Russia will have an advantage over NATO countries in the event of a conflict in northern Europe.

Such conclusions are contained in the report of the state Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI) entitled "Military Potential of the West in Northern Europe - 2020: Part I - Collective Defense".

"While the content of Russian military action plans is unknown, the command structure, as far as can be judged, is well prepared and tested, as well as the movement and logistics of numerous forces on and near Russian territory," the document says.

According to FOI experts, the "gaps" in the overall defense training of the alliance "appear as a relative weakness in comparison with Russia."

"Some of them can be quite easily eliminated by joint efforts, while others depend on strengthening the national capabilities of the allies," the agency said.

We are talking, in particular, about the shortcomings “on such points as: previously designated command structures;

coordinated and more advanced planning for both deterrence and defense;

large-scale troop movements;

providing support to Forward Deployment Forces;

as well as large-scale maneuvers in accordance with Article 5 (NATO Treaty) ”.  

The authors of the report also believe that the military policy and doctrine of the Western alliance "is burdened with differences of views on threats and priorities, as well as unclear roles and responsibilities in the field of solving a number of problems related to issues of war and peace."

"In these conditions, we are faced with Russia with a thoroughly developed military concept covering the entire spectrum of conflicts, taking into account the possibility of coordinated use of both military and non-military means," the FOI states, noting that NATO's military strategy "needs to be improved." ...

From the point of view of Swedish analysts, significant problems in terms of the bloc's potential are due to the fact that "the forces of the alliance are distributed among many countries, their combat readiness remains at a low level, as well as the fact that they are not manned and not prepared for war."

“While it is clear that there has been an improvement in some parameters of the Forward Presence and Rapid Reaction Force, NATO still has difficulty recruiting the same ground force as Russia ... In case of high-intensity hostilities, Russian ground forces are better organized and better equipped. ...

Western ones are a mixture of heavy and light units, the quality of combat support and logistic support of which is generally much lower, ”the authors of the report say.

  • NATO exercises in Latvia

  • Reuters

  • © Ints Kalnins

FOI experts come to the conclusion that the Russian Armed Forces "are generally better prepared for serious military operations - at least in the conditions of ground combat within the framework of a short-term conflict."

“A serious military problem for Western countries is that Russia has more military availability and can launch a swift attack on NATO's eastern flank before the alliance can react.

In addition, in different parts of this flank, the parameters of such an attack may differ significantly, ”analysts write.

The document also refers to the war game, which was conducted by Swedish specialists.

Her scenario assumed "an attack by Russia on the Baltic states through the territory of Belarus, planned and carried out in the form of a limited war with the intention of a quick victory over NATO forces."

“In our war game, after several days of battle, the situation was clearly developing in favor of Russia: its armed forces carried out many of their tasks,” summed up the authors of the document.

NATO partner

Recall that Sweden has been a partner of the North Atlantic Alliance since 1994, but is not a member of the bloc.

In 2014, opportunities for dialogue and cooperation between the parties were expanded at the organization's summit in Wales.

The Swedish side is taking part in a number of military maneuvers of the bloc.

So, in 2018, Sweden conducted training with NATO partner countries as part of the Trident Juncture exercises in Norway - the largest in the last decade: about 50 thousand military personnel from 31 states, 10 thousand military vehicles, hundreds of aircraft and dozens of ships took part in them. ...

In March last year, the Swedish armed forces were involved in the maneuvers of NATO countries in northern Norway - Cold Response.

As the press service of the Norwegian Armed Forces clarified earlier, about 15 thousand soldiers from NATO countries and their partners were supposed to take part in them.

It was also noted that Cold Response are aimed "at practicing high-intensity combat operations in harsh winter conditions," as well as "actions to use the significant potential of amphibious forces and assets."

Later, in May 2020, a joint SWENEX exercise of NATO and Swedish ships took place in the waters of the Skagerrak Strait and the Baltic Sea.

In addition, last autumn, the Swedish parliament called on the country's government to consider the possibility of joining NATO because of Russia's actions in the defense sphere.

According to opposition MP Edward Riedl, who sent a corresponding proposal to the Riksdag, Sweden found itself "in a very serious position, since Russia has strengthened its military potential and is using it without hesitation."

  • NATO symbols

  • Reuters

  • © Yves Herman

At the same time, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted last February following talks with his Swedish counterpart Ann Linde, NATO has "unprecedented plans" to move towards the Russian borders, "to drag neutral countries such as like Sweden and Finland. "

Earlier, in August 2019, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the expansion of military cooperation of the alliance with Sweden and Finland, as well as the strengthening of NATO's presence in Eastern Europe.

Ambiguity of estimates

According to experts, the Swedish Defense Research Agency in its report only reflected the real facts.

“The quality of the Russian armed forces has really improved.

And we are talking here not only about new technology and new types of weapons, but also about general training, combat coordination, "military expert Alexei Leonkov explained in a conversation with RT.

Military expert Ivan Konovalov adheres to a similar point of view.

“It is extremely important that the Northern Fleet of Russia at the beginning of this year received the status of a military district.

Now it is an absolutely independent military-administrative unit with its own ground forces, anti-missile and air defense forces, aerospace forces, air forces and navy.

Do not forget that Russia has a single vertical of command, in which the period of time from the moment of making a decision to the actions of the troops was reduced to a minimum, "he said in an interview with RT.

In addition, from Konovalov's point of view, the report also "contains an eloquent hint" that the forces of the Western coalition are divided.

“In essence, it is about the fact that NATO is a cumbersome military organization, unable to respond quickly to challenges.

Indeed, in the block for joint actions, a huge number of approvals are required, ”he stated.

Despite the fact that the FOI as a whole soberly assessed the combat effectiveness of the Russian forces, the main thesis of all these analysts is that “Sweden is under threat and it needs to join NATO,” says Alexei Leonkov.

At the same time, he noted that the reasoning of the agency's employees regarding a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states "does not correspond to reality in any way."

“To the facts about the power of the Russian military, they stuck an outright lie, which says that Russia is supposedly going to attack someone, and also threatens the eastern flank of NATO.

In fact, if a Swedish institute read Russia's military doctrine, which is in the public domain, it would know that it is primarily about defense, there are no provisions on preventive strikes, offensive actions there, ”the analyst says.

He also stressed that, while developing the legends of military exercises, the Russian side, unlike NATO countries, does not designate a specific state or alliance.

  • Russian military

  • © Vitaly Timkiv

“There is only the phrase“ probable enemy ”.

In the bloc's maneuvers in recent years, Russia has been increasingly designated as an enemy, ”the expert said.

Ivan Konovalov, in turn, noted that in the context of the current information war unleashed by the West against Russia, it is beneficial for Swedish analysts to consider scenarios in which Moscow is presented as an aggressor.

“The fact that the Russian Federation is supposedly going to attack someone is a frank fantasy of FOI employees,” the analyst concluded.