Turkey has continued its approach to making positive statements towards Egypt, especially since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke last September about the possibility of his country conducting intelligence talks with Egypt at any time.
This statement was in response to a journalist's question about the existence of contacts with Egypt, with regard to defining areas of maritime jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean between the two countries.
An extension of those statements;
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin announced that Ankara "can open a new page in its relations with Egypt and a number of Gulf countries."
In statements published by the US Bloomberg Agency on Monday, Qalan described Egypt as "the heart and mind of the Arab world and has an important role in the region."
On the issues that the two sides want to solve, Qalan explained, "We are interested in talking with Egypt about maritime issues in the eastern Mediterranean, in addition to other issues in Libya, the peace process and the Palestinian issue."
And Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced last December that his country and Egypt "are seeking to define a roadmap regarding their bilateral relations."
"We are interested in talking about eastern Mediterranean issues." The Turkish presidency spokesman says that a new page can be opened in his country's relations with # Egypt and the Gulf countries. Pic.twitter.com/Nvr8WkcBPm
- Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) March 8, 2021
The Egyptian position
The official Turkish position is clear in its desire to reconnect with Egypt, but what about the official Egyptian position on this rapprochement, which Egyptian newspapers describe as Turkish spin?
Egypt considers these statements insufficient, according to a senior official in the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who preferred not to be named. He said, "We hear beautiful statements every time from officials I leave, but they alone are not enough, and they must be translated on the ground in a real and serious way."
The Egyptian official revealed that Turkey knows very well what it must do in order to restore relations between the two countries, adding, "We welcome such statements, but we do not build on them any step unless we see real steps by Ankara."
He stressed that there are many files related to regional issues that must be resolved, indicating that there is a clear Turkish approach regarding the desire for the return of relations, and "but we tell them to prove your good intentions."
Energy and marine frontiers
The past days witnessed an increase in Turkish positive statements towards Egypt, and two days ago, the Turkish Defense Minister praised Egypt's respect for the continental shelf of his country during its exploration activities in the Mediterranean, describing it as a very important development.
The Anadolu Agency quoted the Turkish minister as saying that the Egyptian decision to respect the Turkish maritime authority in the Mediterranean "is also in the interest of the rights and interests of the Egyptian people," adding that his country has common historical and cultural values with Egypt.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also did not rule out that Turkey and Egypt would negotiate the demarcation of the borders in the eastern Mediterranean, if relations between them allowed for such a step.
Cavusoglu said during a press conference in Ankara with his Georgian counterpart, a few days ago, that the exploration offers put forward by Egypt respected the continental shelf of Turkey, and that his country viewed this matter positively.
Last month, Egypt announced a bid to explore for oil and gas in 24 regions, some of them in the Mediterranean.
Core issues
But apart from the fundamental differences between the two countries on many regional issues related to the maritime borders and the crisis in Libya, there are other disagreements that cannot be overcome before they are first resolved, which is Ankara's position on the legitimacy of the Sisi regime.
Turkey also hosts Egyptian opposition figures on its soil, as well as satellite channels opposed to the Sisi regime, who spoke more than once criticizing countries that provide shelter to opposition media platforms.
Hence, a question emerges that is no less important about the course of relations between the two countries in light of that conciliatory Turkish dialect, which is the limits and dimensions of that normalization that Turkey wants with Egypt, and does it recognize President Sisi's regime, and will we witness a new Turkish ambassador taking the oath at the Presidential Palace in Cairo?
This is the fundamental point of disagreement between Egypt and Turkey, according to the former Turkish parliamentarian, Rasul Tosson, pointing out that "Turkey's position on the military coup that left thousands of victims is known to everyone, except for Egypt, a sister country, and its people are a brotherly people."
But the former Turkish parliamentarian, in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, believes that regional peace and stability is greater and more beneficial than the aforementioned dispute, pointing out that Turkey, regardless of the issue of the coup, is ready to open a new page with Egypt.
Toson stressed that the dispute harms Egypt and Turkey, but chaos harms the entire region, so the first step came from Turkey, and Egypt must respond positively, after that the steps will develop.
Since the first moments of the military coup in Egypt in the summer of 2013 under the leadership of then Minister of Defense Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Ankara has strongly opposed the overthrow of the late President Mohamed Morsi, based on its position rejecting coups as an undemocratic option, which led to the deterioration of relations between the two countries, but the commercial and economic relations between them continued. Normally.
Political flirtation
In the absence of clear official responses from Egypt to the recent Turkish statements, it seemed that Cairo had left the response to media close to the authority, as the journalist Osama Kamal devoted an episode of his program on the Al-Mehwar channel to the issue of relations with Turkey, believing that Egypt should look at its interests that they believe. It is not with the Turks.
The editor-in-chief of Al-Ahram newspaper, Ashraf Al-Ashry, also spoke about what he described as a list of Egyptian demands for accepting dialogue with Turkey, including closing what he described as "hostile media platforms and handing over leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood."
The Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies, which is believed to be close to Egyptian sovereign bodies, headed by the security expert, Brigadier Khaled Okasha, also published a research paper that talked about what it called the Turkish "political spin" of Egypt, stressing that the Egyptian position is related to what Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry announced regarding the need for consensus Turkish statements with policies.
According to the paper prepared by Nuran Awadin and published on Tuesday, there are 3 main determinants from the Egyptian point of view that impede the completion of Turkish-Egyptian cooperation, the first of which is the Turkish position on the "June 30 Revolution", the second is the rejection of Turkish interventions in the region, and the third is the rejection of the provocative Turkish practice in the Middle East region. .
The study linked the occurrence of a real rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey to the latter's taking of several steps, including the withdrawal of its forces from Libya, the closure of the Egyptian opposition channels that broadcast them from Turkey, the handing over of the wanted Brotherhood leaders, and even stopping the violation of the territorial sovereignty of both Iraq and Syria and stopping the violation of the maritime sovereignty of each of Cyprus. And Greece.
Convergence scenarios
On the other hand, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Dr. Essam Abdel-Shafi, believes that the future of relations between Egypt and Turkey and scenarios for rapprochement are governed by complex files, including the official Turkish position on the military coup in Egypt 2013, and the presence of a number of Egyptian opposition leaders and media channels in Turkey, as well as Turkey's role contrasted with the Egyptian role in Libya and the Egyptian policy in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Abdel Shafi added to Al-Jazeera Net, as well as the Egyptian positions on the issues of Syria and Iraq, in addition to the role of the Emirati party supporting the Egyptian regime in creating many political, security and economic crises for the Turkish regime, in addition to the repercussions of the Qatar blockade, and the Turkish supportive role for Qatar in facing the blockading countries, including Egypt.
In the face of these considerations, and with the multiplicity of official statements, whether from Turkey or Egypt, welcoming the strengthening of relations - and the talk is still for an academic who opposes the current authority in Egypt - but this is just a tactical shift and will not continue, as everyone is driven by the change of the American administration and Biden’s arrival to power.
He concluded his speech by saying that what is strange about the matter is that some Egyptian officials - while they are in a position of weakness - are talking about Turkey’s demand to provide guarantees and practical actions on the seriousness of its rapprochement with the Egyptian regime, adding, “As if Turkey is the one who needs the fragile regime in Egypt, not the other way around,” according to his description. .