure of the canal prompted shipping companies to change their course to the Cape of Good Hope. The global shipping group Maersk said in a statement Monday that the status of the Panamanian ship resulted in disruptions in global shipping activity, which may take several months to disappear.
There is a list of close to 400 ships waiting to cross the Suez Canal with the resumption of the delinquent container ship that was blocking the shipping course, at a time when the head of the authority confirmed Monday that work will continue to end the passage of these ships amid expectations that this will continue for a few days.
Plan c
Egypt was relying on 3 scenarios and plans to deal with the crisis, the first of which is "tightening the tanker using locomotives," and the second is "dredging", meaning drilling in the vicinity of the bow of the ship, and both were used at the same time with the aim of shortening the mission time, according to the head of the authority.
In the two previous scenarios, Egypt relied on locomotives and dredgers, assisted by Smit Salvage, a Dutch company specializing in rescue operations for stricken ships, in addition to an Italian company that arrived this morning and will participate in the last stage of the float.
Rabei had revealed that his country would resort to plan "c", or the third scenario, in case of failure of "hauling and dredging", which it did not want to reach and is based on reducing the tanker load.
With the growing local and international concerns, and regional and global corridors projects that are alternative to the Egyptian shipping route, questions have been raised about the reasons for hesitation in seeking assistance or resorting to Plan C, which Egypt announced its adoption in the event of failure of the self-efforts to the crisis that is approaching its first week.
Experts attributed Egypt’s failure to resort to Plan C, concerned with unloading the tanker’s cargo, and its repercussions of requesting international assistance to compensate for the lack of local capabilities, to several reasons related to “confusion over bearing the costs of an unprecedented crisis, the Egyptian position regarding national dignity and influence, and the lack of seriousness of some Offers, making progress in the exerted efforts, and finally moving away from internationalizing a crisis that may be deducted from the system’s balance in front of the people. "
It is worth noting that the Dutch company, which is believed to have carried out a major part of the rescue efforts, does not fall within the scope of international aid, as the costs of its work are borne by the ship-owning company.
The Suez Canal Authority has previously stated that the company that owns the ship initiated the contract with the Dutch company, and coordinated with the authority to join its team during the two days following the accident.
Offers, welcome and hesitation
Although Cairo welcomed offers of international assistance, most notably from Washington, Moscow and Ankara, to resolve the crisis, it hesitated to accept it, although two days ago it began preparing for a scenario to reduce the tanker's container load of about 224,000 tons, in order to be able to complete its journey that began from China to the Netherlands.
Lieutenant General Rabie said, "Egypt will seek (international) assistance if it decides to adopt the third scenario (unloading the containers) if the efforts (pulling and dredging) fail," while stressing the readiness for this scenario by bringing in the necessary equipment.
Observers have questioned the seriousness of these offers, although experiences in previous incidents indicate that they have a cost to the host country, even if it came as a form of free assistance and cooperation, in terms of providing hosting, fuel, insurance and others.
It won't offer much
The economic expert, Abd al-Nabi Abdul-Muttalib explained that every hour of delay in the speedy end of the Suez Canal problem causes an increase in problems for global markets, and therefore he considers that international efforts represent an international duty to reduce the losses of the global economy.
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, he stressed that the efforts exerted, whether by the canal mechanisms or the equipment of the Dutch company, were making great progress in the past two days, and therefore it was believed that international assistance would not provide more than what has been done.
With regard to the repercussions of the crisis and its expected losses, Abdul Muttalib stressed that it is difficult to imagine the matter now, explaining that it will depend on the period it takes to restore normalcy to the canal.
He also played down the importance of talking about the rise in opportunities for alternative waterways, saying that they raise the costs of transportation, shipping and unloading, but they do exist, and global investment knows where, when and how to direct its investments, stressing that the economy is the one that controls politics and not the other way around.
International pressure
In turn, Adel Duban, an academic in energy exploration, said that Egypt did not hesitate to accept international assistance to solve the crisis, noting that the Suez Canal Authority welcomed it, but when the time comes.
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Duban ruled out the existence of international or American pressure to accept a contribution to the solution, stressing that it is "a normal incident that is dealt with technically."
Duban, who was working as a geologist at the Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company (governmental), indicated that all the equipment needed for the different Egyptian scenarios is available or has been ordered.
Search for victory
For his part, economist Mustafa Shaheen attributed the Egyptian hesitation in accepting international efforts to "the search for a great victory in floating the ship," noting that "the entry of the West and Turkey on the crisis line and their floatation of the tanker would have been deducted from the balance of the Sisi regime in front of the people."
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Shaheen ruled out the existence of a conspiracy on the canal in favor of alternative corridors, including the Emirati-Israeli project (to transport Gulf oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean), and clarified that if the matter was intended, the Panamanian ship’s delinquency crisis would last a month or two, and this is supported by not asking for benefit. From other countries to solve the crisis.
He warned that Egypt is one of the most prominent losers in the tanker’s delinquency crisis, citing the official figures that the authority monitored for its material losses from the suspension of the canal, in addition to the losses of shipping companies that may head towards the Cape of Good Hope route, causing losses on all parties.
Not serious offers
The political science researcher Omar Samir agreed with the previous proposal, stressing that the issue is complex and there is what drives Egypt to hesitate to accept international contributions, adding to Al-Jazeera Net that the Egyptian position is to some extent related to national dignity, and that any contributor to resolving the canal crisis may have influence Wade on other issues.
He stated that the Sisi regime left matters until the company that owns the ship moved because he was confused about bearing any costs, or because it was a crisis that had not been measured before, at a time when it was not clear the limits of those responsible for the crisis.
On the offers of international participation to solve the crisis, Samir explained that Russia was not serious about its offer, while it was promoting the North Sea route as an alternative to the Suez Canal.
With regard to the United States, the Egyptian researcher believed that the arrival of advanced marine equipment may take more time, so that the Turkish supply system remains closer.
However, he believed that he was "unlikely to accept the sensitivity of the relationship, although the Turks may be serious even if they do not have the best equipment," warning of the repercussions of the continued reluctance to seek international expertise.
Profit and loss
Samir expected alternative waterways to benefit from the crisis, similar to the companies operating the Sumed line, which carries Gulf oil from the Egyptian port of Ain Sokhna in the Red Sea to the Egyptian port of Sidi Kerir as well, but on the Mediterranean.
He pointed out that the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, despite its limited capabilities, would also benefit from being a logical, less expensive alternative to the Cape of Good Hope in transporting liquefied gas, in addition to the East Med line, which is one of the projects that threaten the Egyptian Sumed pipeline, which Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Italy launched in early 2020.
According to the Egyptian researcher, among the beneficiaries of the crisis, according to the Egyptian researcher, are the North Sea Line, behind it Russia, and the giant Chinese express train for goods (it was announced years ago and connects China to the far reaches of Europe).
In light of the growing alternative lines and the Suez Canal crises, Samir warned of the decline of the strategic importance of the Egyptian shipping channel, unless its ports and logistics compete with their counterparts in Dubai and the ports of East Asia.