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At least in Mainz's Bleichenviertel there is a hint of rebellion on Sunday afternoon.

This time he voted for the Left Party, says a man in his 50s who comes from a polling station in a high school.

It must finally be an end "with the hand cheese mafia", so the "clinking" in the current government.

A young couple, who come from the same bar, declare that they have also given their votes to the left.

That is the only party that represents their interests.

However, the first figures in the evening indicate that protest voters will remain in the minority in this state election.

Instead, the three parties that have already formed the previous government are consolidating their power:

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The SPD lands well over 30 percent.

The Greens book gains, the FDP remains stable.

The opposition CDU clearly misses its goal of replacing the Social Democrats as the strongest force.

Even before the election, polls had not predicted a mood of change.

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This is a continuation of a development that is unique in the Federal Republic of Germany.

The SPD has ruled Rhineland-Palatinate for 30 years - longer than in any other federal state.

Sometimes with the FDP, sometimes with the Greens, sometimes alone.

Since 2016 under Prime Minister Malu Dreyer in a traffic light coalition with the Greens and the FDP.

Can Malu Dreyer continue to govern with the Greens and the FDP?

According to initial forecasts, Malu Dreyer, with her SPD as the strongest party, is more clearly ahead of the CDU than expected.

Can she continue to govern with the Greens and the FDP in Rhineland-Palatinate?

Carsten Hädler analyzes the current numbers and possible coalitions.

Source: WORLD

The downward pull that caught the Social Democrats at the federal level largely spared the comrades in Rhineland-Palatinate.

This has above all to do with the SPD front woman Dreyer, whose image as a popular and skilfully tactical mother of the country outshines all scandals.

But also with the weakness of the CDU, which did not succeed in this election campaign to take its lead with its top candidate Christian Baldauf.

The Social Democrats had fared significantly better than the polls would have suggested, "because the SPD in Rhineland-Palatinate is a people's party," said country chief Roger Lewentz on the evening of the WELT election.

SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz said: "This is a victory that is due to Malu Dreyer."

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As early as 2019, the election strategists in the SPD began to sound out the topics with which they would go into the fight: the economy and education were identified.

It was also clear early on that the election campaign would be focused entirely on the top candidate and Prime Minister Dreyer.

Because the 60-year-old is extremely popular in contrast to the party.

Around half of those eligible to vote were satisfied with the work of Dreyer's government in the weeks leading up to the election, including CDU supporters.

Scandals rolled off the SPD and its coalition partners

Dreyer is a little more left-wing than her predecessor Kurt Beck, says party researcher Jürgen Falter from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz WELT.

But she knows "that one should never try in Rhineland-Palatinate to fight social democratic or even socialist ideas on a broad front."

Dreyer also has "the great advantage of combining obvious charm with considerable toughness, for example when she enforces decisions or appoints new ministries".

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Scandals, some of which occurred in the state government, ran off the SPD and its coalition partners, the FDP and the Greens.

In December, for example, the Green Environment Minister Ulrike Höfken had to vacate her post after the Koblenz Higher Administrative Court described the transport practice in the Environment Ministry as “grossly illegal”.

The Ministry had waived an assessment of officials in the case of promotions, the court spoke of "favoritism".

It later emerged that there had also been errors in promotions in the FDP-led economic department.

The municipal financial equalization also ended up in court after a highly indebted municipality sued.

The Constitutional Court in Koblenz ruled in December that the practice violated the state constitution.

But that was not reflected in the polls.

CDU challenger Baldauf declared in the final spurt of the election campaign that the government was a "permanent guest" at the court.

He could not benefit sufficiently from it.

The CDU was long ahead of the SPD in the polls.

But the closer the election date got, the smaller the difference became, similar to the election five years ago.

Party researcher Falter describes this as typical.

“Federal politics play a role between the elections.

Shortly before the elections, the issues of state politics come to the fore. ”The ruling party then increasingly benefits from the incumbent bonus.

An effect that increases in times of crisis.

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For Baldauf it was difficult to score against the omnipresent Prime Minister, who appeared in front of the camera after every Corona-Bund-Länder summit.

His awareness levels were low until January.

In addition, there were errors in the election campaign, which the SPD extensively cannibalized.

When the CDU held its party congress in Wiesbaden, Hesse, in January for economic reasons, the SPD accused it of “unpatriotic behavior”.

When a section of the Junge Union tweeted a picture of Dreyer on which her nose was disfigured, the SPD sensed an anti-Semitic imagery.

The CDU suddenly stood there as a party that lacks the feel for the correct address.

Baldauf himself is considered down-to-earth and approachable.

During the election campaign he went on a “listening tour”, promising improvements tailored to the individual regions: from maintaining clinics to more help for day-care centers nearby.

But some people doubted whether they had the format to beat the prime minister.

Observers have long described his attacks on government policy as too cautious.

In addition, there was the Union's mask affair in the federal government.

In the past few weeks, a lot has come up, "which has not given us a tailwind," complained Baldauf on the evening of the election.

One will now give "everything" to form a strong opposition.

Meanwhile, the SPD is preparing a new traffic light coalition.

"For me, a grand coalition is by no means an option if you can form a normal coalition," said SPD leader Lewentz.

Dreyer said on ZDF: She "always expressed herself very, very clearly: The SPD is striving to become the strongest force and to continue the traffic light coalition."