display

It is sentences like these that enrage many car enthusiasts in Germany: "Electromobility won the race," said Volkswagen boss Herbert Diess this week.

The message is that his group will in future fully rely on vehicles with batteries.

Not only VW is investing billions in new models, technologies and the conversion of its factories for an electrified future.

The internal combustion engine, this vibrating, roaring monster - it is being declared obsolete in the entire industry.

Engineers have long resisted this step, not least because of emotional ties, and many drivers resist the idea of ​​having to say goodbye to their gasoline or diesel engines.

But they don't have to do that for a long time.

The end of the internal combustion engine is even further away than it seems.

Some cars that still fill up with petrol today will even be given an almost eternal life by new technologies.

display

That does not mean that VW boss Diess' statement is wrong.

In fact, new cars in Europe, China, and parts of the United States are increasingly being powered by electric motors.

The automakers outdo each other with announcements of new electric models.

There should be 50 of the brands of the Volkswagen Group by 2030.

BMW plans to bring ten new all-electric models onto the market in the next two years alone.

Both manufacturers want to achieve an e-share of 50 percent of their global sales by the end of the decade.

Conversely, this means that every second new car will still be powered by an internal combustion engine.

In Europe, too, everything looks like the proponents of gasoline and diesel will still be able to buy cars with their favorite engines at the end of the decade.

VW plans for the continent with a battery-powered vehicle share of 60 percent in 2030. That leaves 40 percent of all new vehicles with internal combustion engines.

Unless the combustion engine is banned in the EU.

The Greens will probably set the year 2030 as the exit date in their program for the federal elections.

Other EU countries are more hesitant, France is aiming for 2040.

The UK, which has left the EU, has already decided on the Greens' 2030 target.

But if you take a closer look at the plan from London, it becomes clear that plug-in hybrid vehicles can come onto the market there by 2035.

display

The government will hardly be able to stop the trade in used cars.

And a ban on vehicles that are already on the road is completely unrealistic.

In England, gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to roll well into the next decade.

Even if Jaguar and Mini will only be available as battery cars from 2030 onwards.

In Germany, the old drive technologies will probably remain in traffic for a significantly longer period.

According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 48.2 million cars are currently registered in Germany, 309,000 of which are purely electric cars.

Together with plug-in hybrids, the existing cars do not even have a share of one percent.

The composition of this fleet is changing very slowly.

Even a rapid “ramp-up” of electromobility, as desired by politicians and car managers, will not change the situation in the foreseeable future.

The EU's path to make the transport sector climate neutral is designed for decades.

Their main lever are the fleet limits for the car companies, 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer the vehicles are allowed to emit on average, for every gram above that, fines in the millions are due.

Anyone who sells a lot of battery vehicles can significantly reduce their CO2 values.

display

The emissions of the wagons are set at zero grams and overweighted in the calculation, it is similar with plug-ins.

Mercedes-Benz and BMW responded to this regulation with a massive expansion of electrified models - and achieved their 2020 fleet targets.

Volkswagen just missed it.

Opel was able to meet the CO2 limit by removing models such as Cascada, Adam and Karl from the range.

Even if the commitments to climate protection such as that of BMW boss Oliver Zipse are meant seriously: the impetus for electrification ultimately comes from the state.

The corporations can only achieve the emissions targets, which are to be tightened again by 2030, with more battery-powered cars.

Alternatives such as green hydrogen or synthetic fuels will not be available in sufficient quantities in this decade to be used in car traffic.

Both variants are far inferior to the battery storage system in terms of energy balance, because enormous conversion losses occur during the production of hydrogen and eFuels and their use in cars.

These alternatives can only be worthwhile if the green electricity from which they are generated is produced extremely cheaply and in abundance.

There is no source for it yet.

Tech optimists hope it will be unlocked in the next decade.

The petro-industry plans to import such energy sources from countries like Saudi Arabia in the future.

There they could be generated from cheap solar power and come to Europe via the same supply chains as oil today.

The auto industry is also sticking to these alternatives despite all the battery euphoria.

BMW boss Zipse, for example, is clearly committed to technology openness: The new vehicle architecture, on which all of the Group's cars are to be built from 2025, is designed for the electric drive in the rear.

Instead of a battery, the cars can also be equipped with a fuel cell and a hydrogen tank.

An internal combustion engine would also be possible.

Even in the Volkswagen Group there is a small bastion that has committed itself to the eFuel vision: Porsche.

The sports car manufacturer is also propagating the turn to electric drives.

But in Zuffenhausen they also think of the cars that have long been produced and that will then still be on the road.

70 percent of all Porsches ever made are still in motion today.

In South America, the group is working with partners such as Siemens Energy to set up a test facility that will initially produce synthetic fuel from wind power on a small scale.

This eFuel will be very expensive in the beginning - and permanently above the current price level of gasoline.

Nevertheless, it is the hope of combustion engine fans.

Imported in large quantities, it could make old cars climate-neutral in operation - and thus more environmentally friendly than any new car in the overall balance sheet.

It is a distant vision.

But it would be a solution, also for the climate.