Analysts said today, Friday, that the container ship, which ran aground in the Suez Canal and stopped shipping and transporting goods through the waterway, will put pressure on global supply chains, which are experiencing a kind of disruption due to the recovery of economic activity and the scarcity of the supply of shipping containers, and it will also increase shipping costs.

The container ship "Ever Given" - which has a length of 400 meters - has been suspended in the canal since last Tuesday, which has disrupted the passage of containers transporting goods, components and equipment through the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

The suspension comes as shipments are disrupted due to the Corona pandemic and increased demand for goods.

Attempts to float the ship are still continuing, although rescue experts have warned that the process may take weeks.

Container handling activity affected

Moody's Investors Service said that about 30% of global container traffic passes through the canal annually, and the interruption of the commercial corridor may affect between 10% and 15% of the total global container handling activity throughout the downtime.

"The high consumer and industrial demand, the global shortage of container capacity and the decrease in services that can be relied upon by global container shipping companies ... have made supply chains severely threatened even by the slightest external shocks," she added in a note on Friday.

For his part, Greg Noller of IHS Markit Consulting said that the rate of ship operation is at full capacity on the trade route between Asia and Europe, due to the intense demand from European importers, while European ports are facing a shortage of labor due to measures related to combating the pandemic. Corona.

China overtakes the United States as Europe's largest trading partner in 2020, which highlights Asia's important relationship with industry and consumers in Europe, which is also the largest destination for Chinese exports outside Asia.

The IHS consultancy added in a note that the delay in returning empty containers to Asian exporters will further exacerbate the current container shortage.

She said the Suez Canal is also the preferred route for American importers of manufactured goods, such as shoes and clothing from Southeast Asia and India.

Ships may now have to take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding to their voyage about 7 to 10 days.

The automobile sector was the most affected

As a result, Moody's Investors Service said the European manufacturing and auto sectors - particularly auto suppliers - would be the hardest hit.

Analysts said, "This is because they run supply chains as needed, which means they do not stock up on ingredients and have enough on hand for a short period, and import ingredients from Asian manufacturers. Even if the situation is resolved quickly, port congestion and further delays occur in supply chains." Already restricted is inevitable. "

They added that alternative transport means are not suitable, as air freight capacity suffers from shortages due to the decrease in global air travel, while rail transport between Europe and Asia is limited, and is close to its full capacity.

The Minister of Transport in Singapore - the largest center for transshipment in the world - Aung Yi Kong said on Thursday that the suspension of navigation in the Suez Canal may cause a temporary disruption in supplies in the region, and may lead to a withdrawal of stocks.

"My view is that this will cause problems for many countries and industries around the world in the short term," said Sumate Agarwal, an economics professor at the National University of Singapore.

High shipping costs

The stoppage of the Suez Canal caused trouble, resulting in the nearly doubling of shipping costs for tankers of petroleum products this week, and the diversion of several ships away from the vital waterway, as the giant container ship remained stranded between its banks.

Analysts expect a greater impact on smaller tankers and petroleum products, such as naphtha and fuel oil exports from Europe to Asia, if the canal remains idle for weeks.

"About 20% of Asian naphtha is supplied from the Mediterranean or the Black Sea through the Suez Canal," Sri Paravikarasu, director of oil in Asia at FGE, said, adding that re-routing ships around the Cape of Good Hope might add about Two weeks to the flight time and more than 800 thousand tons of fuel consumption for the "Suez Max" class tankers.

Fuel is the ship's single largest cost source, and accounts for up to 60% of operating costs.