The restaurant closure is expected to end next Sunday, but it has been decided to continue it for at least another three weeks in areas in the spread and acceleration phase.
Read more: The restaurant closure will be extended by three weeks - these areas will be affected
THL and Hus believe that tighter restrictions are needed.
They require new restrictions on movement.
THL and Hus put forward three models of what might happen in the future to support their claims.
Model 1. Return to the former
Additional restrictions and restaurant closures will end on Sunday.
Finland will return to the situation at the end of February.
The R-number, which indicates infectivity, increases by about 10 percent.
The number of cases is growing rapidly.
The peak of the epidemic will be reached in mid-May.
In the Hus area, 1,200 cases would be detected per day.
About 50 new patients a day would seek hospital treatment.
After the peak, the epidemic would begin to fade as vaccinations and illnesses bring resistance to the corona.
The trough would be reached in early July.
2. The current restrictions continue
The current restrictions and restaurant closure will continue until the end of May.
The peak of the epidemic would be reached in early May.
During the peak, about 800 cases per day would be detected.
About 35 corona patients a day would be hospitalized on peak days and about five patients would be admitted to the intensive care unit.
More than 71,000 new cases of corona would be diagnosed in the Hus area in March-June, of which about 3,000 would be hospitalized and about 400 in intensive care.
There would be more than 200 deaths.
The epidemic would subside during June-July due to vaccinations, seasonality and illness.
3. Impose new restrictions on movement
In addition to the current restrictions, additional restrictions will be introduced for either three or six weeks.
Additional restrictions of three weeks reduce the R-infectivity rate to less than one.
Corona cases are temporarily declining from about 600 to 400 per day.
Additional restrictions of six weeks will have a more lasting effect as vaccinations and seasonality will help.
An additional restriction of three weeks would prevent nearly 11,000 infections compared to the current level of restrictions.
Additional restrictions for six weeks would prevent nearly 29,000 infections.
The reductions in hospital stays would be about 500 over three weeks and 1,100 over six weeks. Intensive care periods would decrease by 70 in three weeks and 150 in six weeks.
Life years would be saved by about 600 with a three-week lock and about 1,300 with a six-week lock.
Read more: STM admits: Restrictions on movement “indirect way” to intervene in home parties