• Pandemic Jair Bolsonaro to Brazilians, in full record of infections and deaths from Covid: "Stop whining"

  • Brazil The Brazilian Justice annuls the sentences against former President Lula da Silva, who may be a candidate in 2022

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is already a virtual candidate for the 2022 elections, and President Jair Bolsonaro was quick to react to the return of his more than likely rival at the polls: "It was a catastrophic PT administration in the government. I do not believe that the Brazilian people want a candidate like that in 2022, much less think about a possible victory of theirs, "he told a group of supporters yesterday.

The president admitted that the judicial decision that annulled the convictions for corruption and money laundering for irregularities in the process (Lula was not found innocent) caught everyone by surprise.

Bolsonaro activated the electoral rhetoric ("there is no doubt of the evil that he caused the country") and emphasized the significant stock market crash when it was learned that Lula could once again govern Brazil.

The bomb that fell in Brasilia with the political return of Lula makes Bolsonaro weaker than ever.

Worn out by the worst moment of the pandemic and the lack of vaccines

, but also by erratic economic policy and the return of the specter of inflation.

These are factors that could wear down the electorate that has remained faithful until now, around 30% of Brazilians.

It is very likely that Lula's reappearance will change the rules of the domestic political game, that Bolsonaro will definitely remove the

disguise of liberal

, of austerity and respect for the spending ceiling and embrace populist income-sharing measures to withstand the pull before his unexpected rival.

That explains the fears of the financial market as much as having Lula on the horizon.

Bolsonaro knows that having Lula in front of him

is a double-edged sword:

on the one hand, he puts him on a platter to repeat the discourse of antipetism and raise the flag of

fear of the return of the left

that gave him such good results in the last elections, but on the other, he knows that Lula

is the strongest rival

, perhaps the only one capable of beating him in the second turn.

In the 2018 elections, a week before Justice annulled his candidacy, Lula had 39% intention to vote, compared to 19% for the leader of the far right.

His last-minute substitute, Fernando Haddad, did not have enough popular pull to face the Bolsonarista wave.

In a way,

Bolsonaro is only president because Lula was not among the candidates.

Lula, in silence

In fact, when commenting on the annulment of the sentences, Lula's lawyers welcomed the decision, but stressed that

"it does not repair the damage caused to the former president,

the justice system and the democratic rule of law."

Lula himself, for the moment, has not said this mouth is mine.

A solemn pronouncement was expected in the São Bernardo do Campo metallurgical union, the place where he forged his political career and where he was embraced by the crowd upon his return from prison.

The press conference was canceled pending a possible new script twist.

After annulling the sentences, the Supreme Court judges got into an internal fight and began to vote on an

appeal that Lula's defense presented years ago

asking for the sentences to be annulled, alleging that Judge Sérgio Moro was never impartial.

The sentences are already annulled, but due to a

procedural irregularity

: Moro could not judge anything that was not related to Petrobras, and Lula's cases are not connected to the deviations in the oil company.

If the judges now agree with Lula's defense and decide that he did not have the right to a fair trial, he

would be totally clean.

It would be the moral victory, not just legal, that the former president seeks from the beginning.

Bolsonaro-Lula clash in the 2022 elections

With Lula in the field, Brazil

moves

back to the classic

right-left polarization

and the possibility that a moderate center-right candidate would occupy the place of an alternative to Bolsonarismo, something that until now seemed quite probable, is moving away.

That role was being disputed, among others, by the governor of São Paulo,

João Doria

, champion of vaccines and turned into Bolsonaro's scourge in the pandemic, or the television presenter Luciano Huck, with a still hypothetical but highly celebrated candidacy in the elites of the country.

Other names, such as the repentant Bolsonarians

Luiz Henrique Mandetta

(former Minister of Health) or Moro himself, a disgraced former Minister of Justice, have seen their political capital disappear as time passed.

There was nothing clear on the left either.

The hypothesis of a great broad front that would bring together all the progressive parties against Bolsonaro never came to fruition, due to the

quarrels between Lula's PT and Ciro Gomes

, who wanted to try a center-left alternative to petismo.

Now, that third way loses strength.

If there are no more surprises, everything points to a Bolsonaro-Lula confrontation in the second round.

October 2022 is just around the corner.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • Jair bolsonaro

  • Brazil

  • Lula da silva

  • Justice

  • Petrobras case

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