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Berlin (dpa) - In view of the ongoing Corona crisis, the "economic wise men" have lowered their economic forecast for 2021.
A decline in economic output is expected in the first quarter.
The Advisory Council announced this on Wednesday.
They also see the risk that a sharp increase in the number of infections could delay the economic recovery - especially if the industry were severely affected by restrictions and plant closures.
But there are opportunities for better economic development if the population is vaccinated faster than expected and restrictions are lifted, according to the «economic wise men».
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As a result of the renewed increase in the number of infections and the currently ongoing restrictions, the experts expect economic output in Germany to decline by around 2 percent in the first quarter.
For the current year, the Advisory Council expects gross domestic product in Germany to grow by 3.1 percent.
This has lowered previous expectations.
In the forecast presented in November, the experts still assumed GDP growth of 3.7 percent in 2021.
After a slump in economic output of 4.9 percent last year, the federal government is currently expecting growth of 3.0 percent in 2021. The federal government had also lowered its forecast.
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"As soon as it is possible to effectively limit the infection rate and vaccinate larger proportions of the population, the service areas that are severely affected by the contact restrictions or closings, such as the hospitality industry or stationary retail trade, are likely to revive," explained the "economy" Achim Truger.
"This should contribute to stronger growth."
The experts see a possible third wave of infections as the greatest risk for the economy in Germany - if this would lead to restrictions or even closures in industry.
In the spring, factories had to stop their production, also because international supply chains were interrupted.
This had led to a slump in economic output.
Industrial production is currently on the up, according to the Advisory Council.
The international supply chains are largely intact so far, and the demand for goods from Germany is increasing as the global economy continues to recover.
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The panel called on politicians to increase the speed of vaccinations.
"In order for Germany to reach the EU target of vaccinating 70 percent of the adult population by the end of September 2021, the current number of daily vaccinations in the vaccination centers must be increased by 50 percent", according to Veronika Grimm.
General practitioners and specialists should therefore be included in the vaccination process.
Politicians are planning this - but it is currently unclear when.
The council of experts for assessing macroeconomic development advises politicians.
The experts are colloquially referred to as the «economic wise men».
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210317-99-857388 / 2