For epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, the next few days of the epidemic have already been drawn in France.

He predicts that hospital blood pressure will continue to rise until it peaks in two weeks.

He also argues that the situation should remain very tense for caregivers for another 15 days after having crossed this higher. 

What if the worst is yet to come?

Faced with the rise of the third wave of Covid-19 in France, Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes, argues that "the coming month may be complicated" from a point of view. sanitary view.

Despite the entry into force of the confinement in 16 departments last weekend, and the probable placing of the Rhône, Aube and Nièvre in the near future, this specialist estimates that "the next 15 days have already been traced, since the people who will arrive at the hospital in Île-de-France and in the other confined departments have already been infected ". 

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A "worsening of hospital tension"

New patients who will continue to fill hospitals and resuscitation services, already on the verge of saturation in many territories, inexorably causing a "worsening of the tension".

From there perhaps to exceed the peak of serious cases in intensive care of the 2nd wave (4,900 on November 16), while the latest figures available indicate that 4,651 infected people are currently in these services. 

In three regions, Île-de-France, Hauts-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, the influx of patients is such that it has already forced hospitals to deprogram care and to "pushing the walls" to increase reception capacities for severe cases. 

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The epidemiological peak reached in 15 days

A situation therefore very delicate to manage, and which will remain so, even though "luckily this new confinement is effective", says Pascal Crépey.

Because in addition to pointing out that the peak of this wave of variants will only arrive within a fortnight, the epidemiologist recalls that "unfortunately once at the top, you have to go down again".

And the hospital pressure will be "very hard" during this period.

In short, "the coming month is likely to be complicated".