The Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement ... tactical or strategic?

There is an unmistakable rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, a rapprochement that did not start now, but rather dates back to late last year, specifically since last September, when the two parties exchanged signals to feel the pulse about the possibility of opening a dialogue at the security and strategic levels to address some outstanding issues, such as the Libyan issue and the file. Eastern Mediterranean Gas.

The dialogue has already begun at the intelligence level, as we read in the news later, and more than one session and meeting took place over the past months, the first of which was through the Egyptian and Turkish embassies in Algeria.

Numerous statements have been issued - especially from the Turkish side - over the past months, whether from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or his Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, indicating the desire to calm relations with Egypt and reduce tension and tension between them.

Although the Egyptian regime did not openly exchange the same language and signals from the Turkish side, there seem to be remarkable developments that have taken place behind closed doors since the beginning of this year in the relationship between the two countries, developments in which the regional and international changes that occurred over the course of The past weeks.

On the one hand, the Gulf reconciliation that took place on January 5 in the Saudi city of Al-Ula helped calm the state of regional polarization in general, which was reflected in one way or another on the policy of the axes in the region since the beginning of the Arab Spring about 10 years ago.

If the talks between the two countries were initially limited to the intelligence level, they have now moved to include other economic, commercial and perhaps political files as well.

On the other hand, the transformations that took place in the White House prompted many countries in the region to relocate and rearrange priorities in a way that allows for some changes to occur in their regional policies and stances.

The Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement has been evident in two important files during the past weeks, the first of which is the political situation in Libya, and the other file is the East Mediterranean gas file. The political settlement in Libya could not succeed and get the country out of the "bottleneck" without a minimum level of Egyptian-Turkish consensus. About it, especially since the two parties were - and perhaps still - support the main parties in the conflict, whether the retired Major General Khalifa Haftar's front in eastern Libya, or the previous government of reconciliation led by Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli.

Therefore, it was not surprising that the officials of the two countries welcomed the recent developments that took place in Libya, which reflected positively on the civil conflict raging there for more than 7 years.

As for the East Mediterranean gas file, Cairo was keen not to enter the line of the Turkish-Greek dispute over gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the delineation of special economic zones between Ankara and Athens, which Ankara understood as a goodwill gesture from Cairo that contributes to Enhancing the climate of trust between the two parties, and pushing forward the path of relations between the two countries.

And if the talks between the two countries were initially limited to the intelligence level, they have now moved to include other economic, commercial and perhaps political files as well.

Several days ago, news had been reported about the Turkish authorities ’request to the Egyptian opposition channels that broadcast from Turkey to“ control ”their media rhetoric, and to reduce the dose of criticism directed at the Egyptian regime, specifically against General Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, which was interpreted by some as further evidence of the rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey.

At the same time, unconfirmed news is circulating about a visit by the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service, Major General Abbas Kamel, to Turkey in order to coordinate the file of bilateral relations and discuss how to deal with the file of the "Muslim Brotherhood" and its leaders in Turkey.

Also, it seems that the recent developments in Egyptian-Turkish relations are linked in one way or another to an active Qatari diplomatic movement that we have observed over the past weeks aiming to move the pending regional files in a way that helps reduce tensions and differences in the region, especially between major countries such as Egypt and Turkey.

It would not be surprising if there was some Qatari role in melting the ice of relations between Cairo and Ankara, which contributed to pushing it to make some progress and build confidence between the two parties in preparation for the restoration of the official relations cut between them since late 2013 due to the repercussions of the July 3 coup.

However, all of these developments are still within the circle of "feeling the pulse" between the two countries, and - despite their importance and remarkable development - they are still within the tactical rather than the strategic framework.

In other words, it is too early to talk about a strategic shift in the positions of both countries towards each other, or that the full normalization of relations between them has become parentheses or less.