New containment measures should be announced in France on Thursday evening in order to fight against the coronavirus epidemic in Hauts-de-France and Île-de-France.

At the microphone of Europe 1 Thursday, public health professor Philippe Amouyel deciphers the impact of the different types of confinement tested in France.

Prime Minister Jean Castex and Minister of Health Olivier Véran should announce this Thursday at 6 p.m. new measures to fight against the Covid-19 epidemic in France.

In the government's viewfinder, there are two regions in particular, Hauts-de-France and Ile-de-France.

From strict confinement to confinement limited to weekends, many avenues have been mentioned.

Whatever solution is chosen, we now know more about the impact of restriction measures within the scientific community.

"If today we put in place a containment at the weekend, it would have an impact within two weeks on the circulation of the virus," said Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at the Lille University Hospital, Thursday on Europe 1.

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"A drop of 30% to 40% per day"

Regarding the entries in the intensive care units, it will be necessary to wait "two (additional) weeks probably", he underlines.

This explanation, the scientist draws in part from the observation of the first two confinements.

"When we set up containment, it will take about two weeks before the curves can start to slow down. Then another week to observe a drop in infection rates or resuscitation rates with the lag. in time."

This tendency to decrease curves, "once it is initiated, drops by about 30% to 40% per day," he says.

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"This is the experience we had with the first confinement but it is also the same experience we had with the second confinement."

Admittedly lightened, with in particular schools remained open, the second confinement had an impact similar to the first, according to the professor, with "a decrease of about 30% per week".

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And containment on weekends would also work.

"If we take the example of what happened in Dunkirk, today, after the third week, we realize that we have started to reduce the incidence which has gone from more than 1,000 to little nearly 500-600. But of course we have not yet had any effects on resuscitation, "he concludes.

For Philippe Amouyel, this is proof that weekend confinement has "a net effect".