Paris (AFP)

Is the stock market performance of pharmaceutical companies directly linked to their announcements of vaccines or treatments against Covid-19, or are things more complex?

Update on winners, losers, and more.

- Winners:

Getting into a vaccine against Covid is a bet that can prove to be a winner, in particular for "biotechs" like Moderna, whose trajectory has been transformed.

This American company had never marketed any molecules until December 2020, but was working on a potentially promising technology, messenger RNA.

The development of a vaccine blew up the course of its action.

From less than $ 20 at the end of December 2019, it exceeded $ 156 twelve months later.

Similar trajectory for the German biotech BioNTech, which has also developed a vaccine, backed by the American Pfizer.

Listed on the Nasdaq in New York, it saw its price soar from 35 dollars at the end of December 2019 to 127 dollars a year later.

For a more established pharmaceutical group like Pfizer, it is less spectacular.

However, over the last twelve months, the company has posted a market capitalization up by 25 billion, recalls Christophe Dombu, sector analyst for Portzamparc.

"Pfizer forecasts sales of $ 15 billion for its vaccine in 2021, very few + blockbusters + (note: treatments whose sales are in the billions of dollars) bring in as much," he said.

However, no need to have passed all the regulatory steps to climb on the stock market.

Thus, Valneva, Franco-Austrian biotech which is developing a vaccine still in the clinical trial phase.

The company saw its price multiplied by more than five between the end of 2019 and February 2021.

- Losers:

Rather, they find themselves on the side of groups that develop treatments - not vaccines - for the disease.

The French company Abivax, which was developing a potential treatment, saw its price rise gradually during 2020 before falling in early March by 25% in a single session.

The announcement of the end of his clinical trial had gone through this.

Performance differs greatly between vaccine developers and treatment developers, according to a study by GlobalData.

With, as more vaccines are approved, "a significant drop in market capitalization" of the latter, due to less demand for their drugs.

In the 4th quarter of 2020, the American Regeneron saw its price drop by more than 13%, even though its treatment based on monoclonal antibodies received an authorization for emergency use in the United States.

"Logically, it is more effective to prevent a disease than to manage it. Over time, the anti-Covid drug market will tend to crumble," notes Mr. Dembu.

However, the arrival of variants and vaccine production difficulties could breathe new life into treatment manufacturers.

- And complicated cases:

For large companies, things are complex, because vaccines are often not the core of their business.

The French Sanofi recorded a delay for the launch of its anti-Covid vaccine.

If on the day of this announcement, its stock fell around 4%, this has no impact on its results, boosted by other products, and the action has since regained ground.

However, the group, which has not yet developed any diagnostic tool, vaccine or treatment, has clearly missed out on "the opportunity", underlines Mr. Dombu.

As for AstraZeneca, which has gone through several turbulences between delays in deliveries and suspension of vaccination campaigns, its stock market course is certainly not in good shape.

The title is down more than 20% from a high in July 2020. However, Tuesday, the day after the suspension of its vaccine by Germany and France, the action gained more than 3% in London.

In a note, a Jefferies analyst was betting on a rebound in the title thanks to the diversification of the group.

In fact, anti-Covid vaccines will "probably not be the main engine of growth in the future for large pharmaceutical groups" traditionally specialized in vaccines, believes Jean-Jacques Le Fur, analyst for Bryan, Garnier & Co.

Not to mention, adds the specialist, that the vaccination campaigns augur in the markets a recovery of the economy.

But who says recovery, says investors who take more risks on the stock market, to the detriment of actions considered "defensive" ... like, precisely, those of the pharmaceutical industry.

© 2021 AFP