Authorship or open assignment .. The maneuvers of Aoun and Hariri are a message from whom?

While Lebanon continues to slide towards collapse, the crisis situation did not accelerate the formation of the government;

Rather, the crisis between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri reached its climax, and in the opinion of many, it took a personal character, despite all the warnings about the dangers of this historic collapse that plagues the country.

Between escalation at times and calm at other times, the President-designate visited Baabda Palace today, Thursday, to meet Aoun, after a hot night of controversy that developed to exchange calls for an apology or resignation.

In the figure, it seemed that the two parties were pushing toward calm, by setting a date for their meeting next Monday.

But in terms of content, observers believe that obstacles remain as a result of each party taking hold behind its previous positions, with regard to the number of ministers and the distribution of portfolios.

On the one hand, Hariri considers that Aoun is obstructing the formation of the government by demanding what is known as the "blocking third."

That is, one-third of the number of ministers in the government, and the insistence on obtaining certain ministerial portfolios that would allow him to control decisions within the government.

On the other hand, Aoun's political team believes that Hariri wants to impose a government formation that does not adhere to the constitutional and constitutional standards, and does not respect the principle of "unity of standards."

Upon his exit from Baabda Palace, Hariri stressed his endeavor to form a government of 18 specialists, noting that "the goal of any government is to walk with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the process of stopping the collapse," to restore the confidence of the international community.

Later, the Presidency of the Republic announced that a date would be set for a meeting on Monday, so that "there are answers about the possibility of reaching a government as soon as possible."

With the passage of about 5 months since the House of Representatives assigned Hariri to form the government, this 17th meeting came after the fiercest exchange of words Wednesday night between Presidents Aoun and Hariri, and the struggle of the two men was exposed to the open.

Whereas the President of the Republic called on the Lebanese to call on Hariri to "step aside if he finds himself incapable" of forming the government, Hariri responded, calling on Aoun to "allow early presidential elections, if he finds himself unable to sign decrees to form a government of non-partisan specialists capable of implementing the required reforms." ".

To meet Baabda

Here, the question jumps about the possibility of relying on cooling the atmosphere between the two presidents in a meeting in Baabda to open new paths that push towards forming a government.

Although the contacts of political and security officials intensified in recent hours to bridge the gap between Aoun and Hariri;

However, journalist and political analyst Munir al-Rabee 'believes that the crisis is still raging between them, and that both of them are adhering to their contradictory vision of forming a government.

In his statement to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Rabee 'excludes that "the two are a prelude to forming the government, especially since Hariri reaffirmed his conditions for forming the government, which Aoun rejects."

The analyst is likely that Hariri wanted to deal with relative flexibility with Aoun, so he wanted to give people an impression.

They respond by snatching Aoun's invitation to meet him, and also to suggest to the international community that he is still seeking to form a government.

While Hariri considered that "there is no justification for the devaluation of the lira in this size," after the dollar’s ​​transactions in the parallel market touched the ceiling of 15 thousand pounds, in a historical precedent. Spring believes that Hariri wanted from his meeting with Aoun to limit the political causes that lead to the chaos of the price Dollar exchange;

"But no one guarantees that Lebanon will return to the same cycle if the Monday meeting fails," according to Al Rabeeh.

Protesters block a road in Lebanon to protest deteriorating living conditions (European)

Other items

On another level, writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub considers that "the internal data that prevented the formation of the government for about 5 months are still valid until this moment."

However, the Hariri and Aoun meeting opened a window to the political reality related to forming the government, and linking it to external elements whose developments outweighed the internal ones.

Especially after the hint of serious European sanctions that may be imposed on those who obstruct the formation of the government.

Ayoub believes, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, that "the message reached the political forces, and the American side became more flexible and moved from a state of negative neutrality to positive neutrality, despite the lack of direct involvement with the Lebanese file; The most recent was a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was active with the Director General of Lebanese Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, and in coordination with Hezbollah, on the line of calm between Aoun and Hariri.

Therefore, the analyst believes that the recent escalation between Aoun and Hariri has performed his job at the level of opening the doors of discussion and meeting them, which torpedoed the equation that Aoun was trying to impose on Hariri to "compose or apologize", so that Lebanon would enter a new equation stage;

Either the formation of the government, or the open mandate.

Other scenarios

Munir Al-Rabee` considers that Aoun's escalating message against Hariri aimed at two points:

First, informing Hezbollah that it is no longer able to proceed with Hariri with the same approach that prevails in the formation process, and secondly, because Aoun is under great pressure from the international community, which bears part of the responsibility for disrupting the formation of the government.

After the meeting with Aoun and Hariri, French President Emmanuel Macron said, "We need to change the approach and approach in the coming weeks regarding Lebanon."

Faced with the state of intractability and blockage that Lebanon is witnessing internally, many see it as regional and international extensions.

Therefore, Al-Rabeeh considers that "resolving the crisis cannot be achieved even by forming a government. Rather, it needs an external agreement, specifically Iran and the United States. Otherwise, we will go towards the great collapse, which some political forces are betting on will happen in search of a breakthrough."

This matter is supported by the researcher and political analyst, George Alam, and considers that forming the government requires a greater effort.

Because the differences still exist, even if it ends in clearing the confrontational atmosphere.

Alam believes - in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net - that Lebanon is still a prisoner of the US-Iranian conflict, and as long as Joe Biden’s administration did not issue a direct stance explaining its acceptance of forming a government in which Hezbollah is represented, “it means that the US veto imposed by Donald Trump's administration is still effective.”

The researcher says that if America lifted its veto on Hezbollah, an internal settlement would become possible. Otherwise, every search for a way out of the crisis is meaningless.

Nevertheless, it is considered that the major countries are aware of the dangers of leaving Lebanon to a total collapse, especially that European countries are wary of the fate of refugees and displaced persons in Lebanon, and that they resort to them to escape from the reality of Lebanon through illegal crossings, by sea and by land.

It is reported that the prospective government cannot perform miracles;

Because the settlements in the region are not yet clear, especially with the Iranian nuclear file and the Syrian crisis, "which means that Lebanon faces an existential threat, because the nature of the collapse in reality resembles a rush to suicide."

Accordingly, the researcher is not optimistic about Aoun and Hariri's negotiations.

Because what is required is that the two parties give up their conditions for forming a government, "especially since the destruction of the temple is not in anyone's interest, while the Lebanese have paid the price of corruption for decades ago."